ZT：Bernard Hickey: Predictions need a pinch of salt

NewLynnHse

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11192079

Pre-empting a rates hike and fixing your mortgage may not be a sure-fire plan

It's the surest of sure things, says every economist - interest rates will rise more than 2 per cent over the next two years, so now is the time to fix your mortgage to avoid the pain.

But borrowers with longer memories will recall we've been here many times over the past five years, and every time the prediction has been quashed by an unexpected event that meant interest rates didn't rise much, or at all.

Every December quarter since 2009, the Reserve Bank has said it would increase the official cash rate over the next two years. That forecast increase has varied between 0.8 and almost 3 per cent, but an increase has always been expected.

The biggest scare was in December 2009, when the Reserve Bank forecast the cash rate would rise more than 2.5 per cent to at least 5 per cent, suggesting variable rates of well over 8 per cent. Many economists recommended fixing mortgages for two years or more, and many borrowers took their advice. Some thought they were very clever and fixed them for five years at more than 8.5 per cent, fearing a return to 2007/08 level rates of more than 10 per cent.


..............

肉肉妈

新西兰已经越来越重视国际环境，加息什么都是浮云，不是由新西兰来话事啊。

aafu

最近几次加息事后都证明是极其愚蠢的行为。所谓的经济学家背后都站着贪婪的银行家和与他们有千丝万缕般联系的愚蠢的政府。资本主义社会是由资本主导的，而资本是由银行家控制的。

onetreehill1

现在新西兰的经济和世界上其它大国挂钩的啦，美国末日博士预言美国股市将会大崩溃，如果不幸言中，那么美国经济将面临倒退，那么加息就成了泡影