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Walt Glazer: Time to prick the housing bubble
5:00 AM Thursday Feb 12, 2015
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Over the past 40 years Auckland has become a world-class city. But what will happen in the future? No one knows, today, but as an American urban historian who has watched the city's rise since 1975, and has spent the past two months here, I see signs that you are all living in a bubble.
In 1976, after a year as Visiting Fulbright Professor at the University of Auckland, the Listener asked me to write my impressions of the city.
At that time many residents had an inferiority complex about their city and town planners were critical of "suburban sprawl". I emphasised its natural advantages, multi-cultural population and relaxed outdoor lifestyle.
I predicted "by the year 2000 Auckland will be one of the world's most prosperous and popular new breed of cities - 'suburban centres in the sun' - with more than a million people spread from Wellsford to Hamilton [enjoying] plenty of sunshine, fresh air and clean water."
I was right. Today Auckland is ranked within the top cities of the world, based on a thriving economy and high levels of satisfaction attracting millions of immigrants and tourists.
But what about the future? Everyone agrees there is a housing shortage and prices are unaffordable for many new buyers. Experts say values are inflated and the market overheated. Some are now predicting a downturn of 5 to 20 per cent.
After two months living in Auckland, talking to people everywhere and following the local media, I have an overwhelming impression that you are living in a "bubble" of inflated housing prices and affluent lifestyles.
This bubble is based largely on credit and confidence that the good times will continue.
It supports a new affluent lifestyle: fancy homes, flash cars, fine dining and having fun.
Nearly everyone is involved, directly or indirectly, as consumers, investors and workers. If you can't afford to buy a home, spend your money today on food, drink, toys and travel.
But bubbles always burst: the smart money exits, others lose their home equity (or worse) and everyone suffers from the economic consequences. Properties are abandoned, houses become run down, rates go unpaid followed by unemployment and crime. It has happened in American cities; it could happen here in Auckland.
When I arrived here in 1975 I read a book about New Zealand by Austin Mitchell, The Half Gallon Quarter-Acre Pavlova Paradise, a satirical description of the prevailing egalitarian, suburban Kiwi lifestyle based on widespread home ownership. Houses were affordable and government helped new buyers.
Today things are very different. Housing has become a financial investment and personal statement of social status and lifestyle. Everyone talks about real estate: the media pump it with news about record prices and advertising with alluring stories and pictures.
But, in many respects, housing is special: the basis of a middle-class society. It is a major sector of the economy providing jobs and represents the main asset of most families. Neighbours living together form communities and support local institutions.
Now, however, housing has become the primary focus of capital investment. Owners don't buy houses just to live in but to appreciate in value. And banks now invest most of their money in mortgages rather than more productive small businesses loans. They all hope for (and require) the bubble to keep growing.
Some people say this is just the free market acting naturally and that it will adjust itself in the future. But others doubt this and worry about the human consequences. History is full of stories about bubbles that ended unhappily.
The other (positive) bubble Auckland lives in is your unique natural advantages: the temperate climate, clear air and water, beaches and bush nearby that support a suburban lifestyle. This is your special appeal today and will be your main attraction tomorrow.
Auckland faces a choice about its future: the Unitary Plan. Should the city concentrate development of its core, with high density housing and public transportation, or allow expansion on the periphery, with better roads and services? Should Auckland plan to become the Hong Kong of the South Pacific (a high-density, polluted, unaffordable money-centre) or remain a Kiwi oasis of security for the future?
If you agree Auckland's property values and affluent lifestyle are inflated, housing is important and your natural attractions and suburban lifestyle are unique, then focus on deflating your property values/lifestyle and making Auckland a more affordable, liveable, cosmopolitan "suburban centre in the sun" for everyone.
- Walt Glazer is a retired American urban historian, who lived in Auckland from 1975-85, has visited often since but now lives in cold, snowy Cleveland, Ohio
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发表于 2015-2-21 05:15:11
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good useful information