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新马甸甸 发表于 2023-11-20 20:34
什么情况,微信几个帖子都是明年初要降息,现在已经处在升息顶点,曙光就要来临? ...
Economists have more-or-less reached a consensus that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% in its final meeting before the summer break on November 29.
That’s where the agreement ends. There are two different schools of thought forming around where interest rates will go when the Monetary Policy Committee meets again in February.
Hawkish forecasters believe inflation has become embedded in the New Zealand economy and the central bank will have to lift the OCR further and hold it higher for longer.
Dovish forecasters think the meteoric monetary policy tightening will be more than enough to quell inflation and interest rates will have to be cut as economic activity buckles
目前的意见是分歧的,有些经济学家认为2024年年中,甚至年初就要下降ocr了,Tony alexander, Dovish, Luci Ellis (Westpac chief )是这方面的支持者。
有些经济学家认为是higher and longer, 目前利息会维持到2025 年中,甚至2026年。Hawkish 是其中的代表人物,他的观点比较激进,认为目前ocr还会升。
不管怎么样,最早2023年底开始降息这个预测,已经基本作废了。 |
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