ZT: Property crash 'unlikely' - experts

NewLynnHse

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11208587
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However, property experts in New Zealand are doubtful there will be a sudden collapse in the housing market.

Real Estate Institute chief executive Helen O'Sullivan said predictions like Mr Dent's cropped up from time to time. She said Mr Dent had predicted a fall in Australian property prices in 2011, but that had never eventuated.


Ms O'Sullivan noted he was now predicting another property crash in Australia - of exactly the same amount as he had predicted for New Zealand.

"The key question to me is always, 'What would the trigger be for such a significant drop in property prices?'

"When we've got migration increasing, we've got economic growth increasing, and New Zealand continues to export a significant portion of its produce to developing parts of the world, as opposed to just the industrialised nations, I just don't see what would trigger such a collapse."

Ms O'Sullivan disagreed New Zealand's house prices were in a bubble. Outside of Auckland and Christchurch, prices had been "pretty static" for the past three or four years, she said.

She also questioned the link between China's property bubble and the New Zealand property market. "You can't shift Chinese property to Auckland."
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onetreehill1

中国的房地产不会垮的，最多1线城市不会涨，现在中国人口还在不断地增长，而且放开计划生育（允许独生子女生2胎），人口会更多，这么多人就需要更多的房子来居住

NewLynnHse

onetreehill1 发表于 2014-2-24 09:08
中国的房地产不会垮的，最多1线城市不会涨，现在中国人口还在不断地增长，而且放开计划生育（允许独生子女生 ...

那个expert也说了，就算中国崩盘，估计也很难影响这里的房事

完了，我还在等崩盘啊

nasi_chilli

NewLynnHse 发表于 2014-2-24 08:56
那个expert也说了，就算中国崩盘，估计也很难影响这里的房事

完了，我还在等崩盘啊

i just don't think it will collapse unless Australian banks get into trouble. 2007-2009 price went down to 20-25% only (and lots of mortgage auction). If China faced hard landing, Australian banks might be affected depending on how much Chinese banks securities they have. However, I strongly believe China could get back on track within 2-4 years if she got a hard landing. The GCD is holding high volume of gold reserve and cash. I am not sure about Australia.

In my opinion (that could be wrong), even Rangitoto/Mt Eden wake up, the price might adjust in 10-15% only ...for a year or two