05.07.2021 对于目前房市的一些数据统计和个人见解，欢迎讨论

desperado1012

懒得翻译了哈哈，感兴趣的朋友可以google 翻译。有说的不清楚的地方，可以PM我


1. It is commonly believed that interest increases will affect the purchaser's affordability. In contrast, ASB shows that the house gearing ratio is only 20% (Low) so an increase in repayment should not affect the household too much.

2. Yet, as expected the border might open next year, which will drive the demand back up, hence boost the house price.

3. How interest rate increase and immigration increase will prevail each other is uncertain at this stage.

4. Preference of property type: 48% - Standalone house, 40% - Terrace house (townhouse), 13% - Apartment

5. Preference of size: 6% - single bedroom/studio, 69% - 2-3 bedroom, 25% - four or more bedroom

6. Lending rate in housing has grown to 11.4% (no surprise). Where rest of the main sectors are showing a bounce back, after a two-year-long decline. In which, personal consumer showing strong increment from -12.5% to now -3.1%

7. Households are turning term deposits and into either transaction or short-term savings. A signal of people is starting spending money or ready to spend money, a sign of economic bounce-back

8. Major banks are now accepting 20% deposits for small apartments (38m2 or larger). A sign aligned with the govt policy towards a new apartment zone in metropolitan areas. This will consequently drive a high sales rate on apartments, e.g. 89% from Ray White auction room.

10. Many development listings now prefer negotiation, rather than auction. The reason is by negotiation can get to the buyer and sell the property quicker

是个狼灭

我想问问，只有我喜欢联排吗，感觉又能像公寓一样阳光好又暖和，每层楼还分工明确互不打扰，虽然我没买过联排

desperado1012

是个狼灭 发表于 2021-7-5 11:46
我想问问，只有我喜欢联排吗，感觉又能像公寓一样阳光好又暖和，每层楼还分工明确互不打扰，虽然我没买过联 ...

第4点：根据调查，目前40%的买房者也接受联排。所以你不是一个人哈哈

房奴甲

是个狼灭 发表于 2021-7-5 11:46
我想问问，只有我喜欢联排吗，感觉又能像公寓一样阳光好又暖和，每层楼还分工明确互不打扰，虽然我没买过联 ...

我早就买过确实很舒服保暖，隐私也很好。问题是以后这个东西太多了，价钱上不去。

太极宗师001

你们没想过，如果联排遇到一个讨厌的邻居怎么办？？？经常还租客的邻居怎么办？？？吵吵闹闹的咋办？？？

zwanything

请问楼主这些都是官方数据？最后一条貌似跟前面冲突，或者说为了解释negotiation增多不代表房价的下行趋势？

alike0932

房奴甲 发表于 2021-7-5 12:04
我早就买过确实很舒服保暖，隐私也很好。问题是以后这个东西太多了，价钱上不去。 ...

新建的联排看着还是可以的，但是内部质量堪忧，而且现在的联排基本上都没有body corp，十年后当房屋开始需要维修的时候扯皮的事就开始了，试想联排unit 1屋顶漏水破坏了unit2的木结构，到时这两家该怎么分配责任，维修费谁来出，谁来主导维修过程，一大堆麻烦事，感觉联排的坑不比palster漏水房小。政府应该要求新建的联排3个unit以上的必须要有bodycorp，这样也减轻了未来扯皮打官司的风险

rzrljb

The latest building consent figures suggest the residential construction industry is showing no sign of slowing down, with 43,466 new dwellings consented in the 12 months to the end of May, according to Statistics NZ.
Supply is record high enough for 120k people to live every year, immigration estimate to be 30k per year after reopen border, which is 1/3 of 2019,  interest rate will increase

huliyehutu

alike0932 发表于 2021-7-5 13:12
新建的联排看着还是可以的，但是内部质量堪忧，而且现在的联排基本上都没有body corp，十年后当房屋开始 ...

我打算以后把独立的房子租出去，然后租联排住邻居不满意换一个租。。

alike0932

huliyehutu 发表于 2021-7-5 14:29
我打算以后把独立的房子租出去，然后租联排住邻居不满意换一个租。。

这样的话我觉得不如买好一点的公寓，毕竟现在位置不错的联排也要80w+了，联排空间大了一点点但是楼上楼下的跑其实挺烦的，100w的公寓就会有很多不错的选择了

huliyehutu

alike0932 发表于 2021-7-5 14:38
这样的话我觉得不如买好一点的公寓，毕竟现在位置不错的联排也要80w+了，联排空间大了一点点但是楼上楼下 ...

公寓也是不错，主要还要有小孩上学的问题，联排 公寓学区一般都是不错的地方。

desperado1012

zwanything 发表于 2021-7-5 12:56
请问楼主这些都是官方数据？最后一条貌似跟前面冲突，或者说为了解释negotiation增多不代表房价的下行趋势 ...

这些数据是public的数据，来自不同的来源。一些观点是我个人的粗略见解，并不完善，纯粹是抛砖引玉的作用哈