今天围观拍卖

quinn

新西兰疫情确诊一例，如果还有多的确诊病例。对潜在卖家和买家信心打击力度都会很大，会对虚高房市喷了降温的冷水。今天真有可能是这波快速上涨行情的分水岭。

abc888

未来几个月，多头们应该天天去OPEN HOME房和拍卖室吧！！！几百万的利润等着你们呢！！管他病毒不病毒呢，冲啊！

yangranwu

哈哈哈，买不到房子的一个个打了鸡血一样，赶紧去超市多去囤点大米，吃饱饭保住命更重要，别关心房价了，跌了你们也是买不起

261874939

阿海 发表于 2020-2-28 19:31
快赶上2016年疯狂时期了。

将来半年OCR估计会跌2次，swap rate和纽币下降，也许利息会更低！2.99%利息的话 ...

海哥 现在几点？   

aprily

这个伊朗老太的作用现在还说不准。如果她能凭一己之力把新西兰的房价打下来，她在很多人心目中的形象会比圣母还要伟大，应该当选2020年新西兰风云人物哈哈。。。

房奴甲

疫情不太会影响房市。拍卖都可以电话的。

猩猩都叫兽

房奴甲 发表于 2020-2-29 09:12
疫情不太会影响房市。拍卖都可以电话的。

看房估计就没啥人了吧？如果病情发展起来的话。估计所有行业都要萧条一段时间。有可能网站业务会增加倒是。

yangranwu

猩猩都叫兽 发表于 2020-2-29 10:59
看房估计就没啥人了吧？如果病情发展起来的话。估计所有行业都要萧条一段时间。有可能网站业务会增加倒是 ...

现在就确定疫情要发展起来了？

儿科医生

Lease 发表于 2020-2-28 14:20
过于疯狂， 我觉得不可持续。

最后的疯狂

tiannz

yangranwu 发表于 2020-2-29 11:12
现在就确定疫情要发展起来了？

那个确诊病例到新西兰后接触的人，包括她飞机上乘客都有可能会传播，以现在新西兰政府这个防控力度，还真的挺危险

猩猩都叫兽

yangranwu 发表于 2020-2-29 11:12
现在就确定疫情要发展起来了？

没有啊，我是说如果疫情发展起来，请注意如果这个词。

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2020-2-28 15:33
The unitary plan is a new thing in Auckland when it first came out, people paid some $1 million abov ...

But if you went to supermarket last night, you may make different conclusion. People are crazy to accumulate living essentials, ie, food, beverage, tissues, etc.

If these actions continue, CPI will go up substantially. How do central bank control CPI? Rise OCR! This will be devastating for property market.

Another indicator I can quote is: China Feb PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI are just out today. The results are worse than 2008 GFC. https://www.scmp.com/economy/chi ... lunges-all-time-low

Be aware China supply most living essentials to many nations around world. If China is unable to supply, which is happening now, those nations would be short of essential supply and people are rushing to buy. The consequence is pushing CPI up and central banks have to raise rate.

yangranwu

Lease 发表于 2020-2-29 19:08
But if you went to supermarket last night, you may make different conclusion. People are crazy to  ...

就凭昨晚华人抢购就断定加息，我也是服了. 今天下午去超市就没什么人了.. 这次疫情美联储肯定要带头降息. 也正常，立场不一样，主观判断不一样，后面的所有理由都是为了那是正确的。年底看吧

Lease

yangranwu 发表于 2020-2-29 19:23
就凭昨晚华人抢购就断定加息，我也是服了. 今天下午去超市就没什么人了.. 这次疫情美联储肯定要带头降息. ...

I say "if" these actions continue. Don't miss the key word.

bungyjumping999

Lease 发表于 2020-2-29 19:42
I say "if" these actions continue. Don't miss the key word.

This action (food rushing) will not continue. IT IS herd mentality, fear-mongering. I drove around Countdown and newworld in mairangi bay areas this afternoon while sending my child to an Art Class, there is no rush in those supermarkets.I went to fruit world, fish shop as well, no rush at all.

The fear factor is real, but every fear and curveball there is a solution. The government, however, has no choice but to inject monetary easing and liquidity to the market in the next few months and looking for solutions, by then will further diluting the power of money.

i welcome the recent stock market declining, it is a good reset. A good opportunity for some.

房奴甲

猩猩都叫兽 发表于 2020-2-29 10:59
看房估计就没啥人了吧？如果病情发展起来的话。估计所有行业都要萧条一段时间。有可能网站业务会增加倒是 ...

