地价还会疯涨吗？NPS 出来后对地价有没有限制作用？

mwe23

Smith puts out National Policy Statement that requires high growth Councils to open up 15% more land than is forecast to be required; NPS to be in place by Oct and back up Unitary Plan; Smith sees Commissioner for Auckland not needed
Building and Housing Minister Nick Smith has announced a proposal for a National Policy Statement (NPS) on Urban Development Capacity that would require high growth Councils such as the Auckland Council to release 15% more developable land than it is forecast to need over the long term in an attempt to prevent a repeat of the quadrupling of land prices seen there in the last 25 years.
The much-trumpeted NPS is a tool the central Government can use under the existing Resource Management Act (RMA) to direct Councils to take certain factors into account when designing their regional and district plans. Smith said the NPS would 'buttress' the current process to complete a Unitary Plan for Auckland and avoid the need for Commissioners to be appointed if the Council failed to agree a plan to release enough land.
Smith said the NPS and the RMA gave the Government the power to direct changes to Auckland's plans if the Council did not agree a Unitary Plan in August that met its long term development capacity requirements. The Independent Hearings Panel (IHP) is due to release its proposed Unitary Plan for the approval of the Council by August 19.
Asked if the Government would appoint commissioners to run Auckland if the Council rejected the IHP's proposal, Smith said the NPS and the RMA gave the Government the power to centrally direct changes to Auckland's plans if a Unitary Plan was not agreed.
"There is no need for that action (appointing commissioners) given the very strong set of directive powers," Smith told a news conference where the NPS was released.
The NPS will be open for submissions until July 15 and Smith said the Government aimed to gazette the NPS to make it legally binding from October, which would line with the timing of the introduction of the Auckland Unitary Plan and changes to the Resource Management Act.
"This new policy is about tackling the long-term root cause of New Zealand's housing affordability problems. Insufficient land supply in Auckland has seen median section prices rise from $100,000 in 1990 to $450,000 now - an increase of 350 per cent. In the same time, building costs rose 78 per cent and the Consumer Price Index 71 per cent," Smith said.
Here's the detail
The NPS requires that Councils have enough land in their city and district plans to match projected growth and that they monitor and respond to housing affordability data, building and resource consent data, and value of land on the urban boundaries.
"Councils would have to take into account the difference between planned and commercially feasible development capacity, and provide for over-supply to ensure competition (20 per cent short to medium-term, 15 per cent long-term)," Smith said.
The NPS would also require Councils co-ordinate their infrastructure and ensure their consenting processes were "customer focused" and recognise the national significance of ensuring sufficient land is available over local interests.
"This policy is about a culture change to support development that connects planning decisions to economics, ensures plans are regularly updated and recognises the national importance of housing," Smith said.
The NPS was graduated so high growth cities (more than 10% population growth per decade) had tougher requirements than medium growth cities (5-10% population growth per decade).
The NPS made no mention of or changes to the infrastructure funding problem faced by high growth Councils that were unable or unwilling to raise more debt. It also did not abolish the Rural Urban Boundary.
Political reaction
Labour Housing Spokesman Phil Twyford said the NPS was a damp squib that was unlikely to make much difference in Auckland.
“The Government has been talking tough for the past few weeks. You’d think this was going to be the big gun, but its only Nick Smith firing blanks. The land-bankers and speculators will read the NPS and rub their hands with glee," Twyfor said.
“It fails the two crucial tests. It has nothing to say about how infrastructure will be financed, leaving Auckland ratepayers to wonder whether they will be left to pay the $17 billion cost of new infrastructure needed to support Auckland’s growth. “nd for all National’s huffing and puffing about getting rid of the urban growth boundary, it says nothing about abolishing the boundary and replacing it with a smarter way of managing urban growth," he said.
“The NPS sets up a bureaucratic system for assessing the projected demand for housing and business land, and measuring that against the estimated capacity of land and dwellings. If the development capacity falls short then the Council is expected to amend its plans to free up more land. “Where’s the promised game-changer? I’ll be interested to hear Auckland Council’s response, but I am pretty sure they will look at the NPS and say ‘no problem, we are already doing this’," he said.
“National has been blaming the RMA and Councils for expensive housing for the past 10 years. It has been a very long reveal, but this National Policy Statement is final proof that when it comes to the Government’s housing policy, the emperor has no clothes.”

