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[论事] Some Interesting Stuff [复制链接]

Lease

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电梯直达

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发表于 2014-4-13 14:00:27 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览 微信分享

本帖最后由 Lease 于 2014-4-13 16:30 编辑

昨天家里大扫除，一些旧货被翻了出来，其中有一本2004年9月的Kiwi Property Investor Magazine, 翻了一下发现其中一篇文章是BNZ首席经济学家Tony Alexander写的当时（即上一个）房地产牛市的一些成因。我把这些成因贴在这里，和现在这个牛市做一个比较，看这些原因在现在是否依然有效。

Main Causes for Last NZ Property Boom                                                       Still Valid in Today's Boom?

1. Low interest rates with floating mortgage rates
averaging 7.5% over the past five years, versus                                           Yes, floating mortgage rates are even
10% from 1995-1999 and 12% from 1990-1994.                                           lower now.

2. The unemployment rate falling to its lowest level                                        Yes, now it's three-year low, still have
in 17 years at 4%.                                                                                        room to improve.

3. A net migration gain of 78,000 people over the                                        Yes, NZ just record its highest net
past five years with a record gain of 43,000 in the                                        migration gain in January 2014.
year to May 2003.

4. Related to this, house buying from Kiwis who
departed in the 1980s and 1990s and are now                                              Yes, more overseas Kiwis back to home
returning to raise families.                                                                         now, particularly from Australia.

5. A dwelling shortage created by building consent                                     Yes, most of time in last 20 years, building
numbers in mid-2001 lying about 9% below their                                        consent has been over 20,000,
ten year average                                                                                     with boom time typically reached over
                                                                                                            30,000. Now it's just over 20,000

6. Surging farm incomes courtesy of good commodity                               Yes, thanks for good dairy prices.
prices.

7. Baby boomer(born 1946-61) realising their savings are                            No. now it's been 10 years time. Large
insufficient to fund a comfortable retirement so using their                            numberof baby boomers have retired
cash assets to gear into housing instead.                                                    already.

8. Five years of above-average economic growth at 3.8%                            Yes, NZ economy is rock star in
per annum versus 3% the previous five years and 1.4% from                      developed nations.
1990-1994

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