像我这样喜欢约看的也没什么啊。约看就你自己。我不喜欢看open home。

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2020-2-29 20:48
This action (food rushing) will not continue. IT IS herd mentality, fear-mongering. I drove around  ...

Well, if coronavirus spread over, more and more people are infected in this country. Then you can't say "the rush" will not continue. And if the rush continues, CPI will shot up, and do you still think central bank will ease monetary policy?

Surely at this stage, I still think the coronavirus impact is short-term and one-off event. I'm also buying some stocks which I have waited their price drop for a while.

However, we can't rule out the coronavirus may continue longer than expected, and have severe economic consequence.

bungyjumping999

Lease 发表于 2020-2-29 21:17
Well, if coronavirus spread over, more and more people are infected in this country. Then you can' ...

If more workplaces closing down, schools closing down, more shops closing down because of this pandemic,  the government will go soft on businesses, investors and even put interest into 1% or less.

The food these people bought is enough for them to eat for a few weeks or months, they can stay home and eat their food and no need to go shopping or eating out in the next few months.

This means there will be fewer people shopping in the next few weeks/months as some have done their shopping in advance for fear of missing out.

Anyway, I personally do not see this virus has a long term effect, and I bet on that and that is my position.

猩猩都叫兽

房奴甲 发表于 2020-2-29 21:10
像我这样喜欢约看的也没什么啊。约看就你自己。我不喜欢看open home。

我不喜欢约看。一是平时没时间。二是我也不喜欢单人看那种感觉。要是不买，会觉得浪费中介时间，心理过意不去总觉得。中介也会特别盯着你感觉不像Open home去的比较舒心没压力。

V7

aprily 发表于 2020-2-29 00:45
这个伊朗老太的作用现在还说不准。如果她能凭一己之力把新西兰的房价打下来，她在很多人心目中的形象会比圣 ...

哈哈哈哈哈哈！！！！

yuwawa

如果你的房子对了小开发商的胃口
那么恭喜你 这类屋主 你的“春天”来了

goodmood

现金为王。。。。。。。。。

房奴甲

猩猩都叫兽 发表于 2020-3-2 10:21
我不喜欢约看。一是平时没时间。二是我也不喜欢单人看那种感觉。要是不买，会觉得浪费中介时间，心理过意 ...

我喜欢约看，因为可以随便问中介问题，对方一般不敷衍。我是不会对中介感到心理过意不去的。而且对方盯着我还是不盯着我，我是几乎不会注意到的，更不在乎。约看时还可以跟中介聊聊，经常能聊出有用的内容。Open home嘛，你知道最糟糕的一点是什么？是如果人很多的话，你就容易想买这个房子。这是个很不利于买家的场合。

猩猩都叫兽

房奴甲 发表于 2020-3-2 21:15
我喜欢约看，因为可以随便问中介问题，对方一般不敷衍。我是不会对中介感到心理过意不去的。而且对方盯着 ...

问题是你约看，可能看不到这个房子的受欢迎程度哈哈。不好对价格做判断。应该先Open home看看，再约下。如果真喜欢的话。我是不会上来就约的反正。除非真的是时间不合适，或者特别想买那个等不及Open home哈哈

yangranwu

今天东区拍卖上半场又是人满为患，目测清盘率80% 等崩盘的再等等

ptliao0318

不知道现在是港人买还是澳大利亚人，还是中国人还是本地kiwi买?感觉看房的还很多.价格还很高

bungyjumping999

1) People who bought in years 2000 -2016 onward at the price range of $400K investment houses would have paid back their mortgage and have plenty of money lying around.

Some of them held a number of houses in that period, they are the people who are coming in to buy houses in this round.

Many of them are now receiving good rents for their properties and have good cash flow. They don't even need to sell, just add more properties to their portfolio.

2) Many returning overseas PR / Kiwi, they paid little tax while working overseas and managed to have good savings (investments) as compared with their peers who stayed back in NZ (part of their salaries are swallowed by tax). These people are now returning with their children for schoolings/universities. Their level of saving will put them in a much competitive position than the locals.


3) Economic downturn and recession always lead the government to consider opening up immigration. NZ has a vast aging population, the balance is getting younger immigrants to balance up the aging population. I read an article that said if NZ is left with natural population growth, it will take 8 years to increase just 20,000 people (ie natural-born and death). Immigration is an inevitable path for NZ, the policy, however, will gear towards more quality immigrants in the future.