不管是赞还是骂都该先读读蔡英文的第一声（中英文）

越墮落。越快樂

谢谢各位国内外的媒体记者朋友，感谢大家的耐心等候。
    今天，台湾人用选票写下了历史，完成了总统直选以来第三次的政党轮替，以及第一次的「国会政党轮替」。我要向所有在今天走进投票所、投下神圣一票的台湾人民，致上最深的敬意。无论投票给谁，民主精神的展现，就是这场选举最大的意义。

    在2016年，我们又一次地透过民主选举，向全世界展现做为一个民主国家的骄傲，以及身为台湾人的光荣。我们也再一次告诉了国际社会：民主的价值，已经深入台湾人的血液；民主的生活方式，更将是2300万人永远的坚持。

    在这里，我要感谢两位可敬的对手，国民党的朱主席和亲民党的宋主席。我感谢他们，展现了民主的风度，让这次的大选能够顺利、圆满。而过去这段时间的相互竞争，以及他们对我很多的指教，都将会是我鞭策自己不断进步的动力。

    我相信，政党之间除了竞争，当然也可以合作。在新国会就职，到新政府上任之间的过渡期间，民进党会依循宪政体制和现在的政府保持密切的沟通、协调，协助政府维持交接过程中的政局稳定、和正常运作。

    我也会尽快和国内主要的政党，共同来共商国是的机制，我们也希望藉由这个国是的共商机制，能够经常就重大政策交换意见，让台湾摆脱政治恶斗的旧思维，迎接「新政治」的来临。

    此外，我要感谢投票支持蔡英文、陈建仁、民主进步党和我们立委候选人的所有选民，让民进党重新站起来，并且再一次把治理国家的责任交给我们。

    对我来说，这不只是一场选举的胜利。这个结果，是在告诉我，人民期待一个更愿意倾听民意的政府，一个决策更透明的政府，一个有能力解决困难、照顾弱势的政府，一个可以把国家带到新时代的政府，还有，一个会坚定捍卫国家主权的政府。

    我说过，从今天起，就是改革的第一里路。这些托付，将会是我推动改革的最大后盾。我承诺，2月1号就职的新“国会”以及5月20号上任的新政府，都会把实现这些期待，当作最重要的使命。

    我们必须诚实面对，改革不可能一步到位，台湾眼前的挑战也不会立即消失。但是在未来4年的任期，我一定会尽全力兑现我的承诺，为台湾晋升先进国家，展开各项必要的软硬体建设，修复过去的政策错误，重建人民对政府的信赖，为下个阶段的台湾发展，奠定最坚实的基础。

    藉由这个机会，我也要代表台湾人民，感谢国际友人，对于台湾民主选举的关注和支持。做为国际社会的一份子，台湾愿意积极参与国际合作，台湾也愿意与全世界的盟友共享利益、共担责任，并且为区域的和平稳定，做出最大的贡献。

    在这场选战中，我曾经多次承诺，将会建立具有一致性、可预测性、可持续的两岸关系。做为中华民国第14任总统当选人，我要在此重申，今年5月20日新政府执政之后，将以中华民国现行宪政体制、两岸协商交流互动的成果、以及民主原则与普遍民意，做为推动两岸关系的基础。我也会秉持超越党派的立场，遵循台湾最新的民意和最大的共识，致力确保海峡两岸关系维持和平稳定的现状，以创造台湾人民的最大利益和福祉。

    我也要强调，两岸都有责任尽最大努力，寻求一个对等尊严、彼此都能够接受的互动之道，确保没有挑衅，也没有意外。今天选举的结果，是台湾民意的展现，中华民国做为一个民主国家，是2300万台湾人民的共同坚持，我们的民主制度、国家认同与国际空间，必须被充分尊重，任何的打压，都会破坏两岸关系的稳定。

    最后我要强调，我知道自己有一个很重大的责任，就是去团结这个国家。

    这两天，有一个新闻撼动了台湾社会。有一位在韩国发展的台湾艺人，一个16岁的女生，因为拿着中华民国国旗的画面，而遭到打压。这件事，引起了不分党派的台湾人民普遍的不满。这件事将会永远提醒我，团结这个国家、壮大这个国家，并且一致对外，是我做为下一任中华民国总统，最重要的责任。

    台湾还会有很多的挑战，来自外部、也来自内部。选举已经结束，所有选举过程中的摩擦和争执，也应该到此为止。我会和2300万人一起向前走，共同打败这个国家的困境，我们不会因为选举而分裂，而是因为民主而团结。

谢谢大家。































      Friends from the domestic and international media. Thank you for your patience.
      Today the Taiwanese people have used their ballots to make history. We have now experienced the third transition of political power. For the first time there has also been a transition of Taiwan’s legislative majority. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to all the people that went to the ballot box today and casted their sacred vote. Regardless of how you voted the exercise of democratic expression was the most important meaning of this election.

