ZT:空军的春天来了？Is Auckland's housing bubble going to burst?

NewLynnHse

QV: Auckland house values up less than 1pc

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11573105

Auckland's house value increases slowed to almost snail's pace last month, up less than 1 per cent.

Quotable Value has just released the latest quarterly and monthly data and, as expected, Auckland was up only marginally by 0.2 per cent in December.

December and January are usually the slowest months of the year for the housing sector, due to the holidays and Barfoot & Thompson data out last week also showed a marked decrease in activity.


But over a longer time-frame, Auckland values continued to rise fast.

"Home values in the Auckland region increased 22.5 per cent or $171,406 from $761,858 at December 2014 to $933,264 at December 2015," QV said.

"They rose 4.1 per cent over the past three months but only 0.2 per cent over the final month of the year. They are now 70.8 per cent higher than the previous peak of 2007," QV said in a commentary headed 'Year-end sees Auckland housing market slow while other centres on the rise'.

Auckland region's average current value now stands at $933,264, more than double Wellington's $476,634 and well above New Zealand's average $558,146.

North Shore values now stand at $1,089,745, up 22 per cent annually and 3.6 per cent in the last three months to December compared to the previous three months.

Following the introduction of the new measures in October and November, the rate of growth in the Auckland market slowed, while values in many other centres including Wellington and Dunedin saw significant value increases in the three months of the year.
Auckland City values are now $1,095,838, up 20.7 per cent annually and 3.7 per cent in the last quarter.

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angelvan2012

文不对题啊   

boxrunboxrun

burst bubbles or burst a nut?

留言

跌跌更健康， 不过， 啥时候跌啊            

paulwood

光脚大叔说的：那是夏季大家都忙着度假，没空买房。价格比1年前同期还是高很多。

"Sales data for the final month of the year is sending mixed messages as to where the market will head in 2016," said Peter Thompson.

"The average sales price for December at $869,492 was down only 0.8 percent on November's record average price while the median price rose to an all-time high of $800,000, up 0.6 percent on that for November.

"From a price perspective, the market was rock steady.

"Sales for the month at 796 were 19.3 percent lower than in November, and it was the lowest number of sales in a December for 4 years.

December's sales were also the lowest in any month for the past 22 months.

"While in December new listings at 757 were down 55 percent on those in November, this level of decline is quite normal and they were the highest in a December for 4 years.

"The factor most likely to impact on January sales was the extremely low number of listings at the end of December which, at 2431, was down 25.2 percent on those in November, and the lowest number for any month for more than 20 years.

"With a growing population and the number of new builds failing to keep pace with demand, competition for properties is likely to remain strong in the first quarter of 2016.

"January's sales data is always influenced by the summer holiday period, and it is likely to be mid March - when February's sales data is available - that a clearer understanding of prospects for 2016 emerge.

"What is clear, however, is that with so few properties on the market, now is an excellent time to list.

"In December, 278 properties sold for in excess of $1 million and a further 202 for in excess of $750,000.

"Sales of properties in the under $500,000 price category were 44, representing 5.5 percent of all sales.

"In 2015, the average sale price of homes for the full year was $817,096, an increase of 14 percent on that for 2014, and 25.8 percent over 2013's average sales price.

"The median price for 2015 was $755,333, 17.4 percent higher than 2014's median price and 30.5 percent higher than that for 2013."

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market ... ember/market-update

Time period        Number of sales*        Total value of sales
December 2015        796 properties        $692,115,749
December 2014        1,050 properties        $796,836,136
12 months to December 2015        13,729 properties
$11,153,975,411
12 months to December 2014        12,009 properties        $8,580,259,542

kaiser2006

投资房产如何做空？请解答。

paulwood

paulwood 发表于 2016-1-13 16:28
光脚大叔说的：那是夏季大家都忙着度假，没空买房。价格比1年前同期还是高很多。

"Sales data for the fin ...

