针对房产投资者的新政

kordia

Reserve Bank imposes Auckland-targeted investor rules – and drops heavy hint to the taxman
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Today's Reserve Bank financial stability report is a 62- page heavy-handed hint to Inland Revenue.
As signalled by NBR ONLINE earlier this week,  the Reserve Bank is targeting property investors in the Auckland region. Such investors will have to have a deposit of 30% of the value of the property.
That is aimed at all property investors in the Auckland Council area, with the exception of those investors building new houses.
In a partially compensating move, the existing "speed limit" for high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending outside Auckland will be adjusted from 10% to 15%, although the 10% will remain for loans to owner-occupied houses in Auckland with mortgages of greater than 80% of the value of the house.
The measures will take effect from October 1 but, in the meantime, banks are warned to keep within the spirit of the rules and not engage in a splurge of lending to beat the changes.
The new rules are effectively an extension of the loan-to-value ratio restrictions implemented nationally from October 2013. Those rules were effective for a time, the report released this morning says, but that effectiveness is now waning and in any case the big danger to the stability and wellbeing of the financial system is the Auckland property investor market.
The subtext of much of the analysis of the Auckland property market, contained in today's report, is plain: these investments are being made with the intention of selling for capital gain and therefore the capital gain should, under existing Income Tax Act rules, be included in property investors' income and taxed accordingly.
Many property investors already do this and Inland Revenue has been going after those who do not with increasing vigour since 2007.
Today's report stresses the risk the recent Auckland property frenzy puts the country's entire economic system under.
"Rising price-to-income ratios suggest new buyers in Auckland are becoming more indebted relative to their incomes than previous buyers.
"Another characteristic of the Auckland market has been increased investor purchases over the past year at the same time that rental yields have reached record lows." Surveys of house price inflation expectations show much higher expectations among Auckland property investors, the report says.
"Relatively strong capital gain expectations amongst Auckland investors may explain why they are willing to accept such low rental yields."
In other words, the properties are being bought for capital gain.
"Around half of investor commitments are at loan-to-value ratios of more than 70%. Preliminary Reserve Bank survey data suggests investors tend to make greater use of interest-only loans, which may partly reflect investors' ability to offset mortgage expenses against personal income for tax purposes."
The Reserve Bank is not a tax collector: its primary focus, in this context, is its responsibility for the stability of New Zealand's financial system.
That was made clear in today's report:  New Zealand avoided a property "bust" during the global financial crisis but those countries that did have such a collapse are a warning to what could happen here.
"International evidence suggests that high debt-to-income owner occupied and leveraged investors both have relatively high default rates during severe housing downturns. As a result, the potential for a sharp correction in Auckland house prices to cause a significant rise in bank loan loss has increased since the last report."
It has been a theme of Reserve Bank executives over recent weeks that all factors, not just housing supply, need to be addressed if the Auckland property maelstrom is not to destabilise the economy.
Deputy governor Grant Spencer last month caused something of a furore when he delivered a speech suggesting all factors driving the recent surge in house prices, including the intention to sell properties for capital gain, should be taken into account by the government.
Although Mr Spencer did not advocate a capital gains tax – despite many excitable politicians and commentators suggesting he did – the deputy governor did say the government needs to look at its treatment of capital gains.
Existing rules are based on an "intentions test" – whether a buyer intends to sell a property for capital gain at the time it is bought.
The undercurrent of the Reserve Bank's report today is that, if one looks at the overall data, it is difficult not to conclude many of the purchases being made are with the clear intentions of selling for capital gain.
The existing rules have been enforced with increased enthusiasm, as well as additional resources, since the middle of the previous decade. The last Labour government threw the IRD an extra $14.6 million to enforce the rules in 2007: in 2010 the current government doubled that funding.
Two weeks ago Finance Minister Bill English hinted there could be more funding coming in this year's budget – to be delivered next Thursday – for enforcing the existing rules.

winny

                  

yoyo124586

没用。现在有多少本地的投资者去投老房，市面上unit都要50w了，本地客都差不多在观望了，只有海外投资者，不了解行情，在agent的游说下不停的刷新市场记录。 总的来说，只要国家党不限制海外投资者，房价还要涨两年，一直到下次大选。 如果这次30%不行，明年40%，后年看看，等大选结果，反正对于海外投资者来说，总会有下一个海外投资者接盘，

maomao411

主要看银行9个月重新划分自助投资房之后的 房屋估价，以什么value作为基准，杠杠用的凶的又买的晚的，增幅达不到10%的就要自掏腰包

77only

追溯性是肯定的了吧，央行从10月1号起再给各家商业银行9个月的时间去搞之前已有的20%首付的贷款。至于是一刀切还是等refinance的时候搞就不知道了

wnin001

love_3_month 发表于 2015-5-13 15:41
评估肯定是市场价啊，所以要有资质的评估师的银行才接受，不是谁的评估都可以的。

所以从银行的角度来说 ...

