一直说的冬天。。大家感觉到了吗？

love_3_month

happyhao 发表于 2017-3-8 22:06
我们当时9.5都还过。。。。撑不住的就一大批了。。。

至少还有2年调整期啦。

love_3_month

Robbi 发表于 2017-3-8 21:42
是啊， 你说这个点子我昨晚睡觉的时候也意识到了。。

特别以后对于capital要求的提高了之后，除了成本高 ...

握手握手。。。

NewLynnHse

love_3_month 发表于 2017-3-8 16:04
don't 应该是didn't吧，难道现在还有机会。。。。

你觉得是didn't了啊？

BJ0108

记得有个“高人”说，利率升高，是因为经济好，经济好，当然房价涨的更高了。
反正总结就是，买房一定是挣钱的。
希望如此吧，还好我没有听他的大呼呼，借一屁股的债。

seakiwi

现在的确借贷的数额比以前大多了，以前借个60万就算多了，现在屁都不是。

现在别说9.5，7都够喝一壶的了。

V7

Robbi 发表于 2017-3-8 21:42
是啊， 你说这个点子我昨晚睡觉的时候也意识到了。。

特别以后对于capital要求的提高了之后，除了成本高 ...

说的好，球踢的好不好19年见分晓。

ilovesoymilk

说现在住房是刚需，大家一窝蜂的去搞开发，盖出来的房子都是１００中高，买家在哪里？指望本地的首次购房者买这些房子吗？本地的普通收入能买得起吗？投资者也不会去买这些。海外的钱进不来，指着那几个中资银行的贷款就能把这些房子扫了？看看long bay卖房情况就知道了。银行对开发的贷款也卡的非常紧，认识的一些小开发商资金已经断链了。等着看吧。

bungyjumping999

CAUSES and EFFECTS

GFC part 1 -  injection and printing money to intoxicate the economy.         
             consequences: assets bubble, stocks bubble, banks try to get rid of the money by lending out in cheap interest. Benefit certain group of people, and marginalised working class people. Caught countries with greater rule of law by surprise in terms of real estate bubble ( eg nz, australia, london, canada, singapore, Hong kong etc ).

Intoxication and hangover is now happening: how to sort out this mess?

GFC past 2 is a continuation of part 1.
- change of government ( may do more harm than good, but voters psychology is change for better)
- protectionism - especially countries with greater rule of law
- better managed rules and regulation on capital inflow and outflow, watchdog on money laundering.
- managed immigration and control
- Credit control and intervention rules ( eg Vancouver, Auckland, singapore)
- More are to come.......

veras

套用
东尼。亚历山大 的道歉/澄清文

The world has changed. Following deregulation of the financial markets and institutions over 1984/85 the main problem for anyone wanting to get a loan shifted from rationing of a limited credit supply to price. It is now shifting back again. Banks face far greater demand from people wanting to go into debt with our assistance than we can satisfy through raising funds domestically.

Some credit rationing has already occurred via the LVRs. Some has manifested itself through new property developers struggling to find a financier. Next will likely be large corporates having to source funds in their own name from offshore and maybe via bonds. Without increased deposits or access to funding further rationing of credit is on the way, with the next housing cycle almost certain to see it in the form of Reserve Bank imposed debt to income ratios, as sought by the RB and recommended this week by the IMF.

心如明镜啊

markrey

短期不敢说.....经济周期已经混乱, 低利率时代还没走完。
全球经济还需要很久的低利率来维持，否则世界玩不转。

美国是想加息，但是加息的后果美国是否能够完全承担，TRUMP在任期间还是希望低利息，因为要出口。美金就不能太高。

另外，新西兰的核心资源就那么多，核心地段更是有限，往外扩展是需要大量的基础建设的，不是有个房子就好了。所以个人认为，3-9月会缓慢上涨，大选后，政策确认后，还有一轮快速上涨，然后会在慢慢来。再回到之前已经不太可能。

全球人口继续在流动，更好的环境和食品，教育资源，生活品质是未来世界的主要需求，人口必需向此流动。NZ尽管不是那么第一选择，但是也是一个较为适合生存的地区。大量中产会有兴趣选择这里。所以这是一个正向的流动周期，并且同时带来经济的刺激和发展。

xpd2000

ilovesoymilk 发表于 2017-3-9 15:17
说现在住房是刚需，大家一窝蜂的去搞开发，盖出来的房子都是１００中高，买家在哪里？指望本地的首次购房者 ...

Longbay感觉还有好多房子跟地要上市。
不过货币泛滥的年代，有钱人多

jsmith2

你在夏天说现在是冬天，当然没人感觉到