今年12月的$869,491年前同期12月$758,891还是高很多。

paulwood

kaiser2006 发表于 2016-1-13 16:30
投资房产如何做空？请解答。

卖空小银行的股票即可。

NewLynnHse

paulwood 发表于 2016-1-13 17:40
今年12月的$869,491年前同期12月$758,891还是高很多。

可以不要打破空军们的梦想吗？

paulwood

NewLynnHse 发表于 2016-1-13 21:12
可以不要打破空军们的梦想吗？

要作梦到南岛，奥克兰是断梦山

http://money.skykiwi.com/realestate/2015-12-28/210678.shtml

songinator

平稳好    腰斩更好   进货时间到了

完美之诺

songinator 发表于 2016-1-14 10:28
平稳好    腰斩更好   进货时间到了

有你这样思想的人太多了。。。。所以房价就是跌不下来，稍微跌下就立马有人买进

Tentstar

NewLynnHse 发表于 2016-1-13 22:12
可以不要打破空军们的梦想吗？

版主这素质，值得我们学习哈！全年涨了不少，10、11、12月涨了4.1%，12月涨了0.2%，但是成交量明显下降。这传递一个怎样的信息？

songinator

完美之诺 发表于 2016-1-14 09:32
有你这样思想的人太多了。。。。所以房价就是跌不下来，稍微跌下就立马有人买进 ...

                    

paulwood

与其临渊羡鱼 不如退而结网，当年听我的，在 $2.70 买入 Trademe 股票的，现在都赚满了。

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/TME

winny

赶紧买吧        

paulwood

援引NZherald消息 尽管奥克兰的房市正在经历传说中的冷淡期，甚至有经济学家表示奥克兰房价即将下跌。奥克兰南部的一些地区涨幅喜人，为去年在南区买房的投资者带来了可观的收益。

　　来自CoreLogic 的数据显示，去年奥克兰房价增长最快的是南部的Weymouth 地区，房屋中位价增长了接近32%，达到了$554,500。与之对应的是奥克兰涨幅最低的地区，来自奥克兰北部的Tawharanui Peninsula，去年房屋中位价仅仅上涨了9.1%，达到$940,050。

　　CoreLogic的高级分析师 Nick Goodall表示，过去十二个月中价格增长最快的都是市场中的低端房源。

　　“在整个市场都在增长的情况下，便宜的低端房源通常涨的更快，因为市场中无论是投资者，首次购房者还是搬家一族都热衷于价格更低一些的房源，这种现象在增长的市场中很常见。”

　　奥克兰房价增速前十名的区域房价均低于奥克兰目前的中位价，尽管价格不到中位价的$933,264，但是增速都超过了平均涨幅的22.5%。

　　贷款行业资深人士Bruce Patten表示，奥克兰南部房价飞速增长反映了投资者仍然没有离开，相比奥克兰其他地区，这里的资本回报率要高得多。有些地区房价增速已经不仅仅是喜人了，而是有点“吓人”，“如果未来的十二个月还保持着这样的增长速度，很可能会产生房产泡沫”。

　　Westpac经济学家Dominick Stephens昨日曾表示2016年第一季度奥克兰房价将下跌。并且对Interest.co.nz表示，“奥克兰房屋成交量下滑了30%，下一步就会是房屋价格下滑了”。

　　昨日公布的QV数据中也显示了奥克兰房价在去年最后三个月中增速放缓，然而前九个月的增速即使在上世纪90年代也不曾见过。

不要和我提那些 Westpac经济学家，9年前我听他们说利率已到底了，所以把50%贷款设为5年 Fixed， 悔得肠子都青了。

NewLynnHse

paulwood 发表于 2016-1-15 05:26
援引NZherald消息 尽管奥克兰的房市正在经历传说中的冷淡期，甚至有经济学家表示奥克兰房价即将下跌。奥克 ...

哇塞？2007年的利率是谷底？哈哈，经济学家。不知道为什么搞经济的都那么混饭吃。还有租房的首席经济师，不过也有可能是在等腰斩。。。哈哈

paulwood

两年前破储备银行总裁就说 Auckland 房市泡沫要垮了，过去两年 Auckland 的房价涨幅，大家是有目共睹。

The Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler has defended new rules that restrict home loans, warning the housing market could crash and burn without them.

http://www.3news.co.nz/business/ ... 11317#axzz3xFInGCPB

Lease

所以，与其去相信这些经济学家，行长，财长等，还真不如相信我Lease.

paulwood