大家可以讨论讨论。。。

rainandshine

沙发〜〜〜〜太长了〜〜〜〜翻译一下

vmoto

hkw516 发表于 2016-6-3 09:41
英文不好，求楼主翻译

史密斯推出需要高增长议会开拓比预计将需要15％以上的国家土地政策声明; NPS要到位华侨城和备份酉计划;史密斯认为专员不需要奥克兰
建设和住房部长尼克·史密斯宣布城市发展能力的国家政策声明（NPS）的建议，要求高增长政局如奥克兰市政府发布比它预计将需要在长期内15％以上的可开发土地在试图防止土地价格在过去25年来见过的有翻两番的重复。
备受鼓吹NPS是一个工具，中央政府可以在现有的资源管理法案（RMA）使用直接理事会设计其区域和地区计划时，采取一定的因素考虑在内。史密斯说，NPS将'支撑'当前进程来完成奥克兰酉计划，避免需要被任命为委员如果安理会未能达成一致计划释放足够的土地。
Smith表示，NPS和RMA给了政府直接更改奥克兰的计划，如果安理会不同意酉计划在八月能够满足其长期发展能力的要求的权力。独立听证委员会（IHP）是由于由8月19日公布其拟酉计划理事会批准。
当被问及如果政府将任命委员运行奥克兰如果安理会拒绝了国际水文计划的建议，史密斯说，NPS和RMA给了政府集中直接更改奥克兰的计划，如果一个单一计划未获得电源。
“有没有必要采取行动给定一组非常强大的指令权力（任命委员），”史密斯在记者会上表示，其中NPS被释放。
该NPS将开放提交，直到7月15日和史密斯说，政府的目标是宪报公布NPS，使其从法律上月，这将引进奥克兰单一计划和改变资源管理法的计时线结合。
“这个新政策是关于解决新西兰住房负担能力问题的长期根源，土地供应不足在奥克兰已经看到中间部分价格从$ 100,000上升，1990年为$ 450,000，现在 - ，同比增长350％。在同一时间，建筑成本上涨了78％和％的居民消费价格指数71，“史密斯说。
下面是详细
该NPS要求议会在他们的城市和地区规划，以配合预期增长足够的土地，他们监控和住房负担能力的数据，建设和资源数据的同意，而土地价值作出回应对城市边界。
“理事会将不得不考虑到规划和商业上可行的发展能力之间的差异，并提供过度供应，确保比赛（每短期至中期的20％的，15％的长期），”史密斯说。
该NPS还需要议会统筹基础设施建设，确保他们同意的过程是“以客户为中心”，并认识到确保足够的土地可以对地方利益的国家的意义。
“这个政策是关于文化变革，以支持规划的决定连接到经济学，确保计划定期更新，并承认国家住房发展的重要性，”史密斯说。
该NPS毕业了这么高增长城市（每十年人口增长超过10％）有较中型城市的增长（每十年人口增长5-10％）更严格的要求。
该NPS没有提到或改变所面临的是不能或不愿筹集更多的债务，高增长政局的基础设施建设资金问题。它也没有废除农村城市边界。
政治反应
工党发言人住房菲尔特怀福德称，NPS是一纸空文，这是不太可能在奥克兰太大的差别。
“政府一直口气强硬，在过去几个星期。你会认为这将是大枪，但它唯一的尼克·史密斯射击空白。土地银行家和投机者将读取NPS和用手揉搓，高兴，“Twyfor说。
“它未能通过两个关键测试。它有什么可说的基础设施将如何进行融资，让奥克兰纳税人想知道他们是否会留下来支付，支持奥克兰的经济增长需要新的基础设施的$ 17日十亿成本。 “第二对所有国家的怨声载道有关摆脱城市增长边界，它没有提到取消边界和管理城市增长的一个更聪明的办法取代它，”他说。
“在NPS建立了一个官僚体系来评估住房和经营性用地的预计需求，以及测量，对土地和住房的估计容量。如果开发能力达不到那么，安理会预计将修改其计划，以腾出更多的土地。 “哪里的承诺的改变游戏规则？我会很感兴趣地听到奥克兰市议会的反应，但我敢肯定，他们将着眼于NPS说'没问题，我们已经这样做了“，”他说。
“国家一直指责RMA和理事会昂贵的住房在过去的10年。这是一个很长的透露，但是这个国家的政策声明是最后的证明，当它涉及到政府的房屋政策，皇帝没有穿衣服。“

kirikiri

vmoto 发表于 2016-6-3 09:55
史密斯推出需要高增长议会开拓比预计将需要15％以上的国家土地政策声明; NPS要到位华侨城和备份酉计划;史 ...