       In 2016 through our democratic elections we have yet again showed the world the pride of being a democratic country and how proud we are as Taiwanese. Our message to the international community is that democracy as a value is deeply engrained in the Taiwanese people. Our democratic way of life is forever the resolve of Taiwan’s 23 million people.
      I would also like to thank my two admirable opponents: Chairman Eric Chu from the KMT and Chairman James Soong from the PFP. I want to thank them for showcasing the spirit of our democracy and letting this election run smoothly. Although we have battled each other during this election their critique and suggestions will now serve as motivation for me to work harder and be better.
      I believe that further to competition with each other political parties can work together. In the interim between the new legislature and the presidential inauguration the DPP will maintain closer communication and consultations with the current government in accordance with the constitutional framework. We will support the government in maintaining political stability and normalcy in the transition period.
      We also look forward to working with the main political parties to establish a framework for discussing major policies. We will put political polarization behind us and look forward to the arrival of an era of ‘New Politics’ in Taiwan.
      We would like to also thank all the voters that voted for Tsai Ing-wen Chen Chien-jen the DPP and our legislative candidates. Thank you for helping the DPP stand up again and for again entrusting us to govern this country.
      For me this is not just about an election victory. The results today tell me that the people want to see a government more willing to listen to the people a government that is more transparent and accountable and a government that is more capable of leading us past our current challenges and taking care of those in need. They tell me that the people expect a government that can lead this country into a new generation and a government that is steadfast in protecting this country’s sovereignty.
      Today represents the first kilometer in our road to reform. The responsibility that has been entrusted to us is the strongest measure of support for my future reforms. I promise: the new legislature that will take office on February 1 and the new government that will take office on May 20 will turn these expectations into reality as a matter of the highest priority.
      We have to also be candid in saying that reform will not happen in one day. And the challenges that Taiwan faces will not immediately disappear. But in the four years ahead I will do everything I can to realize my promises: to turn Taiwan into a more advanced country engage in the necessary development of our infrastructure and fix the policy failures of the past. I will rebuild the people’s trust in government and create a stable foundation for Taiwan’s future development.
      On behalf of the Taiwanese people I would also like to use this opportunity to thank our international friends including the U.S. Japan and other countries for their support towards Taiwan’s democratic election. As part of international society Taiwan is willing to participate in international cooperation efforts sharing the same benefits and shouldering the same responsibilities as our partners from around the world. We will also greatly contribute towards peace and stability in the region.
      During this election I had promised on many occasions that I will build a consistent predictable and sustainable cross-strait relationship. As the 14th president-elect of the Republic of China I reaffirm that after my new administration takes office on May 20 the Republic of China constitutional order the results of cross-strait negotiations interactions and exchanges and democratic principles and the will of the Taiwanese people will become the foundation for future cross-strait relations. My position will move past partisan politics. Following the will and consensus of the Taiwanese people we will work to maintain the status quo for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait in order to bring the greatest benefits and well-being to the Taiwanese people.
      I also want to emphasize that both sides of the strait have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction that are based on dignity and reciprocity. We must ensure that no provocations or accidents take place. The results of today’s election showcases the will of the Taiwanese people. It is the shared resolve of Taiwan’s 23 million people that the Republic of China is a democratic country. Our democratic system national identity and international space must be respected. Any forms of suppression will harm the stability of cross-strait relations.
      Finally I want to emphasize that I have an important responsibility and that is to strengthen the unity of this country.
      Over the past few days we have seen news that has shaken Taiwanese society. An entertainer – a young 16 year old girl – working in South Korea – recently attracted opposition after she was filmed holding the Republic of China flag. This incident has angered many Taiwanese people regardless of their political affiliation.
      This particular incident will serve as a constant reminder to me about the importance of our country’s strength and unity to those outside our borders. This will be one of the most important responsibilities for me as the next president of the Republic of China.
      Taiwan has many challenges ahead both from outside and inside the country. This election is now over and that brings to an end the conflicts and friction of the election campaign. I will march forward together with the 23 million people of Taiwan. Together we will overcome the challenges that this country faces. We will not be divided by an election. Instead we will become even more united because of our democracy.
     Thank you everybody.


蔡英文：生于1956 年 8 月 31 日台湾台北市中山区，籍贯台湾屏东县枋山乡人。毕业于台大法律系，美国康奈尔大学法学硕士，英国伦敦政治经济学院博士。被评价其发言能够始终保持冷静，逻辑性强且十分尖锐。上世纪90年代，蔡英文得李登辉赏识，充当两岸政策顾问。昵称“小英”，作为台湾第一位女总统，其手腕引人关注。


蔡英文所学专业为国际贸易法。在为李登辉当顾问的年代，她与主张两岸是特殊国与国关系的“两国论”的形成密切相关。2008年民进党在总统大选中惨败，蔡英文当选民进党首位女主席，打出重清廉、重政策的形象，推动了给人以“批判政党”形象的民进党的改革。

    蔡英文曾表示父亲教育她要保持冷静与理性，因此她不善于表达自己的感情。她也极少强调自己是一名女性。蔡英文对工作要求十分严格，一位民进党地方干部称蔡英文并非独断专行，而是悉心听取意见后再下达命令。还有观点认为蔡英文厌恶党内的权力斗争，不建立属于自己的派系既是她的优势也是她的短板。