房价年年涨是一定的， 广大投资者因为capital gain而免受影响也是基本可以肯定的。 但是需要头脑清醒， 看到市面上房价一片大好，不见得银行会给你估出你期望的价值。
对于一些用杠杆太狠的投资者，走在30%的边缘，很有可能会因为银行的估价低于自己的期望，这次真的被冲击到。

love_3_month

wnin001 发表于 2015-5-13 15:28
我觉得你说得对，银行对资产的评估不应该是market value，尤其是如果泡沫已经存在。 但是用原始买价不行 ...

评估肯定是市场价啊，所以要有资质的评估师的银行才接受，不是谁的评估都可以的。

所以从银行的角度来说，只要下跌不超过20%（或者30%，按照新政策），他们的贷款很安全。

要不然，换银行，新的银行怎么办呢，难道自己一家家的出去评估吗，哪里来的人力物力，还不是靠外面的专业人士或者软件。。。

后文车妖

wnin001 发表于 2015-5-13 15:28
我觉得你说得对，银行对资产的评估不应该是market value，尤其是如果泡沫已经存在。 但是用原始买价不行 ...

5月底主要是具体措施。也就两个主要看点。第一，甄别投资者类型的商业银行方案，无非两点，是否是自主，是否租金用于还贷方案里。第二，具体在10月1号过后九个月的过度期内甄别所有商业银行现有房贷的类型，就算你是20年前的贷款，也要从新分类。

wnin001

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 11:53
A very good reading of the report released this morning will help us to gain a better understanding  ...

我觉得你说得对，银行对资产的评估不应该是market value，尤其是如果泡沫已经存在。 但是用原始买价不行。 房地产是一定会升值的。 单从银行自己的financial reporting来说，他们也不会希望资产under-valued. 对于广大投资者则会伤筋动骨。 这样看来，也许QV的数字可能比较有用。
貌似这个事情会引起争端。 看5月底还有什么信息出来。

Lease

JSPMachine 发表于 2015-5-13 13:32
Retain the existing 10 percent speed limit for loans to owner-occupiers in Auckland at LVRs of ...

意思是针对奥克兰自住房买家，如果这些买家的贷款高于80%的话，一家商业银行对这类人的贷款不得超过银行贷款总额的10%。

JSPMachine

Lease 发表于 2015-5-13 11:02
Reserve Bank announces new LVR restrictions on Auckland housingDate        13 May 2015New Zealand’ ...

    Retain the existing 10 percent speed limit for loans to owner-occupiers in Auckland at LVRs of greater than 80 percent.

怎么解读？

angelvan2012

JSPMachine 发表于 2015-5-13 13:24
不会出追溯吧，这追溯，大半的人20%，会对市场造成毁灭性打击。 应该是 换银行的时候，慢慢消化掉，软着陆 ...

应该是给了9个月缓冲。

JSPMachine

不会出追溯吧，这追溯，大半的人20%，会对市场造成毁灭性打击。 应该是 换银行的时候，慢慢消化掉，软着陆。  

银行不会那么傻，绝对不会让自己的客户破产拍卖。

youngswheel

呼啸寒风 发表于 2015-5-13 10:56
纽币大涨，利好阿！！！！！！！！！！！！

为啥对纽币是利好啊?

