汇率为啥跌了，要跌到多少呢？

auhomenz

最近RMB对NZD的汇率为啥跌了这么多，每次到5不就回升了么，跟大选有关？大家觉得还会跌到什么数呢？

auhomenz

同问

pzyc508

同问。。。感觉最多4.5吧？

Apclub

不是央行打压的吗？  新闻有报的    政府操控中呢

鹬鸵圣者

储蓄银行在管控呢，还会再降一些。如果要炒汇，一个月后买入纽币将是好机会。一个季度内肯定能从主要货币内收 15% 左右。

langyun

鹬鸵圣者 发表于 2014-9-29 21:26
储蓄银行在管控呢，还会再降一些。如果要炒汇，一个月后买入纽币将是好机会。一个季度内肯定能从主要货币内 ...

这位网友，汇率受很多因素影响的，谁也预测不了。你最多能说，在其他因素不变的前提下，一个季度内肯定能从主要货币内收 15% 左右。

如果这个季度内美国经济指标强势，又或者农产品价格大跌，又或者出现大规模旱情，你保证的15%就呵呵了。

鹬鸵圣者

langyun 发表于 2014-9-29 21:47
这位网友，汇率受很多因素影响的，谁也预测不了。你最多能说，在其他因素不变的前提下，一个季度内肯定能 ...

你的看法很保守。即便现在出手，一个季度后也有 10% 以上的利润。
我一定会做一点投资的。

孙艾伦

鹬鸵圣者 发表于 2014-9-29 22:02
你的看法很保守。即便现在出手，一个季度后也有 10% 以上的利润。
我一定会做一点投资的。

如果你要炒汇，现在还不是好时候，还稍微欠缺那么一点点，过几天你会吃惊的。

鹬鸵圣者

孙艾伦 发表于 2014-9-29 22:50
如果你要炒汇，现在还不是好时候，还稍微欠缺那么一点点，过几天你会吃惊的。

我完全同意你的看法。

IntegraR

能过4.5吗？

鹬鸵圣者

IntegraR 发表于 2014-9-29 23:15
能过4.5吗？

John Key 不都说了嘛，和美元走到 1：0.65 是理想。期待储蓄银行下一步的活动吧。

IntegraR

鹬鸵圣者 发表于 2014-9-29 23:33
John Key 不都说了嘛，和美元走到 1：0.65 是理想。期待储蓄银行下一步的活动吧。

、

heykidd

软妹币好坚挺

langyun

鹬鸵圣者 发表于 2014-9-29 22:02
你的看法很保守。即便现在出手，一个季度后也有 10% 以上的利润。
我一定会做一点投资的。

这不是保守不保守的问题。

15%的可能性当然有，但远没有你说的那样十拿九稳：
1）我前面提到的环境因素，尤其是美国的经济数据，随便一点变化都可以抵消这15%。

2）央行出手的时机。钮币过高已经好几年了，为什么央行选择这个时候出手？如果真如你说的那样钮币短期内就会反弹，那央行的打压岂不是毫无意义？央行会做无意义的事吗？ 不排除央行是看到了钮币下跌的趋势，顺势加把力，让钮币早点下跌。如果实情是这样的话，你说的15%机会就很小了。

3）市场的反应。按你说现在出手，一季度后也有 10% 以上的利润。这样简单的买出卖人，3个月就有10%回报，这是非常好的投资了，为什么炒家们还没出手？是他们联合一起等钮币再跌5%再出手，还是他们根本就看淡钮币？

归根结底，外汇市场没有稳赚15%的说法，利润总是和风险联系在一起的。

langyun

鹬鸵圣者 发表于 2014-9-29 23:33
John Key 不都说了嘛，和美元走到 1：0.65 是理想。期待储蓄银行下一步的活动吧。

这件事可不是John Key说了算的。

鹬鸵圣者

langyun 发表于 2014-9-30 18:54
这件事可不是John Key说了算的。

不要太低估 John Key 了。

aprilrock

langyun 发表于 2014-9-30 18:54
这件事可不是John Key说了算的。

但他肯定是主要影响因素之一

langyun

aprilrock 发表于 2014-10-1 16:55
但他肯定是主要影响因素之一

不是。他无权对央行的业务进行任何干预。

aprilrock

langyun 发表于 2014-10-1 16:57
不是。他无权对央行的业务进行任何干预。

你这真是，，，，，，，不知道说什么好。好吧，他无权。

langyun

aprilrock 发表于 2014-10-1 17:06
你这真是，，，，，，，不知道说什么好。好吧，他无权。

这是简单事实，你不信的话可以去大学问一下搞金融或经济的老师。

央行行长是 金融与经济特别委员会（由各政党代表组成）任命的，不必看总理面色。前几年有一次不记得是总理还是副总理评论了一下央行的利率，就被认为是干涉央行运作，让媒体反对党揪住不放，最后要发表声明解释。

