paulwood 发表于 2024-6-24 09:15
难道你想新西兰也像中国,日本一样进入老龄化社会?
逃不掉了
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/02/sociologist-paul-spoonley-explains-why-new-zealand-s-demography-is-becoming-a-huge-fiscal-challenge.html
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/05/kiwis-warned-to-prepare-for-population-crisis-learn-from-japan-s-mistakes.html
So by the 2030s, a very different New Zealand will have emerged and at the Economic Forum, what I'm hoping to say is, remember people, remember our demography, not simply focus on the economic factors because that dropping fertility, rapid ageing, 1 in 4 of us will be aged over 65.
When we look out ten years, if we look at the under 15 or under 25 population, the Māori population will continue to grow proportionate to the whole population. 1 in 20 of us will self-identify as Māori
Prof Spoonley said an aging population is expensive, as the dependency ratio changes, which is the number of people in paid work compared to those receiving a pension or superannuation. "Typically that ratio would be four or five to one. So, four people or five people in work compared to one on a benefit," he said. "However, we're really looking more like three to one, or two to one. So, the financial dynamics of societies basically has to change. And when you get a ratio, a dependency ratio which is two or three to one, then you've got a problem."
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