ZT: 艾玛，腰斩还没看到，就已经有人预测要翻番了，怎么办？

NewLynnHse

神马情况？？？

The chief executive of the Property Institute says Auckland's median house price could double by 2026-2027
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/93951/chief-executive-property-institute-says-aucklands-median-house-price-could-double

The Chief Executive of The Property Institute is predicting that Auckland median house prices could double by 2026 or 2027.

That would give a median price of around $1.7 million in Auckland, compared to the REINZ's April median of $850,000.

Property Institute Chief Executive Ashley Church based his prediction on mortgage data supplied by property analytics company Valocity, which suggested the residential property market peaked in 2016.

"Almost without exception, the number of mortgages uplifted by every buyer group [including investors, first home buyers and existing property owners refinancing], peaked in 2016 and has dropped away since then," Church said.

"That's the clearest indication yet of when we reached the top of the market.

"We know from experience that property values roughly double in Auckland every 10 to 12  years, and based on this rule of thumb, I'm of the view that the next cycle will start in 2021/2022 and by 2026 or 2027 the median house price in Auckland could be around twice what it is now," he said.

..........

vowoov

房价都脱离收入这么多了， 你当国内呢，投资只能买房所以房价一直涨

我真不是孙红雷

liu_yu_1980 发表于 2018-5-28 12:17
懶得動才是真話,比akl好賺錢的地方多得是

这么多人去死不见你去死？这么牛逼去朝鲜啊？把中国过去30年走的路再走一遍，必能发财，原理犹如穿越回去买彩票。这么多人去朝鲜不见你去？不过你这德性的到了朝鲜也当难民逮起来了吧

我真不是孙红雷

kathy87 发表于 2018-5-28 21:48
在基督城时，一个房东的房子是5000新币买的，1951年。另一个房东的房子是60 年代买的，房子2万新币， 后又 ...

我都不知道你这1951年的5000新币是怎么来的？合现在多少。你知道1951年新西兰用什么币吗？用的pre decimal的 Crown, half crown, shilling, 6 pence, 3 pence...。你这5000新币指5000大洋？现在一块1935年waitangi crown要8000纽币+（含银量925），一块1949年crown（含银量是50%），现在30纽币一块，差不多5000块合15万。或者你说可以用金币sovereign？一块full sovereign 按bullion value 500纽币左右。5000块合现在2百50万纽币。然后再看看当时工作一个月有几块大洋？10块20块？如果算20块，那要工作20年才能买的起一个5000的房子。所以什么时候买房子按当时的价格都是很困难的，别想偷懒了

Lease

talkaboutvision 发表于 2018-5-29 09:35
10年才到1.4？那年化也不高啊。。。

每年复合增长率为5%，确实不高， 所以我说我比较保守嘛。

但考虑到投资房产大部分人有杠杆（贷款）， 实际投资回报率要高很多。

auckland.clark

天维投资 发表于 2018-5-29 10:53
小猛男算不算头衔？

曾经（不知道多少年前）的屎盖版主算不算头衔？

哈哈.......
博大精深

auckland.clark

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-5-28 12:09
这个就是信仰啦。有人花一辈子的时间念经，赌的不就是死后能上天堂吗？哈哈 ...

那是一个职业。

天维投资

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-5-28 12:28
你把你的头衔亮出来先再说。。。哈哈

小猛男算不算头衔？

曾经（不知道多少年前）的屎盖版主算不算头衔？

以上内容都是我猜的，是我个人言论。如果猜对了，那就拉倒；猜错了的话，要不你来level9, 175 Queen St打我？

NewLynnHse

Lease 发表于 2018-5-29 09:18
是这个新闻吧： https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11857022

你同 ...

嗯，5%叫崩盘，50%叫腰斩

talkaboutvision

Lease 发表于 2018-5-28 11:29
怎么和我想得差不多， 哈哈。

不过我比他保守， 我估计从现在开始的10年之内，  Auckland median house pr ...

10年才到1.4？那年化也不高啊。。。

Lease

hfh555 发表于 2018-5-29 08:57
高盛目前认为的可是新西兰房市2年内崩盘可能性最大哦！
“根据这一模型，未来5到8个季度房市崩盘可能性最高 ...

