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先森表酱紫嘛

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量价齐跌                                   

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先森表酱紫嘛 发表于 2018-7-16 22:06
你的数据6月只是7月新政关门前的小抢购潮而已，即使这样都才只有1%，还跑输通胀。 ...

跑不跑输通胀无所谓啦，在你预测的房价40%下跌面前，感觉是个数据就能跑赢你哈哈哈

先森表酱紫嘛

tauno 发表于 2018-7-16 21:58
签一个数字是06/17， 后一个是06/18，qv的统计 average property values，对大多数屋主来说，还是提气的
-  ...

你的数据6月只是7月新政关门前的小抢购潮而已，即使这样都才只有1%，还跑输通胀。

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tauno 发表于 2018-7-16 21:58
签一个数字是06/17， 后一个是06/18，qv的统计 average property values，对大多数屋主来说，还是提气的
-  ...

满眼暴跌腰斩啊...

tauno

签一个数字是06/17， 后一个是06/18，qv的统计 average property values，对大多数屋主来说，还是提气的。经常被鄙视的papakura 领涨第二名，接着就是manukau central。投资看眼光，不要靠名气。
- Auckland Area        $1,053,575        $1,045,059        0.8%   
- Auckland City - Central        $1,083,584        $1,073,116        1.0%   
- Auckland City - Islands        $1,175,112        $1,099,383        6.9%   
- Auckland City - South        $1,105,723        $1,103,498        0.2%   
- Auckland_City - East        $1,564,605        $1,534,921        1.9%   
- Manukau - Central        $699,672        $684,184        2.3%   
- Manukau - East        $1,155,930        $1,169,679        -1.2%   
- Manukau - North West        $782,457        $771,795        1.4%   
- North Shore - Coastal        $1,399,222        $1,376,695        1.6%   
- North Shore - North Harbour        $1,213,442        $1,190,626        1.9%   
- North Shore - Onewa        $972,081        $956,862        1.6%   
- Rodney - Hibiscus Coast        $934,930        $928,686        0.7%   
- Rodney - North        $979,832        $984,933        -0.5%   
Auckland City        $1,243,037        $1,228,005        1.2%   
Manukau City        $903,686        $900,766        0.3%   
Papakura District        $702,677        $677,340        3.7%   
Rodney District        $957,145        $955,814        0.1%   
Waitakere City        $826,625        $823,630        0.4%   

tianyalpangzi

Lease 发表于 2018-7-16 13:16
My view is similar, just hope the crisis is not so serious.

20% - 25%, 靠谱！

lianlian88

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-16 15:11
Some decline followed by a period of No growth (depending on how long the period) is quite signific ...

Agree, expectation has always been playing a significant factor, that is why the high uncertainty followed by a no growth period could see a significant pressure for investors with high leverage, especially when it comes to the point that the banks have to raise their interest rates due to highly risky macro-econimic enviroment (increasing captical cost) and more importanly as you said, pessimistic forcast.

所以啦，裸奔的就会难看了，2008年危机那会好多人其实可以熬过去的，就是扛不住那些利息

bungyjumping999

lianlian88 发表于 2018-7-16 13:41
Actually 20 to 25% is not that bad, considering what happened in US 2008.

Some decline followed by a period of No growth (depending on how long the period) is quite significant.

Between 2006- 2011, it was a hard time for some people (investors), people always talked about good time and forget about some difficult time.

Just to use one example, one person sold his house for about $1 million in 2015. Saw his ex-house listed in 2008 and he bought it back for $750K. there was fear factor dominating the market at that time ( people didn't  know what would happen)

Different suburbs will perform differently. I won't be surprised more rots will come out from some overrun suburbs.

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linghan 发表于 2018-7-16 14:46
最近去参加了几个拍卖，有几个都是中介自己在里面拍，拍完的价格现场会说成交了，但是几天后会比当天拍卖成 ...

地税刚涨，那几个中介快over了

bluekiwisky

如果你最近不卖房子，这个东西跟你没关系。
反正我是不准备卖，住的好好的。

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bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-16 13:03
NZ and Australia was well sheltered in the GFC (2008), the declining during that period was not tha ...

几位大神能不能含蓄点儿，俺的小心脏快跳出来了......

rzrljb

一周没啥意义的

lianlian88

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-16 13:03
NZ and Australia was well sheltered in the GFC (2008), the declining during that period was not tha ...

Actually 20 to 25% is not that bad, considering what happened in US 2008.

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-16 13:03
NZ and Australia was well sheltered in the GFC (2008), the declining during that period was not tha ...

My view is similar, just hope the crisis is not so serious.

bungyjumping999

Lease 发表于 2018-7-16 12:54
How much further fall do you estimate?

NZ and Australia was well sheltered in the GFC (2008), the declining during that period was not that much and for a short period of time and after that well supported by healthy immigration and friendly government policy and friendly lending policy.


My gut feeling is the reversing force will be big this round and could well be around 20-25% (follow by a period of stagnation (no growth) on some suburbs and some peripheral towns (2nd & 3rd tiers) once the government policy is met with Global unexpected events.

I foresee global event (crisis) will unfold itself and NZ will potentially be a casualty and will be hit hard this time as compared with the last crisis.

The crisis will make people and NZ wake up, but the damage would have been done.

bungyjumping999

houses are not identical goods, those who need to sale will face pressure.

Death
Divorce,
Debt (high)
Unemployment

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-16 12:47
this is just a preview.

More to come after Overseas investment amendment bill comes in and become l ...

How much further fall do you estimate?

lianlian88

Chatbox 发表于 2018-7-16 10:27
好猴急，这是一周的分析好不好。而且还是比较上周下降而已。一年有52周......这个的明白?

走两步就走两 ...

所以环比的数据其实干扰因素很大的，只有同比才有相对高的参考价值，所以楼主能晒一下本周比去年同期的数据吗。一年的区间比较才有意义。

lianlian88

请问可以晒一下同比的数据吗，比去年同期下降了多少捏

bungyjumping999

this is just a preview.

More to come after Overseas investment amendment bill comes in and become law.

Chatbox

songinator 发表于 2018-7-16 10:47
还有比这个的  这么小的sample size

确实，不过毕竟有些人的size是会小一些哈哈哈

songinator

Chatbox 发表于 2018-7-16 10:27
好猴急，这是一周的分析好不好。而且还是比较上周下降而已。一年有52周......这个的明白?

走两步就走两 ...

还有比这个的  这么小的sample size

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pchen 发表于 2018-7-15 20:34
OMG, 真的嗎?

这是真的，好可怕，吓得我瑟瑟发抖吔，看来以后租房送搓背是基本配置了。

Chatbox

先森表酱紫嘛 发表于 2018-7-15 18:13
那个预测涨5%的XX出来走两步

好猴急，这是一周的分析好不好。而且还是比较上周下降而已。一年有52周......这个的明白?

走两步就走两步，一二一 .......

carterdog

高价房跌不只10%，网上随便搜一下，开价低于cv 50万-80万的都有了，哈哈，之前说要捡漏的人全消失了。

hansen8424

完了完了,马上拍卖了，要不我撤了。。。

pchen

OMG, 真的嗎?

老老妖刀

天维投资 发表于 2018-7-15 19:21
我在之前有一篇每周的拍卖结果里写过为啥只有个人屋主/迷你/小型开发商才会通过拍卖来卖房~

其实这个市 ...

清盘率38%.
是不是就意味着62%的，浪费了拍卖费。

拍卖费一次得多钱啊