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[基督城/坎特伯雷] 央行要加息了 12各月内的通胀率5.3% [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2011-7-18 18:08:36 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览 微信分享

还以为这里比国内强呢原来到处都差不多

加息对贷款买房可不是好事啊

Inflation has hit the highest level in a generation, with increases in petrol and last year's rise in GST causing the consumer price index to climb by 5.3 per cent over the last 12 months.
   This morning Statistics New Zealand said the CPI increased by 1 per cent in the three months to June 30, boosted mainly by record high fuel prices and increases in the cost of food.
   The New Zealand dollar climbed on the news, hitting a fresh post-float high against the British pound, buying 52.62 pence just after 11am. It also hit a five-year high against the Euro at 60.04 euro cents, and 84.88c against the greenback.
   Analysts had expected inflation of 5.1 per cent, and the higher rate is likely to see anticipation that the Reserve Bank will have to increase the official cash rate more aggressively than expected.
   The rate is currently at 2.5 per cent. ANZ economists said this morning that the official cash rate was ''on borrowed time''.
   The bank's central view is that the OCR will be held at the current 2.5 per cent until December, when it will be raised by 0.5 per cent, however it added that any further surprises in inflation would mean the likelihood would be that Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard would increase rates in September.
   This morning the probability of an interest rate increase in October rose to 80 per cent, based on interest rates markets, Westpac economists said.
   Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said the Reserve Bank would be able to ignore the headline rate of inflation because of the impact of the increase in GST, which will drop out over the next two quarters.
   However the strong rate was likely to impact the public's expectations, which could lead to inflation remaining high until next year.
   ''The RBNZ has made a crucial assumption that inflation expectations will ease back to within the 1-3 per cent target band, something that becomes less likely when observed inflation remains so high.''
   Inflation is now running at its highest level since the second quarter of 1990, when the CPI hit 7.6 per cent. The 1990 spike was also caused by an increase in GST, when it was raised from 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent.
   "The 1.0 percent increase in the CPI reflects higher prices for petrol, food, air travel, and electricity," Statistics NZ's prices manager Chris Pike said.
   The transport component of inflation rose by 2.7 per cent in the June quarter, with petrol prices also influencing air fares.
   "Petrol prices reached a new peak in early May 2011 - slightly above their peak in July 2008 - before decreasing later in May and June," Pike said.
      Statistics New Zealand said that if GST had not increased last year, the annual rate of inflation would have been 3.3 per cent, outside the Reserve Bank's inflation target of 1-3 per cent.
   Nine of the 11 groups used to measure inflation rose during the quarter, with the price of communication, and alcohol and tobacco, both dropping.
   A sharp rise in the cost of vegetables especially tomatoes, which rose 63.6 per cent because of the Queensland floods, was offset by lower fruit prices, which dropped 9.2 per cent.
   Council of Trade Unions economist Bill Rosenberg said the rate was a sign that workers were being hit by the increase in GST and big increases in the price of food, electricity and petrol prices.
   "These are all increases in purchases which people can’t avoid. It particularly hurts people on low incomes. Unions will be pushing hard for reasonable wage and salary increases to compensate for these increased costs," he said.
   "Wages are not keeping up with CPI inflation, with or without the GST increase.''
   The CPI figures come after gross domestic product grew 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, twice the forecast pace