ZT:啊啊啊。。。哪来的崩盘啊？3个月一共挣了31亿！！！

NewLynnHse

Property sellers rake in $3bn over last three months, according to latest CoreLogic data
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12064254

House sellers across New Zealand are still cashing in despite some markets cooling off, pocketing $3.1 billion in profit during the first three months of 2018, new figures show.

The remarkable money being made in Kiwi property – even in Auckland where prices have flattened - shows just how big the country's housing boom has been, property experts say.

The median profit for each property sold in Auckland during the first quarter of the year was $352,000, accounting for nearly $1.2b in gross profit, data from property information company CoreLogic NZ shows.


.......

Marill

噢耶，房价十分坚韧，等存量消化得差不多就该大涨了，哈

等崩盘的空军兄弟们杯具了

joeistheman

no engli谁来翻译一下

rzrljb

崩盘主要是买的亏了，卖的不会亏的

V7

谁挣了31个亿？

NewLynnHse

V7 发表于 2018-6-5 10:40
谁挣了31个亿？

在2018年首三个月里卖房子的人们

中纽风行者

获利的大部分都是15年以前买房的人群，16年以后买房的获利的很少吧。

NewLynnHse

中纽风行者 发表于 2018-6-5 11:36
获利的大部分都是15年以前买房的人群，16年以后买房的获利的很少吧。

要看原始数据才知道。。。嘿嘿

bungyjumping999

"CoreLogic NZ's first Pain and Gain report for the year shows total losses from resales where sellers onsold for less than their original purchase price were $27.2m"


There are loses in the recent sale (from later comers). Not Just Gain.

261874939

我比较想知道16年左右入手的人，现在过的怎么样。

occc

261874939 发表于 2018-6-5 11:45
我比较想知道16年左右入手的人，现在过的怎么样。

爽，买了就是赚啊

中纽风行者

261874939 发表于 2018-6-5 11:45
我比较想知道16年左右入手的人，现在过的怎么样。

估计问题不大，没见几个赔钱抛售的。

NewLynnHse

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-6-5 11:45
"CoreLogic NZ's first Pain and Gain report for the year shows total losses from resales where seller ...

the lost is so small compared to the profits. Must be those swimming naked...haha

bungyjumping999

if the gain is just 2-3% a year, it is a lose (in real term).

Examples:
Holding Costs (rates, insurance, maintenance, vacancy etc)
Interest Costs.
Opportunity Costs.

Let's look at a scenario:

If a property is now reaching $1,000,000.
Rent: $450.00 (2 bedrooms, big land @ 950 sqm, single house zone), house not in good condition but with sea view, north shore.

Purchased in 2010 for $420K. loan fully repaid.

Look like the $1,000,000 is the limit for this property in this cycle (assuming it is).
It might take a few years for the next cycle, who knows?

It is a typical Asset rich, cash-flow poor property. What would you decide to do with this property?

a) Keep it and receive low return rent

b) Sell it and keep your 1 Million ( and invest when the time is right). Meanwhile, if you put in fixed deposit at 3.50%, the interest is actually $750 per week (after tax)

c) keep it and wait for next cycle? Now, do you have that time to wait? haha...Life is deprived because of other investments.

What would you do?

trdeyoualbert

老鼠杯具抢不到自沙

NewLynnHse

trdeyoualbert 发表于 2018-6-5 12:28
老鼠杯具抢不到自沙

哈哈，你没注意到我只在FML抢自沙？

subrina02

更多长期持有者变现而已，比如我家邻居8几年买的房 不到20万，今年三月卖了150万，账面利润130万。令一个邻居11年买的60万 今年3月卖了也是接近150万。 这都算12亿里的利润

trdeyoualbert

NewLynnHse 发表于 2018-6-5 12:31
哈哈，你没注意到我只在FML抢自沙？

还真没留意

subrina02

房市的涨跌和3个月日卖房者赚了多少，短期内没有多少关系。 反而赚走的实打实的真金白银，至于你接盘侠买高买低是另一码事，长线来看，只要持有足够长的时间，账面盈利总是会有的，哈哈*

jsmith2

這證明還有很多庫存未清。

V7

这个数据没有参考的意义啊，不算到年均都是耍流氓啊

天维投资

https://issuu.com/corelogicaustr ... 2018_nz_pain___gain

你们去看一眼原始数据很难吗？

只是想看消化完的可以看天维投资今天的微信推送~

天维投资

bungyjumping999 发表于 2018-6-5 11:56
if the gain is just 2-3% a year, it is a lose (in real term).

Examples:

只是拿奥克兰来说：

持有周期6.9年（中位），赚35.2万（中位）~

赔钱的持有周期1.9年（中位），赔2万（中位）~占比3.8%（其中投资者多于自住者）~

目前的行情超短线赚钱要靠技术~

投长线，房哥很期待您能找一个后悔7年前在奥克兰买房买太多的人，来讲讲自己的故事~

天维投资

joeistheman 发表于 2018-6-5 09:38
no engli谁来翻译一下

来看我们的微信？

DAHUA仔

天维投资 发表于 2018-6-5 14:20
只是拿奥克兰来说：

持有周期6.9年（中位），赚35.2万（中位）~

这么说从2年前开始看空没什么错

天维投资

DAHUA仔 发表于 2018-6-5 14:58
这么说从2年前开始看空没什么错

奥克兰卖房赔钱的人占比不到4%，这群赔钱的人持有房产时间的中位值是1.9年~

大哥原来您是关注       玩短线的（俗称炒房的那一波人）~              失敬失敬

bungyjumping999

The Peak looks like is about the time bright line Tax was introduced  which is 1/10/2015
After that, the speculative effect is slowing down.


Next event, will count on Overseas Investment amendment Act......... don't know when yet, but will have an impact.

Other smaller events:
- extension of bright line test to 5 years.
-Anti Money Laundering extending to Conveyancers & Real Estate Agents: July 2018 and Sept 2018 (?)
-Reducing immigrants.

External Factor:
International events - USA interest movements. Geopolitical events, Euro crisis management.

Internal Event:
How labour coalition is managing the country.
Investors confident
Currency depreciation


Unprecedented Increase in this cycle is a windfall for many..... but, might not happen in such a big swing again.

狂奔的蜗牛!!!

话说房市长线投资总是赚的。

tiannz

唉……已经是秋后的蚂蚱了，自我感觉还这么好可真是难得

DAHUA仔

天维投资 发表于 2018-6-5 15:00
奥克兰卖房赔钱的人占比不到4%，这群赔钱的人持有房产时间的中位值是1.9年~

大哥原来您是关注       玩短 ...

长线也好，短线也罢，省下2万吃吃喝喝买个表，总比仍盆儿里连个响儿都没有要好