本帖最后由 LYYX 于 2014-8-27 07:54 编辑
OCR直到2016年没必要再调？这轮经济高峰期已过？
NZIER says the economic recovery is past its peak and higher interest rates won't be needed until 2016
New Zealand's economic recovery has passed its peak and the Reserve Bank should delay any further interest rate hikes until 2016, according to the NZ Institute of Economic Research. In its latest Quarterly Predictions report, NZIER said the pace of economic growth was slowing, and expected it to ease from 3.5% this year to 2.7% next year. Rising interest rates were starting to bite and that was showing up in falling house prices and waning economic confidence indicators. However a more gradual recovery would continue, NZIER said."While some parts of the economy are easing, there is also an underlying and gradual recovery underway. 70% of new jobs in Auckland While hiring was improving, 70% of the new jobs created since the pre-recession highs had been in Auckland and 20% were in Canterbury, leaving 10% spread thinly around the rest of the country. While job creation had surged in sectors like health and professional services, other sectors such as manufacturing were shedding workers. "The rather lumpy and wobbly recovery, both in terms of speed and composition, means that this recovery is still elusive to many industries and regions," NZIER said. "This in part explains why inflation is still subdued and is likely to remain that way for some time." Those trends suggested the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) should not raise interest rates again until 2016, NZIER said. "The RBNZ has paused to assess and should not raise interest rates again until there is convincing evidence of strong and sustained economic growth and rising inflation to well over 2.5%. 'We do not see that happening until early 2016." see :1)http://www.interest.co.nz/news/7 ... ont-be-needed-until 2)http://www.nzherald.co.nz/proper ... 8&objectid=11314651
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发表于 2014-8-27 08:53:45
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