The average price of a house in Auckland could rise to almost $3 million by 2040

LYYX

The average price of a house in Auckland could rise to almost $3 million by 2040.
就是炸锅卖铁，现在也要把第一套房买到手－－局势是越来越难。。。
文章按1999－2019增长模型推算：https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/3 ... utm_content=generic

鼠星人

继续做梦吧

shirly.

你发这个 会被这个论坛里的一个精神病患者骂死的

ptwzjs

先考虑下2040年你多大了。。。

okuku360

如果真涨到300万，那时候物价也肯定不是现在的水平了，看看中国过去30年的物价和房价就知道了

huliyehutu

20年涨200% 那2030年之前我的房贷就不值一提了？ 感动的想哭

LYYX

shirly. 发表于 2019-12-12 15:07
你发这个 会被这个论坛里的一个精神病患者骂死的

哈哈哈。。。。。。。
见证了1999－2019过的。。。
啥都不要奇怪了。。。

pategao

反正我是不信

rzrljb

我觉得是可能的

剑客浪心

这个假设是社会安全，没有自然灾害，人口增长，通货膨胀长期为正，仍然资本主义的情况下才能发生。最好加个条件。

鼠星人

剑客浪心 发表于 2019-12-12 16:08
这个假设是社会安全，没有自然灾害，人口增长，通货膨胀长期为正，仍然资本主义的情况下才能发生。最好加个 ...

其实，世界大战要是爆发的话，比如美国打中国，新西兰可能还是最安全的。。。哈哈！！！

Lease

2040年， 太遥远了， 想不到这么久远的事情。

楼主就说一下未来5年的房价如何吧。

lm135

嗯，据说2040年姚明就能长到20米以上。

bluekiwisky

98年的时候，花30万买个房子，被旁边一群人说贵。现在那个房子价值快200万了。

bungyjumping999

When Olly Newland was saying Auckland houses would hit $1million by average in 2010, everyone laughed and some fell off from the chair.

Now is the norm. So, who knows.

angelvan2012

20年涨200%，年化5.6%。如果按20%首付，5%平均利率算的话，相当于本金由1涨到7，年化10.2%。

小莹子

很久远的事了，谁知道呢……

anyway_ben

灰常可能。然鹅到时候面包$10 一个

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2019-12-12 23:14
When Olly Newland was saying Auckland houses would hit $1million by average in 2010, everyone laughe ...

I do not wish property price come to $3m in 20 years time.

If it reached that price, then the gap between rich and poor would be so huge that a revolution should come.

I'll be happy if compound growth rate is at 3% for the next 20 years.

shaodaozi

Lease 发表于 2019-12-13 12:34
I do not wish property price come to $3m in 20 years time.

If it reached that price, then the gap ...

3%可能会有点低哦，有点太保守了吧lease大神

Lease

shaodaozi 发表于 2019-12-13 13:42
3%可能会有点低哦，有点太保守了吧lease大神

3%的话， 20年之后也要接近$2M了， 绝对价值不低了。

我的Point is: 不想贫富差距拉的太大， 到时候引发穷人闹革命。

love_3_month

太难说了。
历史只能参考，毕竟时代大大的不同的。
或者来个第五次工业革命，大颠覆

或者继续做个偏僻的小国。。。

bungyjumping999

Lease 发表于 2019-12-13 12:34
I do not wish property price come to $3m in 20 years time.

If it reached that price, then the gap ...

You are right.

just that I am wondering when the property was $200K (median price) in Auckland, Were people thinking the same thing about the Wealth gap and grass-root revolution if it reached $500K, $800K, $1million?
We all want stabilities but things are moving fast in this era. Grass-root revolution will not be successful, they will be diffused by cheaper houses/apartments on the outskirt. They will move on to those houses and accept the reality of city evolution.

Houses with big sections within 5 KM radius will be rare. They are the potential to reach $2-3 million and only for the elites.
Happened in any Tier 1 cities before, it will happen here with the passes of time.

$1 million in the year 2000 can buy really good houses in Auckland, now can only buy a simple house in Glenfield. How cynical is that?

Chinese take-away was $8-9 (yr 2000) and now $12.50

x-ray

上一波（09-15年）有投资的人， 2030 均价能够到2M左右，应该卖俩房子，还清贷款就可以退休了，2040有点遥远。

剑客浪心

Lease 发表于 2019-12-13 12:34
I do not wish property price come to $3m in 20 years time.

If it reached that price, then the gap ...

这次到了1M的时候，政治上已经算是一个警告了。

longwang

不可能。房产投资要是这么简单，就不可能有日本的30年的不增长了。

Lease

longwang 发表于 2019-12-14 00:45
不可能。房产投资要是这么简单，就不可能有日本的30年的不增长了。

"不可能".

不要说的这么绝对。尽管我也不希望房价在20年后涨到$3M.

bungyjumping999

In 10- 20 years time, what is the standard of Measurement?

Is it still money, USD?

Will there be a currency crisis? Is the current currency totally misplaced?
What you are holding "Cash" is just a concept that will be replaced in the debt crisis?

What will people talk about Cash in 10-20 years' time?

Venox10111

longwang 发表于 2019-12-14 00:45
不可能。房产投资要是这么简单，就不可能有日本的30年的不增长了。

击鼓传花，传到一定程度发现。。。没人接了。。。