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标题: 天啊, 恆天然的股價像石頭一樣下跌，目前處於歷史低位。 [打印本页]

作者: 匿名 时间: 2019-7-4 17:34:08 标题: 天啊, 恆天然的股價像石頭一樣下跌，目前處於歷史低位。

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12246606

作者: 鬼武魂 时间: 2019-7-4 17:35:49

没钱看不到内容

作者: 火鸡蛋 时间: 2019-7-4 17:36:51

没钱有内容也没用

作者: auckland.clark 时间: 2019-7-4 17:38:37

还会跌的吧

作者: eurotour 时间: 2019-7-4 17:51:06

难道楼主是恒天然的大股东?

作者: 261874939 时间: 2019-7-4 18:24:36

可以去抄底了

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 18:31:19

最好倒闭，垄断，还特别黑。现在中国人要买他们的竞争对手了，哈哈！！！拿钱砸死它们！！！

作者: ericwu218 时间: 2019-7-4 20:18:32

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 17:31
最好倒闭，垄断，还特别黑。现在中国人要买他们的竞争对手了，哈哈！！！拿钱砸死它们！！！ ...

可别说伊利买westland那个事儿了，fb上本地人都炸窝了，各种中国威胁论，中国奴役新西兰论，反华移民论都出来了。再买下去新西兰也得像印尼一样排华了，倒霉的不还是已经移民过来的。

作者: Lease 时间: 2019-7-4 21:48:03

恒天然还会继续跌。

不谈别的，就拿估值来讲，它已经给出2019年的盈利指引：每股盈利10-15C，那么现价的预期市盈率为23-35倍，以这家公司拙劣的经营来看，给它15倍的估值最高了。因此股价应该跌到2.25以下才可以考虑买进。

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 21:51:25

ericwu218 发表于 2019-7-4 19:18
可别说伊利买westland那个事儿了，fb上本地人都炸窝了，各种中国威胁论，中国奴役新西兰论，反华移民论都 ...

本地人还有脸炸窝啊？炸个屁？westland就是被本地人管理垮的，本地人还有脸炸窝笑死人。你中国人为啥怕本地人炸锅，现在是westland自己的农夫投票赞成出售的，就是本地垃圾没本事管理才得卖的，如果本地人有本事，中国人根本有钱都买不到，我们应该感到自豪，不知道你在怕什么。。。哈哈！！！

作者: 柒夜之月 时间: 2019-7-4 21:58:59

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穷人连新闻都不配看了~~

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 21:59:34

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 20:51
本地人还有脸炸窝啊？炸个屁？westland就是被本地人管理垮的，本地人还有脸炸窝笑死人。你中国人为啥怕本 ...

The Chinese offer is too good to refuse. The farmers from Westland will have good Christmas than farmers from Fonterra.

The farmers from Fonterra will be thinking and should they move off from Fonterra and join Westland, since Westland pay better? and is run by the Chinese that pays good money.

Haha... reality bites, Fonterra is bullying the local farmers and set their own price (although is saying international market price), but look like the Chinese are paying the farmers better than Fonterra and they might prefer to supply their milk to Westland soon.

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 22:00:43

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-4 21:06 编辑

柒夜之月发表于 2019-7-4 20:58
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Fonterra's share price is sinking like a stone.

It's now 30 per cent lower than this time last year but reaction to the slump is as soft as the stock itself.

On Thursday alone the price of Fonterra shares and units in those shares on the NZX fell by 26c or 6.9 per cent to $3.49 in light trading. The fall took its market capitalisation to $5.6 billion, compared to $6.4 billion just one month ago on June 4.

Units in Fonterra shares listed in 2012 at $5.50, quickly jumping to $6.67. In May 2013 they hit $8. In the past month the price has fallen by more than 35c.

Chairman John Monaghan has been approached for comment. He is overseas.

Market analysts say the steady journey south is unsurprising given the embattled dairy company's forecast earnings downgrade in May and lack of progress announcements since it started a major restructure and strategy review under new leadership late last year.

And while Fonterra's farmer-owners are far from happy, they say the share price is not a measure of the company's value, which is in its assets.

Cambridge farmer-shareholder Garry Reymer said a bigger issue is falling land prices and low farmer confidence, despite firm primary produce prices.

"We are in a holding pattern and that is frustrating while we wait to see what they come up with. I'm not worried about the share price but I do want to know what they plan about strategy and capital structure. The two go together."

Harbour Asset Management senior research analyst Oyvinn Rimer said the share price was mapping earnings "quite well".

Two years ago analysts were expecting Fonterra to deliver 60c earnings per share, he said. Now earnings looked likely to be more like 14c per share, following revised forecast earnings per share of 10-15c from 15-25c in May.

"So there's been this enormous reduction in earnings expectations and that is the fundamental reason why the share price has drifted lower.

"People have had a really bad experience being in the shareholders' fund (FSF). There's never really been a great shareholder experience. Over time that has gotten worse and patience among remaining unit holders has worn out."

Rimer doubts there are any institutional investors still in the FSF.

Craigs Investment Partners head of wealth research Mark Lister said there is simply no catalyst for Fonterra shares to rise.

The price fall was the result of a combination of factors including a weaker full year earnings outlook and "all the issues" with Fonterra, he said.

"Too much debt, the cost structure is too high and there are still question marks over its cooperative structure and whether it delivers to all stakeholders."

Outsiders can buy dividend-carrying units in Fonterra's farmer-owned shares but they cannot vote on how the company is run.

Lister said the sale of New Zealand icecream maker Tip Top as part of an asset sale drive to address Fonterra's high debt could have also affected share price sentiment.

