[兴趣阅读] 人类史上唯一准确地震预测是在中国, 老毛 ,毛总的团队

金牌卧底

1974 中国官方发动训练100000 大军地震预测团, 通过观察异常现象总结规律预测地震.

1975年2月 中国官方下令疏散撤离一人口超过百万的北部城市 haicheng (海城?), 疏散结束的第二天, 当地放生 7.3 级大地震, 几十万生命幸免于难...

此为历史上唯一一次准确预测的地震.
It's considered the only successful earthquake prediction in history

可惜预测队并不能每次准确预测, 1976年的唐山地震前异像寥寥, 唐山地震损失惨重.

[扩展阅读] 科学界少有的绝对陈述句: 地震不可预测

http://io9.com/#!5783159/why-we-will-probably-never-be-able-to-predict-the-next-big-earthquake (英文)

In 1974, China's National Earthquake Bureau made two crucial decisions: that a major earthquake would hit the country within the next two years, and that strange animal behavior and other weird phenomena could be a useful predictor a coming earthquake. Over 100,000 "honorary observers" were trained to be on the lookout for animals behaving as though scared or anxious, for well water that suddenly clouded and bubbled, and for random lightning strikes in clear skies, among other things.

Shortly after a minor earthquake in December 1974, reports started flooding in reporting all these events, and after a string of more small tremors in February 1975, Chinese officials made the decision to evacuate the people of Haicheng, a northern city with a population of over a million. The day after the evacuation, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck, and experts have predicted that over 150,000 people would have been killed or injured if the government had not stepped in at precisely the right moment.

It's considered the only successful earthquake prediction in history, although it's still debated whether the officials were acting on the unusual signs, the swarm of minor quakes, or a combination of the two. This kicked off a minor buzz of renewed excitement for earthquake prediction among seismologists, and the U.S. National Research Council even issued a report in 1976 that short-term earthquake prediction would be a reality within ten years.

But even this doesn't have a happy ending. On July 28, 1976, a pair of 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit the northern Chinese city of Tangshan, and this time there was little to no advanced warning. The earthquake left about 250,000 people dead and another 164,000 seriously injured. For all the good their prediction methods had done in Haicheng, they had been useless in Tangshan, leaving it an open question whether the initial "success" was just a spectacularly lucky coincidence.

飘一季心情

那么厉害。。。。。。。

新马甸甸

唐山地震之前据说也有预测到，但是当时社会的政治背景一片混乱，没有人关心，只是唐山不远的一个小县城成功疏散人群，躲过了地震，当时疏散的时候，负责人是把命压上去的，说要是误报了他自己负全责。结果隔壁县城死伤惨重，他们只有3个人死亡，还是因为不愿意走才被砸死的。当时算是个奇迹了。

所以我觉得应该能预测到，虽然不是很准，但是要是本着宁信其有的态度小心对待还是有好处的。

leo1977

好像海城是地震过，

wyni_ren

据说当时唐山地震是有预测到的。。。。但是并没有被上级重视，所以被压下来了。。。。而且是个老人。之前好像在开心网还是哪里看过这个报道。。。。

归来开放

据说当时唐山地震是有预测到的。。。。但是并没有被上级重视，所以被压下来了。。。。而且是个老人。之前好像在开心网还是哪里看过这个报道。。。。
wyni_ren 发表于 2011-3-19 19:54

开心网没几个真新闻吧

Ricoboby

地震很难准确预测的，如果很准，9成是蒙对的。

netic

开心网没几个真新闻吧
归来开放 发表于 2011-3-19 20:03

开心网就是开着开心的地方，真相早就被和谐了，看不到的。我上次在新浪微博发了个关于日本地震的帖子，就被和谐了。

angus-an

。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。一切都会好的。。