    蔡英文重视日台关系，与日本首相安倍晋三之间也有往来。在自民党还是在野党的时代，两人就曾多次举行会谈。2015年10月，蔡英文访日期间也曾私下与安倍会谈，并提出了经济合作等。

    此外，蔡英文与台湾唯一一位诺贝尔奖得主（化学奖）李远哲、全球最大半导体生产公司台湾积体电路制造（TSMC）董事长张忠谋等人也相交甚深

越墮落。越快樂

蔡英文上台，民进党立席次超过60%，台独取得了台湾政权。上台后的蔡英文在台独的道路上会怎么走、走多远，是未来台湾政局的看点之一。

一些分析认为，两岸关系从属于中美关系，台湾对美国是唯命是从、唯马首是瞻。从中美关系的大局出发，从全球政治的大格局着眼，从目前美国全球利益的焦点看，如果美国维系中美关系的基本平衡，美国是不会让蔡英文在台独的道路上为所欲为，换句话，蔡英文不会明独、急独的。

那么，如果美中关系不好了美国是否会以台湾作为对付中国的筹码？这是当然的，以前也发生过很多次这样的情况。姑且先不论这种做法对中国是否奏效，仅是台湾不过或终究是美国的筹码这件事，台湾毫无自主可言。筹码是什么东西？是掌股之中的东西，亦是可以弃之之物。当台湾作为美国的筹码权重太大时，就离被搬掉不远了。

从两岸经贸关系的角度看，大陆政府对一个台独的台湾政府有很多牌可以打，在这方面的分析已经很多。显然，一个经济与民生江河日下的政权是不会得到民众拥戴的，民进党玩4年之后下台也是一定的。相信蔡英文等对此非常清楚和清醒，不会贸然牺牲经济换台独，也换不成台独。民进党悍将陈菊早就乐此不彼的去大陆探访是可以说明问题的。

日本因素被认为是鼓励台独的一个重要因素。日本确实会对台独起到某种微妙的作用，但日本对于台湾问题的核心其实是美、日、台同盟的问题。不过，美、日、台之间的关系同样受到美、中关系的影响和制约；日本经济也同样与中国大陆有着千丝万缕的联系，如果再考虑中日的历史冤仇及宿敌思维，没有很特别的情况，日本至少在表面上不会与台独的行为走得太近、甚至会避免瓜葛。毕竟，本国的核心利益才是第一位的。

这里也要谈到中国的反国家分裂法。中国制定这部法律，显然是已经考虑到了台湾台独掌权的情况。显然，台湾的台独政权，为反分裂法的实施有了具体的目标。如果有人以身试法，会催化中国统一的历史进程。也有人认为中国的国家反分裂法是一纸空文，下这样的结论大概为时过早，反国家分裂法至少会让台独受到某种程度的制约，反国家分裂法也是中华人民共和国对于中国统一的国家意志的具体体现。国家意志的力量是强大的。

蔡英文公开的台独活动显然是行不通的，但蔡英文在台独事业方面并非无事可做，推销台独理念，去中国化，应该蔡英文、民进党在未来的几年去致力推动的。他们会如鸭子划水般的去中国化，会在文化、教育等领域去中国化，会在台湾年轻一代中继续去中国化；不承认九二共识或是刻意模糊九二共识的目的也是去中国化；割断历史、歪曲历史、妖魔化中共、主权论、尊严论等行销台独理念的活动在台湾会愈演愈烈。

如果台湾新一代人从根本上没有对于中国的认同感、台湾社会没有对中国的认同感，台独自然就水到渠成了。事实上，陈水扁执政期间民进党去中国化已经很成功了，现在台湾很多30岁以下的年轻人对中国都缺少认同。全方位的推销台独理念、培养下一代台独力量，应该是蔡英文在思想文化领域的举措；在经济方面蔡英文会依赖TPP或是有如媒体分析的押宝TPP。从某种意义上看，在破坏两岸关系方面，蔡英文的危险要远大于陈水扁。

虽然蔡英文不大可能明独，但指望台独理念已入骨七分的蔡英文去维系两岸关系的稳定及两岸和平是靠不住的；未来两岸关系的发展不容乐观。中国政府应该从国民党再次失去政权反思对台工作，特别要反思已经在全球范围开展10多年的反独促统、和平统一为什么奏效甚微？台湾民众已经用选票说话，就不要再报期望台湾人民“觉醒”的幻想。

另外，让民间的力量去做推动祖国统一大业的主角是否本末倒置？大陆政府的两岸经贸政策是否让台湾的青年人受害？对于台湾岛内的去中国化是否有应对措施？不过，担忧是担忧，该反思也要反思，应该看到的是，在中国实施一带一路的国家发展大战略之下，台湾问题小了很多，顺其自然也无妨。一个台独政权最终为中国统一的国家意志所消灭，是符合历史逻辑的。