话题：房产是否有泡沫

quad5

holoman 发表于 2015-5-7 16:41
引用一个2005年美联储主席的采访

July 2005

哈哈。。。 wt a joke。

quad5

"I think it's important to note that fundamentals are also very strong. We've got a growing economy, jobs, incomes. We've got very low mortgage rates. We've got demographics supporting housing growth. We've got restricted supply in some places. So it's certainly understandable that prices would go up some. I don't know whether prices are exactly where they should be, but I think it's fair to say that much of what's happened is supported by the strength of the economy."

quad5

quad5 发表于 2015-5-7 16:57
"I think it's important to note that fundamentals are also very strong. We've got a growing economy, ...

这不就是现在新西兰经济的写照吗？

微苦蓝山

If you really believe that the govt steamrolling the council will 'solve' the Auckland housing crisis, you really are living in the cookooland of 'Planet Key', which bears no relationship to the real world.

This crisis is driven by multiple factors, and ignoring some of those factors, or pretending they are of little importance, and that the crisis can just be solved by building zillions of houses, is lunacy.

There is also the issue of what size should our largest city be? Many would argue that it is already too big, and that for graphic evidence of this, one only has to attempt to drive on Auckland's motorways in rush hour.

Attempting to apply simplistic solutions, driven by extremist ideological dogma rather than sensible analysis, to a complex problem only results in simplistic failure.

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以上是今天Mike Hoskin在先驱报网页的一篇文章后的留言，很精彩，80多个赞。。。。

quad5

同意其观点。。。

love_3_month

今天ANZ的老板也讲话了。。。

talkaboutvision

love_3_month 发表于 2015-5-12 09:01
今天ANZ的老板也讲话了。。。

Right now, I wouldn't buy unless I had to find a place to live. Net property yields are quite low and there are other reasonable yields around that are more liquid than property if investing is what you want to do

深以为然

后文车妖

微苦蓝山 发表于 2015-5-7 17:58
If you really believe that the govt steamrolling the council will 'solve' the Auckland housing crisi ...

Should I interpret the second half as less central govt supports to AKL? That's what I exactly meant in my previous posts here.

sammy1112

就让时间证明一切吧

love_3_month

talkaboutvision 发表于 2015-5-12 10:03
Right now, I wouldn't buy unless I had to find a place to live. Net property yields are quite low  ...

都是赌capital gain的人，如果几年之内卖掉都应该收税。。。。

^$^

quad5 发表于 2015-5-7 09:42
房价高涨，绝不是供需矛盾。 房产短缺是房产投机逐利造成的假象。有房的握有大把投资房想赚钱， 租房的人也 ...

泡沫快破了，现在大部分的区出租房超过出售房。租金还那么低。

Z4018

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-7 09:45
No.

Less central governmental supports in AKL could be beneficiary. Or saying, giving higher and ...

what suppots in CHC, WGTN and others for example please?????

Z4018

love_3_month 发表于 2015-5-12 10:35
都是赌capital gain的人，如果几年之内卖掉都应该收税。。。。

看看悉尼吧，人家是实现二套房的CGT，但人家的房价却势如长虹，年涨幅16%以上，远超奥克兰。

说明了什么？？？说明了CGT并不能抑制房价，相反会助长火势，正所谓“羊毛出在羊身上”，一旦出现卖方市场，这部分的税就到加到买家身上。

love_3_month

Z4018 发表于 2015-5-12 20:17
看看悉尼吧，人家是实现二套房的CGT，但人家的房价却势如长虹，年涨幅16%以上，远超奥克兰。

说明了什么 ...

我没说这个税会抑制房价

我的意思是，现在的政策是，目的只要是为了卖房的利润，就要收税。但是这个目的很难界定，所以以目前的市场，只要是买了之后几年卖掉的，都属于炒房

Z4018

love_3_month 发表于 2015-5-12 20:21
我没说这个税会抑制房价

我的意思是，现在的政策是，目的只要是为了卖房的利润，就要收税。但是这个目的 ...

超过10年应该不算炒吧？？？三月兄。

后文车妖

Z4018 发表于 2015-5-12 20:00
what suppots in CHC, WGTN and others for example please?????

Infrastructure. That's the only major thing central government can do now. Government might issue other policies, for example, restricting the oversea buyer or imposing tax on the capital gain from selling a house. These are meaningless and ineffective.   

Z4018

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 09:57
Infrastructure. That's the only major thing central government can do now. Government might issue  ...

hi man, I don't think the policies can work as redirecting the flow of immigration to other cities and cutting off the regional demand in AKL as you said at 10#.

the good polices are those encouraging people to other cities for example finance award for purchasing properties outside of AKL or lower LVR or other allowance for that.

the immigrants bring much money. that is why the property market going up. the key words are money and demand. that is all.

love_3_month

去陌生的国家工作生活，肯定是选择最接近国际化的城市啦，当然也有小众选择，挑山明水秀的地方，但大头肯定是在那么几个大城市里面

前三位，基督城有地震，惠灵顿近来也常有地震，连国际机场都没有。。。人口都只有奥克兰的几分之一，能分的了多少移民。。。

clam

love_3_month 发表于 2015-5-13 20:40
去陌生的国家工作生活，肯定是选择最接近国际化的城市啦，当然也有小众选择，挑山明水秀的地方，但大头肯定 ...