够够翻译的不错

陌生的香港人

或者先解釋一下這個 National Policy Statement 究竟是什麼東西

National Policy Statement 是資源管理法 (Resource Management Act  就是英文原文的“RMA" -  新西蘭掌管城市規劃/自然資源運用的根本大法）裡面N種政策法令的最高級別 凌駕於各級地方政府的一切規劃法令/文件  (現在管土地利用的District Plans 和將會取代奧克蘭DPs 鬧得沸沸揚揚的 Unitary Plan 都屬於這個系統裡面）或者可以這樣說  NPS就好像一把尚方寶劍  一出手其他各級地方政府都一定要跟從  包括搞了3年諮詢又諮詢  將近完工的 Unitary Plan 因為裡面一條新修訂的  Rural Urban Boundary 來限制市區繼續無限制地擴張 中央政府 (國家黨/之前也包括工黨) 老批評這個boundary 是房價的罪魁禍首 卻好像忘記這條boundary 其實自上世紀末1998年開始就一直存在

事實上 自從資源管理法自上個世紀1991年實施而來 中央政府從來都是懶得制定NPS 的  任由下面各級councils自己瞎摸象  以致差不多30年了才只有那4 5部NPS  現在這個管urban development capacity 的NPS 可以說是國家黨政府對天價房產無計可施在找事來做的急就章 （就像之前那個什麼Special Housing Area   實施幾年證實效用根本不大  新建屋量遠遠低於目標 而房價則一直飆升 ）

以前都說過 以一個才140萬人口的城市 奧克蘭其實哪裡會不夠土地？只是密度太低 土地發展限制太多而已 而房價更主要是基建/報批成本太高 移民太多  同胞們的炒賣（不能否認同胞們  相對各主族群確是最為熱衷這個 這不是種族歧視而是客觀事實) /海外熱錢等都是原因  不循財政/稅務方面下手  卻老以為用城市規劃方式可以壓抑樓價  以為房產市場就是簡單的demand supply  這些政客真的弱智得可以

GOODWORK

“政府一直口气强硬，在过去几个星期。你会认为这将是大枪，但它唯一的尼克·史密斯射击空白。土地银行家和投机者将读取NPS和用手揉搓，高兴，“

亮了

狂奔的蜗牛!!!

政客不是弱智，是太聪明了！
完美的表现了他们对房价的担忧和控制房价的决心。虽然他们不会做任何事，但是演技绝对可以得奥斯卡奖了！

iamsunshine

奥斯卡+1！！！！

park45

陌生的香港人 发表于 2016-6-3 11:02
或者先解釋一下這個 National Policy Statement 究竟是什麼東西

National Policy Statement 是資源管理法  ...

与其说這些政客真的弱智得可以，不如说這些政客戏演得正好。房价如此疯涨，与共（政府的各项收费），与私（他们自己的投资房）都是难得利好。
楼上说的好“虽然他们不会做任何事，但是演技绝对可以得奥斯卡奖了！“。

love_3_month

最后的问题还是钱哪里来

比如，本来是农场，现在变居民区，没问题，开发商来造房子，但是需要市政府来通水，平路

房子造出来，几千几百户，有没有配套的小学中学，这都要提前几年规划好吧，谁出钱

然后，现有的交通高速针对目前的人口已经快堵死了，在某个地方又来这么多人，道路和公交又是需要投入的

国家的钱，收税，市政府的钱，收地税，民众会愿意吗。。。。

挺难的。。。。

espedd

从制定政策， 政策发布， 到政策实施， 到最后开始有实际效果， 在新西兰 还要等好几年吧
另外真正能在房地产上赚大钱的都要提前布局， 甘于寂寞， 等待区域配套成熟。价格开始猛涨后抛盘。。
根据国内一线城市不恰当的对比， 现在所有打算的政策只不过暂时抑制增长， 回头一旦放松， 就要报复性反弹。 跟弹簧一个道理。。。。新西兰房产市场发展远未到头。。。。

park45

espedd 发表于 2016-6-7 15:59
从制定政策， 政策发布， 到政策实施， 到最后开始有实际效果， 在新西兰 还要等好几年吧
另外真正能在房 ...

炒房炒地靠的是信心，炒得就是预期。像现在这样倒贴的持有投资房的，如果知道几年后大量的地块投入市场，哪里来的信心继续持有？再看看这些年几个大涨的新区，涨得多是地价，而建房成本和地价比起来，涨得都不是很多。如果几年后有大量的地块投入市场。至于囤积地的，那就更不用说了。

espedd

park45 发表于 2016-6-8 08:06
炒房炒地靠的是信心，炒得就是预期。像现在这样倒贴的持有投资房的，如果知道几年后大量的地块投入市场， ...

地块无法大量投放市场， 基础设置和配套都没有跟上。哪些短期无法形成大型社区配套的地块， 高价买了就是买套。 好的地块价格不会跌， 就跟国内1线城市，离市中心越近的地块价格越贵。。。
哪些偏远的地块。。。投放了，市场认可不认可还是个问题。。。
买房就是买LOCATION