Net immigration could hit 50,000: Report

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Net immigration could hit 50,000: ReportTuesday 22 July 2014

Annual net immigration could push 50,000 this year, BNZ’s economists say.

Booming migration is getting the blame for some of the pressure on house prices, particularly in Auckland.
The latest Statistics NZ data showed a 14% year-on-year increase in the number of permanent and long-term arrivals in the June year.

There were 100,800 recorded, the first time the 100,000 mark has been breached.

Migrant departures numbered 62,400 (down 22%). This resulted in a net gain of 38,300 migrants, the highest annual gain since the October 2003 year.

In the latest year, New Zealand had a net loss of 8300 migrants to Australia, well down from 31,200 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by India (7000), China (6300), and Britain (5500).

BNZ’s economists said net immigration could exceed Reserve Bank expectations.

“The June MPS, recall, had annual net immigration peaking at 37,000 this calendar year, subsiding to 23,000 next year and 15,000 in 2016. We believe it will be pushing 50,000 this year and will be slow to abate after that.”

But ASB's economists expect migration to slow over the next six months, as things improve for the Australian job market.

They expected it to peak at more than 42,000.

Lease

If this turns to be true, what will happen in property market?

vijay

buy buy buy

NewLynnHse

完了。。。上次预测4w1的时候有人都说不可能了，现在还变5w了？hohoho

肉肉妈

非常可怕的数据，LVR一放，房子要涨成什么样？！

kingscat

看来现在还是要买，来的人希望也促进租房市场一些先。。

onetreehill1

一般移民进来后会有一个过渡期，短者几个月，长者1-2年，过了这个时期，这些新移民将加入到买房大军中来，所以奥克兰房市好戏在后头，时间不用很长，大家到时看吧

最近注意到市场上多了很多印度买家在看房，确实印证了现在印度移民数量占第一的报道，我们华人买家要抓紧了，不要在现在房市看似平静甚至下降的季节里给阿三机会啊

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onetreehill1 发表于 2014-7-23 07:46
一般移民进来后会有一个过渡期，短者几个月，长者1-2年，过了这个时期，这些新移民将加入到买房大军中来，所 ...

让我们静候牛市第三波的到来。市场的规律是不会改变的。

onetreehill1

Lease 发表于 2014-7-23 08:13
让我们静候牛市第三波的到来。市场的规律是不会改变的。

牛市第三波一定会到来，只是时间问题，现在央行靠提高OCR已经失去打压房价的作用，就象现在提高OCR，汇率不升反跌就是这个意思

bungyjumping999

very similar to 2004.....

aniceguy

Lease 发表于 2014-7-23 08:13
让我们静候牛市第三波的到来。市场的规律是不会改变的。

楼主能解释一下前两波的时间和特征吗？
凶兆里包裹的前两波就算了哈

Lease

aniceguy 发表于 2014-7-25 20:47
楼主能解释一下前两波的时间和特征吗？
凶兆里包裹的前两波就算了哈

http://bbs.skykiwi.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2622448

吥噜

本地的房市周期是没问题的，关键是现在世界不太平，随时会发生某些势力蓄谋已久的大动荡事件引爆新一轮金融危机，所以本地房市会受多少影响真的很难说。

cizzzzk

吥噜 发表于 2014-7-26 22:33
本地的房市周期是没问题的，关键是现在世界不太平，随时会发生某些势力蓄谋已久的大动荡事件引爆新一轮金融 ...

小概率事件，如果世界真的不太平了，对新西兰好像利大于弊。二战过后一段时间，新西兰好像是最富裕的国家之一。