我知道这个是澳洲新闻，我想问新西兰有没有这些数据，会不会崩盘？

NewLynnHse

新西兰买投资房可能没有这么大的风险，不过那些interest only的可能有不少是裸泳的。不知道这里有没有数据，有多少房贷是interest only的，什么时候变P&I。

Fears of housing 'fire sale' as interest-only loans roll into principal plus interest
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-19/fears-as-interest-only-loans-roll-into-principal-plus-interest/9886430



As property prices in Australia have climbed over the past few years, thousands of Australians desperate to get a foothold on the property ladder have used interest-only loans.

But the interest-only period on these loans doesn't last forever.

Over the next three years, interest-only loans worth a combined total of about $360 billion will roll over to interest plus principal — and that means borrowers will face higher repayments.....

DAHUA仔

早就跳出三界外，不在五行中了吧

auckland.clark

的确有不少投资客是只付利息的，并且真的是靠租金养房。听说的几个人，帐上真的是2周租金的资金，租客跑了就无力支付贷款。

lm135

裸泳的都比较安全吧，毕竟房子跌了银行不敢轻易动他们，贷款还了40%左右最惨，银行强拍都找这种下手，起码能回笼资金还不怕拍不出去，裸泳的一旦想按贷款价拍出去，难。人家都说欠钱的是大爷，欠的越多银行就越照顾

lianlian88

lm135 发表于 2018-7-1 12:10
裸泳的都比较安全吧，毕竟房子跌了银行不敢轻易动他们，贷款还了40%左右最惨，银行强拍都找这种下手，起码 ...

银行也会止损的，到时候能收多少就收多少的，还是会强拍的。银行手上的大数据风险测评的因素比我们看得到的多的多

AUprince

我认识好几个是裸泳的，下半年准备回头是岸了，房地产自工党上台后不乐观了

trdeyoualbert

AUprince 发表于 2018-7-1 12:39
我认识好几个是裸泳的，下半年准备回头是岸了，房地产自工党上台后不乐观了 ...

能回头吗            

trdeyoualbert

所以老鼠无现金在手怎么投资房子
等租金付贷款是裸泳
所所以老鼠不是自个打脸

NewLynnHse

trdeyoualbert 发表于 2018-7-1 12:54
所以老鼠无现金在手怎么投资房子
等租金付贷款是裸泳
所所以老鼠不是自个打脸 ...

呵呵。。。

bungyjumping999

When people talked about Cash flow positive, they talked about Interest only loan. They never talked about Capital repayment.

So, up to 5 years or even more, the amount owed (principal sum) still remains the same. Of course, they assume there will be capital gain. If the bank refused interest only payment and request capital sum as well, many will not be talking about cash flow positive anymore or talking taking one year off without working and tour around the world on a boat.

Between 2006 -2010, there was no capital gain and with inflation-adjusted depreciation. The interest for terms deposit was about 8% (in 2007), I assumed interest payment was around 10% at that time....


If no or little capital gain in the next 5 years, interest on upward pressure....... government interventions ( taxes, overseas investment amendment bill (Act) came into full swing), by then, who are swimming naked will be more obvious.

anzac_corp

选interest only不过是因为要多留下点现金在手上可以继续投资

现在既然没有啥好的投资标的，经济前景也不明，还一点本金也不失是稳健的做法

pategao

我一直都是interests only 啊，so what

NewLynnHse

pategao 发表于 2018-7-1 15:38
我一直都是interests only 啊，so what

这边应该没事，因为房子是一直都在涨价的，interest only才是聪明人。

澳洲那个比较悲剧，投资错地方，房价腰斩，租金腰斩

我真不是孙红雷

我就是除了自住房，投资房都是interest only啊，30年呢。。。怎么想也没危险，裸泳指什么？

NewLynnHse

我真不是孙红雷 发表于 2018-7-1 15:43
我就是除了自住房，投资房都是interest only啊，30年呢。。。怎么想也没危险，裸泳指什么？ ...

对啊，这里银行好像没说多少年后就一定要P&I，澳洲那个说5年后就得换成P&I，这样会干死一群人。。。哈哈

我真不是孙红雷

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-7-1 15:45
对啊，这里银行好像没说多少年后就一定要P&I，澳洲那个说5年后就得换成P&I，这样会干死一群人。。。哈哈 ...