aprilrock

langyun 发表于 2014-10-1 17:48
这是简单事实，你不信的话可以去大学问一下搞金融或经济的老师。

央行行长是 金融与经济特别委员会（由 ...

你看，我已经承认了你说的对，他无权。

aalleexx

跌了好啊，正好要换100块

Frank0000

good thing for international students lol~~

mandy138

等着东西涨价吧！这是要把新西兰人的生活水平砸到第三世界中去！

KaiWenZHAO

还要跌吗？ 跌多久？ 有请金融大师出没发言。。。

鹬鸵圣者

金价开始涨了，现在再不做兑换，就要升回去了。

爱国爱港

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/10557837/RBNZ-in-521m-currency-intervention

HAMISH RUTHERFORD
Last updated 16:29 29/09/2014

The New Zealand dollar has slumped US1 cent after the Reserve Bank revealed a currency intervention of more than half a billion dollars during August.

But the Prime Minister says the currency remains far above ‘‘Goldilocks’’ fair value level of about US65 cents.

The kiwi dropped from US78.3c to US77.3c late this afternoon after new figures were released showing the Reserve Bank sold $521m of its New Zealand dollar holdings in August, a massive jump from July when it sold only $2m.

Economists said the central bank had put its money where its mouth was. The Reserve Bank was ‘‘shorting’’ the dollar when it was high and when it was expected to fall and would be happy with the latest fall, economists said. The scale of the intervention was seen as ‘‘material’’ and involved the most selling of the New Zealand dollar since 2007.

However, while the currency has fallen heavily this month, down more than US6c, it only dropped about US2c during August when the central bank was actually selling.

The kiwi had already fallen earlier today after Prime Minister John Key, a former currency trader, said the dollar was too high and the "Goldilocks" level (not too high or too low) would be about US65c.

"I happen to actually support the view that the Governor has that the exchange rate is over valued, so if they have intervened, it would be a matter for them, but it would seem fairly logical," Key told reporters this afternoon.

"I think at the level we’re at, [US]78 odd cents, we’re still at very high levels."

Asked what the correct level would be, Key indicated it was much lower than it is today.

"In the end, the Goldilocks rate, not too high, not too low, just about right, I don’t know, [US]65 cents maybe, certainly ... lower than it is today," Key said.

"Just because I think that’s the rate that works for exporters doesn’t mean it’s the rate it’s going to get to."

The kiwi has been heading downhill since climbing above US88c in July.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said during a couple of months in 2007 the Reserve Bank sold about $2.2 billion, but in April last year its intervention was just $256m, seen as a moderate amount.

The amount sold in August this year was in between the two levels and was done without fanfare, so was seen as more passive than the sell down in 2007.

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The sale of New Zealand dollars last month sent a signal that the Reserve Bank saw the currency’s level as unsustainable, ASB said. It also helped push the currency down when it was also starting to retreat.

The aim was to make market players realise that a higher New Zealand dollar was ‘‘not a one-way bet’’.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said today’s release of figures confirmed that the central bank was willing to intervene when the dollar was seen as ‘‘unjustified and when market conditions are ripe for a successful intervention’’.

‘‘In that light, we wouldn’t be surprised to see further selling over following months, though there had been no rumours of such during September,’’ Stephens said.

Conditions were seen as opportune given that sentiment had turned sharply against commodity currencies and in favour of the US dollar.

Last week, Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler put out a surprise statement explaining again why he thought the dollar was ‘‘unsustainable and unjustified’’.

‘‘Now we know why,’’ TD Securities research head Annette Beacher said today.  The scale of the intervention showed the Reserve Bank’s greater conviction.

The New Zealand dollar also fell heavily against the Australian dollar, from A89.6c to A89.1c. ntsG


- The Dominion Post