wnin001

认真看了一下44楼。 体会如下。

1.        新政策的目的是控制各家银行的lending risk。最终目的是防止信贷崩溃，简称房价腰斩。 进一步理解，中央银行认为奥克兰房市已经，或者正在，形成泡沫，现在出来干预一下。
2.        New asset class的意思是说各家银行要重新核算资产，也就是说他们手上的投资房价值多少。 对于新放出来的贷款，asset要占70%， 对于目前已经存在并将要refinance的贷款，要核算asset占70%。 换句话说，如果你要向银行借钱投资房子，那么一开始的时候银行拥有产权不低于70%。 当然后期欢迎你逐月还钱， 这样银行的asset才得以保障。 进一步理解，如果突发国际金融危机， nz银行和金融系统才有能力抵抗。
3.        央行对各家银行的控制政策落实到奥克兰房产投资者， 简单地说就是要你多放钱。 杠杆要合理。
4.        报告中提到的关于奶制品出口的萧条，让我很自然得出一个结论，nz dairy 出口滞后，因而政府开始期望从房地产上吸引外资。如果到了一定时候海外投资者过多，政府才会出来干预，比如4月份澳洲的行动。  

写完了。 欢迎补充。

后文车妖

A very good reading of the report released this morning will help us to gain a better understanding of what aims that RBNZ would like to achieve.

The overall goal is to reduce the negative impact in the case of dramatic housing price fall. And this aim can be achieved through the following:
1. Reducing the risk factor on banking system side by reducing high load-to-price ratio borrower.
2. Reducing the high volume of risk debet-to-income investor by introducing more strict rules in housing load. This, in other words, is to enforce current investor to more focusing on the income itself, rather than the capital gain. So you definitely will see some mortgage sells, but do not expect a huge dropping of AKL housing price.

政策的核心就是，第一减少房屋贷款的总量，和对银行，和对投资者本身的资产比率，第二，转变投资者的基本投资风向，着重于现金流进账，而非是短期投机，第三，抑制房价过快上涨（看好了不是腰斩房价，这恰恰是央行要避免的）。各位所说的银行会做现价计算，那个是基于一个等式的计算出来的，参量都是随大市变化的。5月底央行出具体实施细节，你怎么如此肯定那个简单的公式还给你算升值？记住这个价格不是市场价格。你市场价格预期再高和这个银行计算出来的是两回事。

love_3_month

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 11:16
Marker Value is for buyer, not bank. Bank is not a buyer.

Bank cares about their current balance ...

。。。。。。。。。。你试一下就知道了，纸上谈兵害死人啊。。。。。

Lease

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 11:16
Marker Value is for buyer, not bank. Bank is not a buyer.

Bank cares about their current balance ...

I think Banks also care Market Value. It means if borrower default, banks can recover full loans if market value is higher(than loan amount). But not if MV is lower.

Banks have all sorts of means knowing market value of each property, ie, QV.

roy7326

这句话有可能关系贷款利率吗？
“Following a lengthy consultation process, we have decided that a residential property investor loan will be defined as any retail mortgage secured on a residential property that is not owner-occupied.”

kaiser2006

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 11:16
Marker Value is for buyer, not bank. Bank is not a buyer.

Bank cares about their current balance ...

银行当然知道。每次借钱时银行都会重新估算一下的。

Scofield

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 11:16
Marker Value is for buyer, not bank. Bank is not a buyer.

Bank cares about their current balance ...

做EVALUATION喽

后文车妖

Lease 发表于 2015-5-13 11:12
There is one phrase called "Market Value", regardless sold or unsold.

Marker Value is for buyer, not bank. Bank is not a buyer.

Bank cares about their current balance sheets. How would bank know the Market value of house?

Lease

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 11:08
说实话，我没大搞清各位的逻辑。不把房子卖出去，这增值什么的从哪里来的？ ...

There is one phrase called "Market Value", regardless sold or unsold.

后文车妖

Lease 发表于 2015-5-13 11:00
依据在哪里呢？

说实话，我没大搞清各位的逻辑。不把房子卖出去，这增值什么的从哪里来的？

love_3_month

已经有房子的，refinance的时候，我的感觉是，如果在目前的银行，维持目前的贷款，就没问题
如果换银行，就要考虑70%的问题。但目前的涨势，市场估价，1年涨10%以上，所以买了一年后的70%和当初买的的80%也没有很大区别。

另外，如果是top up 的话，自住的可以到80%，投资的只能70%，按照申请贷款当时的估价。这个很有意思，换句话说，如果早晚想多买房投资的话，即使暂时没有看中房子，也尽量在10/1之前去top up，因为可以多10%，用于下个房子的首付。

微苦蓝山

kaiser2006 发表于 2015-5-13 10:58
房产投资协会的Andrew King已经代表广大投资者发言了，新政只是让租客更加痛苦。羊毛出在羊身上。 ...