这也只是apply新投资者吧。已经签了30年的IO不影响

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-1 15:10
When people talked about Cash flow positive, they talked about Interest only loan. They never talked ...

I don't think loan interest will be up to 10% for this cycle. My guess is 6% is probably the most. RBNZ expects OCR will rise from the end of 2019, and a new economic or financial crisis is not far away by then.

Unsure if NZ property price will hit harshly. It depends on external factors.

房奴甲

auckland.clark 发表于 2018-7-1 12:07
的确有不少投资客是只付利息的，并且真的是靠租金养房。听说的几个人，帐上真的是2周租金的资金，租客跑了 ...

说的是我吧？我只能找不跑的房客……

bungyjumping999

Lease 发表于 2018-7-1 15:57
I don't think loan interest will be up to 10% for this cycle. My guess is 6% is probably the most. ...

You are right, the interest is modest at 6% but the amount of loan is different from 2008 era.

In 2008, most people's housing loan is at 200k as most houses in AKL is around 400k

This round low interest and high mortgage sum. if interest scale tips higher, property value goes lower (depreciation due to government intervention etc), the pressure is on the banks and the borrowers.

when faced with pressure, what would the banks and borrowers do? See some samples in hong kong 1998.

P.S Assumptions:  provided no international shocks. by then.... haha.

rzrljb

别人问就说没有，不会，继续涨

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-7-1 16:37
You are right, the interest is modest at 6% but the amount of loan is different from 2008 era.

In  ...

There are losers for sure.

But by the end, wealth is still in the hands of minority.

love_3_month

我真不是孙红雷 发表于 2018-7-1 15:43
我就是除了自住房，投资房都是interest only啊，30年呢。。。怎么想也没危险，裸泳指什么？ ...

我的好像是5或者10年，你的确定是30年吗？

anz的是10年，asb的好像没说

bungyjumping999

love_3_month 发表于 2018-7-1 19:06
我的好像是5或者10年，你的确定是30年吗？

anz的是10年，asb的好像没说

Every time you fix, Bank will follow with a letter to say "interest only on loan payment is for a maximum of 2 years"

Banks do say that they can amend the terms of the Loan Agreement from time to time, just like amending their base lending rate.

See if you will receive this kind of letter/email (asking you to sign and return by email before the refix date) when you next refix for "interest only" repayment


the rationale is: If a person is 45 years old, the bank won't want to take a risk on interest-only loan on that person for too long. The bank also knows that if this kind of person gets unemployed due to the economic downturn, it is difficult for them to get re-employed again. So, get as much as possible from the principal sum repayment.

ronaldlu

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-7-1 15:45
对啊，这里银行好像没说多少年后就一定要P&I，澳洲那个说5年后就得换成P&I，这样会干死一群人。。。哈哈 ...

91年8w买第一套裸房5千首付，当时利息14.5%，一直裸到现在，还准备裸到下辈子，who cares.
裸贷看到存款了吗

NewLynnHse

ronaldlu 发表于 2018-7-1 20:10
91年8w买第一套裸房5千首付，当时利息14.5%，一直裸到现在，还准备裸到下辈子，who cares.
裸贷看到存款 ...

在这里没事，这里的风险没有澳洲那么大，从来也没听说过房子真的腰斩，房租也腰斩的。。。澳洲太危险了。。。哈哈

love_3_month

ronaldlu 发表于 2018-7-1 20:10
91年8w买第一套裸房5千首付，当时利息14.5%，一直裸到现在，还准备裸到下辈子，who cares.
裸贷看到存款 ...

是你上次说贷款的人也需要一些存款的，是吗

BJ0108

AUprince 发表于 2018-7-1 12:39
我认识好几个是裸泳的，下半年准备回头是岸了，房地产自工党上台后不乐观了 ...

看来工党的确做得很好。

BJ0108

原来挺多人是interest only的。基本上支持国家党，支持房价涨涨涨的大部分是 IO。这样子就好解释了，利益决定立场和观点而已。投票给国家党不见得有多高尚，多富有。
等到银行真的要本金利息一起还的时候，你们就知道每周需要自己垫进去三五百去还出租房贷款的痛苦了。

batmen

总拿IO说事，如果是真实收入贷的款，投资房5年到期，refinance换家又是5年，而且说不定哪天银行又改回可以IO做10年了