是这个新闻吧： https://www.nzherald.co.nz/busin ... p;objectid=11857022

你同时应该看到高盛所谓的崩盘是房价下跌5%左右， 哈哈。

hfh555

高盛目前认为的可是新西兰房市2年内崩盘可能性最大哦！
“根据这一模型，未来5到8个季度房市崩盘可能性最高的地方是瑞典和新西兰。”高盛的报告指出，新西兰房市崩盘可能性为40%出头，瑞典的可能性是35%，澳大利亚为25%左右。
是什么因素一直支撑着新西兰房市这一“危墙”？高盛认为是移民增长和较低的房贷利率。
如果移民减少，银行提高利率，体量小的新西兰房产将会崩盘

bungyjumping999

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-5-29 08:47

median price house is still a good investment.

Just like in 2008, the median price was around $400K, it was a popular price to pay at that time and those houses are now 1 million - 1.2 million now.

Compare with a better house (more luxurious) in 2008 say $ 1million, it is still struggling to sell at 2 million.

NewLynnHse

狂奔的蜗牛!!! 发表于 2018-5-29 08:15
2026年翻翻，是现在的价格翻，还是跌到最低点的价格翻？

That would give a median price of around $1.7 million in Auckland, compared to the REINZ's April median of $850,000.

狂奔的蜗牛!!!

2026年翻翻，是现在的价格翻，还是跌到最低点的价格翻？

先森表酱紫嘛

kathy87 发表于 2018-5-28 21:48
在基督城时，一个房东的房子是5000新币买的，1951年。另一个房东的房子是60 年代买的，房子2万新币， 后又 ...

18XX年都是免费的，随便拿

kathy87

在基督城时，一个房东的房子是5000新币买的，1951年。另一个房东的房子是60 年代买的，房子2万新币， 后又从教堂买了地，也是两万新币。 现在这两栋房都是60万左右了。 奥克兰的房子2003年30多万的房子现在都100万了。 平均8% 每年增长，即使几年不长，最后还是会补回来。

trdeyoualbert

房版好热闹
一说升大家好激动呀

2012wu

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-5-28 12:09
这个就是信仰啦。有人花一辈子的时间念经，赌的不就是死后能上天堂吗？哈哈 ...

hahaha ...幽默

lianlian88

The long-term housing market price has always been determined by demand-supply, demand-supply, demand-supply (Important things should be repeated three times). Given that sense, there is actually not so manys bubbles in the Auckland Housing Market: it is just on the same track as any other cosmopolitan's housing markets which end up with housing price rocketing: Sydney, Hongkong, Vancouver, even Tokyo
But there is one little exception: USA, where there is property possession tax (more "fierce" than the capital gain tax), but that is USA, where they have many other major investment channels balancing through different major industries, which means they can afford such TAX. While, in NZ, as much as Labor would like to add another type of TAX, we just can't afford all the foreign investments being lifted as a result.

pategao

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-5-28 14:25
不应该再捞一笔才退休吗？

拉升的时候不就是被动的捞吗？

NewLynnHse

pategao 发表于 2018-5-28 14:17
看到拉升之前马上退休

不应该再捞一笔才退休吗？

pategao

看到拉升之前马上退休

Chatbox

liu_yu_1980 发表于 2018-5-28 13:01
各位akl的房東們,高潮之際看清楚原文的內容沒?

"That suggests there is also likely to be a continuing  ...

我干嘛要看他的? 那么悲观的文章不看。你能看出房东高潮，说明你在低潮哈哈哈。

Lease

liu_yu_1980 发表于 2018-5-28 13:01
各位akl的房東們,高潮之際看清楚原文的內容沒?

"That suggests there is also likely to be a continuing  ...

There will be correction, for sure. But after that, price will set new high and wealth will be transferred.

NewLynnHse

liu_yu_1980 发表于 2018-5-28 13:01
各位akl的房東們,高潮之際看清楚原文的內容沒?

"That suggests there is also likely to be a continuing  ...

正是31楼说的，会先痛，把裸泳的震出局。

bungyjumping999

liu_yu_1980 发表于 2018-5-28 13:01
各位akl的房東們,高潮之際看清楚原文的內容沒?

"That suggests there is also likely to be a continuing  ...

no one bothers to read his words, he is just another person who has interest in property investment.

Do you think he will say something more objective other than saying good things about things that he represents?

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-5-28 12:56
Before the next gain, there will be some pains.

It is just the way the cycle works.......  Some peo ...

That's always the case. If no losers, then no winners.

NewLynnHse

love_3_month 发表于 2018-5-28 12:47
好吧，到时候就可以退休了

唉，说到退休就心痛。10年前要是放胆去买，我现在就可以退休了，不用再等10年。。。哈哈