沒有國際機場是重點, 我看要是tauranga 弄個國際機場, 有國內直航的話, 房價也會很高......

love_3_month

clam 发表于 2015-5-13 20:42
沒有國際機場是重點, 我看要是tauranga 弄個國際機場, 有國內直航的話, 房價也會很高......  ...

退休人士的最爱啊

后文车妖

clam 发表于 2015-5-13 20:42
沒有國際機場是重點, 我看要是tauranga 弄個國際機場, 有國內直航的話, 房價也會很高......  ...

What I suggested of cutting off the international flight in AKL for depreciating the AKL house price is not a joke in some senses.   

后文车妖

Z4018 发表于 2015-5-13 20:35
hi man, I don't think the policies can work as redirecting the flow of immigration to other cities ...

Let's back to the concept of "Policy".

What is policy? A document with signatures of ministers and royal seals on it? No, that is not policy. A policy is a deliberate system of principles to guide decisions and achieve rational outcomes. A policy is a statement of intent, and is implemented as a procedure or protocol. Policy, sometimes, reflects the willing of the capital interests as we mainlander often say NZ is a "capitalism" country. Rarely we know that, some critical infrastructures in NZ are completely or partially own by private sectors. How much do you pay for AKL bus fares? Do you think it is cheap? Do some researches here, then you will understand why I am saying the infrastructure will be the next targeting area that statemen will fire on. There is no need for the central government to offer the financial reward to those who have willing not live in AKL, and, no offence, I think it is stupid idea. They only need to put new guide on administrative approvals and other possible supports for helping those capitals seeking better outcome from infrastructures (NOT you poor immigrants).

Z4018

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-14 09:17
Let's back to the concept of "Policy".

What is policy? A document with signatures of ministers an ...

yes, I am a poor immigrant, NOT like you, a rich local.

despite of that, ok, let's back to the topic, I think you confuse of two different concepts, one is the flowing of fund and the other one is the flowing of the immigrants. the could be some linkage between them but not certain.

ok, bro, just ignore me. enjoy your conversation with others. thanks.

james68

JSPMachine 发表于 2015-5-7 11:36
我们不能中了 洋人的 计策： 限制移民
谁提出后，以后会被引用，就成了华人提出的了，而洋人脱离了关系，还 ...

从经济学上说， 房价上涨是经济衰退的产物。

感觉这话很对。

没有数据支持，感觉真的是这样。 很多做生意的都说生意比以前难做多了。 但是A方说经济好的很。

james68

GreatCursER 发表于 2015-5-7 15:09
没啥泡沫啊

真的没有泡沫呀。好像有个球。。。。。。。

后文车妖

Z4018 发表于 2015-5-14 17:44
yes, I am a poor immigrant, NOT like you, a rich local.

despite of that, ok, let's back to the t ...

"Not you immigrants" is a way of saying "Not immigrants like us" in Chinese.

love_3_month

这英文太容易误解了啊。。。。

Z4018

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-14 22:06
"Not you immigrants" is a way of saying "Not immigrants like us" in Chinese.

Ha, what did you mean here? All mistakes were due to your poor Chinglish, weren't they?

系統當機

我只知道投資房產的似乎看不到目前經濟有多差.做生意的一家一家關店.這兩年業績掉了50%.房價卻增長了50%-100%.
國內內部資金沒有流通.外國投資人把錢拿來買房.錢流入銀行裡.本地人再把錢從銀行借出來買房.每一次轉手都+上了幾萬.到底來說就這些錢一直再轉手再轉手.萬一外國投資人不玩了.賺了就抽手.大錢沒了.剩下的錢要平均留下給國內投資房產的人負擔.到時候看誰的房多誰就死的快...

猩猩都叫兽

系統當機 发表于 2015-5-16 18:03
我只知道投資房產的似乎看不到目前經濟有多差.做生意的一家一家關店.這兩年業績掉了50%.房價卻增長了50%-10 ...

真正外国投资者还是少数，所以这部分人撤资与否我不觉的会怎么样的影响房价。现在买的猛的都是pr, citizen，我认识的纯overseas买的大都也是创业移民群体，是打算长期在此定居生活的。本着明天买更贵的心理在买自住或者投资，不太在乎回报率。觉得房价高的都是从本地的角度看，但是奥克兰是移民城市，所以比房价不能光和本地收入比，而要和移民来源国比，和那的房价比。我第一次买房40万都觉得很贵了，很难承受，后来投资100万都觉得便宜。不是房价涨了，是我们看问题的角度不同了。自住只考虑身上贷款负担，投资考虑回报