今天的新闻，谈到澳洲 + 新西兰房产的相似性

love_3_month

有点意思啊，政府出钱找机构做的研究分析。

There was an equal balance of Australian and New Zealand cities to ensure that the results are not biased towards one country and the research was funded by New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment as part of its resilient futures programme.



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/proper ... 8&objectid=11613054

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2777962/MotuHousing.pdf

The dynamic structure of price adjustment, however, reveals a more differentiated pattern. There are three groupsof cities in terms of price dynamics:

- leaders (Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Canberra, Brisbane );
- followers (Perth,Hobart, Wellington, Auckland, Darwin); and
- laggards (Dunedin, Christchurch, Palmerston North, Hastings, Tauranga,Hamilton).

love_3_month

CONCLUSION
Our results demonstrate a weak form of a single housing market. This means that house prices in cities across Australasiawill diverge over time, but are influenced by the same long-term factors.

These differences may be caused by differences in house price responses to land prices, migration responses to houseprices or to land price responses to migration flows. The latter may reflect either geographical or planning constraints.These constraints may affect how much land is available and therefore how land prices respond to population flows (i.e.to migration).

Our findings also have implications for macroeconomic policy. We find little evidence that the countries’ independentmonetary and/or other macro-economic policies have been instrumental in determining long run real house priceoutcomes in either country. In interpreting this finding, recall that our focus is on real house prices, a relative pricevariable. The implication that monetary policy has been ineffective in controlling this relative price variable is consistentwith standard monetary theory, i.e. with the classical dichotomy.

NewLynnHse

没看懂。。。哈哈

love_3_month

NewLynnHse 发表于 2016-3-29 12:23
没看懂。。。哈哈

就是说，不管具体两国的政策有什么区别或者调整，两国的房产发展规律很相似，具体的供需因素差不多嘛。

每次涨跌，各个城市都有早有晚，奥克兰是第二梯队。。。。。

mwe23

这个research的结果可以用于炒房，每次看到第一leader cities的房价开始涨或者跌，要立刻对于第二，第三cities的房子就行买进或者卖出。

ThinkOutLoud

那么现在第一梯队是什么情况?

PS. Followers 里面的 Auckland 和 Wellington 差得远有点儿吧
plus, Laggards 里面怎么全是 NZ的cities?

NewLynnHse

love_3_month 发表于 2016-3-29 12:25
就是说，不管具体两国的政策有什么区别或者调整，两国的房产发展规律很相似，具体的供需因素差不多嘛。

...

哦，原来是这样。

BTW，你在留学生被打事件发表的意见被quote了。。。哈哈

http://imedu.skykiwi.com/liuxue/2016-03-28/216147.html

mimisa

可以分一线城市和二线城市，参照中国房市。。。。。。。。。。。。

love_3_month

NewLynnHse 发表于 2016-3-29 12:53
哦，原来是这样。

BTW，你在留学生被打事件发表的意见被quote了。。。哈哈

小编是我的粉丝吗