老实说，他痛苦的话，说明这个政策有效果

wnin001

重新估算房价的时候，是贷款银行的估价为标准吗？这个貌似会引起争端的。
也许贷款合同里有写，房屋价格由银行决定吧。这个我都没认真看过…
哪个broker大神来说说？

Lease

微苦蓝山 发表于 2015-5-13 10:57
请问这个media release 中具体哪段体现了这个信息》

Reserve Bank announces new LVR restrictions on Auckland housing

Date        13 May 2015

New Zealand’s financial system is sound and operating effectively, but faces significant risks, Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, said today when releasing the Bank’s May Financial Stability Report.

Mr Wheeler identified three systemic risks facing the New Zealand financial system.

“Auckland’s median house price is 60 percent above its 2008 level, and house prices in Auckland have been rising rapidly since late last year. This reflects ongoing supply constraints and increased demand, driven by record net immigration, low interest rates and increasing investor activity. Prices in the Auckland region have become very stretched, increasing the risk of financial instability from a sharp correction in prices.

“A second area of risk for the financial system relates to the dairy sector, which is experiencing a sharp fall in incomes due to lower international prices. Many highly leveraged farms are facing negative cash-flows, and the risks will become more pronounced if low milk prices persist beyond the current season.

“The third key risk arises from the current very easy global financial conditions. Low interest rates are encouraging investors into riskier assets in the search for yield. Prices of both financial and real assets are becoming overextended in many markets. There is an increasing risk that the current benign conditions unwind in a disorderly fashion, disrupting the cost and availability of funding for the New Zealand financial system.”

LVR Restrictions

In response to the growing housing market risk in Auckland, the Reserve Bank is today announcing proposed changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) policy. The policy changes, proposed to take effect from 1 October, will:

• Require residential property investors in the Auckland Council area using bank loans to have a deposit of at least 30 percent.
  

• Increase the existing speed limit for high LVR borrowing outside of Auckland from 10 to 15 percent, to reflect the more subdued housing market conditions outside of Auckland.
  

• Retain the existing 10 percent speed limit for loans to owner-occupiers in Auckland at LVRs of greater than 80 percent.
  

“We are proposing these adjustments to the LVR policy to more directly target investor activity in the Auckland region, where house prices relative to incomes and rent are far more elevated than elsewhere in New Zealand.

“The objective of this policy is to promote financial stability by reducing the rate of increase in Auckland house prices, and to improve the resilience of the banking system to a potential downturn in the Auckland housing market.”

Mr Wheeler emphasised that while the new measures aim to moderate housing demand, policies to ease housing supply constraints in Auckland remain the key to addressing the region’s housing imbalances over the longer term.

Deputy Governor, Grant Spencer, said that the Bank will issue a consultation paper in late May, providing further details and seeking feedback on the new LVR proposals.

“Prior to the proposed introduction of the policy in October, we expect banks to observe the spirit of the restrictions and not seek to expand high-LVR investor lending in Auckland.

“Given the importance of encouraging residential construction activity in Auckland, and consistent with the existing LVR policy, the proposed LVR restrictions will not apply to loans to construct new houses or apartments.

“Consistent with the LVR measures, the Reserve Bank is establishing a new asset class for bank loans to residential property investors. Banks will be expected to hold more capital against this asset class to reflect the higher risks inherent in such lending.

“Following a lengthy consultation process, we have decided that a residential property investor loan will be defined as any retail mortgage secured on a residential property that is not owner-occupied.”

A summary of submissions received in response to the consultation will be released later this month, and details will be provided on the implementation of the new asset class, including on the proposed capital treatment of residential investor loans.

The new asset class will take effect from 1 October 2015 for new lending, with a further phase-in period of nine months for the reclassification of existing loans.

“Given the broader risks facing the financial system, it is crucial that banks maintain their capital and liquidity buffers and apply prudent lending standards. Later this year the Reserve Bank will be reviewing bank capital requirements in light of global and domestic developments affecting the safety of the banking system,” Mr Spencer said.

More information: Financial Stability Report

Media Contact:
Mike Hannah, Head of Communications,
Ph 04 471 3671, 021 497 418, mike.hannah@rbnz.govt.nz

Lease

后文车妖 发表于 2015-5-13 10:53
是按买房时候的价格和贷款算的。

依据在哪里呢？

kaiser2006

房产投资协会的Andrew King已经代表广大投资者发言了，新政只是让租客更加痛苦。羊毛出在羊身上。