The company has pledged to reduce debt by $800 million this year. Last year it posted a first-ever full year loss - of $196m - and recorded debt of $1.6 billion.

"It probably talks to credibility. We'd all have liked them to own Tip Top. It's a good brand. You don't want to be selling good assets just to solve short term issues around too much debt."

Lister said the forecast earnings downgrade in May could have been Fonterra trying to lower expectations.

"But it points to a slower recovery in some of those key markets and costs are still looking a bit higher than they would probably like."

The rest of market, including other dairy sector companies, was doing well. Year to date while Fonterra's share price had fallen, the NZX50 had risen by 19 per cent.

"These other businesses are performing stronger and investors have many more options in this sector than they had in the past. The best thing you could have done as an investor over the last three or four years is ignore Fonterra completely and invest elsewhere."

Both Rimer and Lister noted a cooling in global dairy prices.

Rimer said it denoted a little more stability which could be of some benefit to Fonterra's cost base, milk payment to farmers being its biggest cost.

Lister said while easing global dairy prices were not an entirely bad thing for Fonterra, they did impact on investor sentiment.

Asked how much longer the share price might keep falling, Rimer said forecasting around Fonterra wasn't easy.

"I have followed this company long before the shareholder fund and forecasting ability is very tricky. There are so many moving parts and it's so big. You can get run over by something unforeseen.

"But ultimately the aim of the restructure is to simplify. Not so many moving parts makes it easier to manage."

Farmer advocate, the Fonterra Shareholders' Council, said the big concern wasn't the recent decline in the share price.

"It's the deterioration in the last 18 months from $6," said chairman Duncan Coull.

There was a "very real distinction" between the share price as it affected farmers and unit holders, he said. For farmers it established the value of their investment in the cooperative and its decline would be affecting farmer borrowing ability, he said.

"That's a real concern. It's probably having more of a material effect on-farm than it is on Fonterra in terms of the value of the assets we hold and secure against."

The share price reflected "where the co-op is right now and the confidence going forward given the strategy refresh and the lack of visibility and transparency over future earnings".

"Until such time as the board and management come out in September with a new strategy and confidence builds around that to build sustainable returns, I don't see the share price shifting too much."

The council, which represents Fonterra's 10,000-or so farmers, reported $1.5 billion was written off farmer balance sheets in the 2018 financial year - the effect of a 27 per cent fall in the share price and a constrained dividend.

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 22:09:42

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-4 21:13 编辑

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 20:51
本地人还有脸炸窝啊？炸个屁？westland就是被本地人管理垮的，本地人还有脸炸窝笑死人。你中国人为啥怕本 ...

Westland Farmers will have better Christmas than Fonterra Farmers this year.

Fonterra Farmers can have a choice to join Westland, maybe that is the reason the dump the shares and might join Westland for better milk price, you never know.

Westland has a big market and has the Chinese government support, that will make Fonterra very scare.
Although Fonterra is saying the milk price is based on international market price, the Chinese is able to give Westland farmers far better price than Fonterra, that will stir up Farmers to shift their loyalty from Fonterra to Chinese controlled Westland.

I will see how the government will react to this issue.

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 22:14:43

bungyjumping999 发表于 2019-7-4 21:00
Fonterra's share price is sinking like a stone.It's now 30 per cent lower than this time last year ...

what happened mate? why are your replies to my post disappearing? haha

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 22:15:17

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 21:14
what happened mate? why are your replies to my post disappearing? haha

i think we are under government watch. i saw it disappearing twice, after long writing.

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 22:15:56

bungyjumping999 发表于 2019-7-4 21:15
i think we are under government watch.

so funny, it's like someone is doing something sneaky in the background...haha!!! your posts disappeared twice!

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 22:17:07

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 21:15
so funny, it's like someone is doing something sneaky in the background...haha!!! your posts disap ...

Yes, Twice, i thought i press wrongly. then i rewrite is gone again.

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 22:17:19

bungyjumping999 发表于 2019-7-4 21:15
i think we are under government watch. i saw it disappearing twice, after long writing.

you want to try again? let's see whether it's gonna happen for the 3rd time, then we can share a lotto ticket this weekend...haha!!!

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 22:25:07

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-4 21:28 编辑

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 21:17
you want to try again? let's see whether it's gonna happen for the 3rd time, then we can share a l ...

Westland farmers will have better Christmas than Fonterra Farmers.

The Chinese are paying good money to the Westland farmers and many Fonterra farmers will be tempted to join the Westland and that could be the reason they are dumping Fonterra share.

Although Fonterra is saying they are paying international market price to the farmers, but the Chinese are paying a far better price to Westland Farmers. This is going to cause rivalry and when reality bites, many Fonterra farmers might shift to Westland.

I am yet to see how the government will react to this issue. This is significant and has national interest. If Westland can control and shift the farmers to their control and support, it is going to end badly for Fonterra.

[i have rewritten and taken off some sensitive words, I think there is something sneaky]

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 22:27:58

bungyjumping999 发表于 2019-7-4 21:25
Westland farmers will have better Christmas than Fonterra Farmers.

The Chinese are paying good m ...

OMG，can't believe this is happening...haha, don't think they dare to delete again since we have noticed it...haha!!!

作者: ericwu218 时间: 2019-7-4 22:29:44

鼠星人发表于 2019-7-4 20:51
本地人还有脸炸窝啊？炸个屁？westland就是被本地人管理垮的，本地人还有脸炸窝笑死人。你中国人为啥怕本 ...

主要人家根本不认为是他们自己的问题呀，一堆人说什么哎呀中国又来了要买了整个新西兰，一会儿又说哎呀我们都要变中国人奴隶了。。。明明是伊利接了一个烂摊子好嘛。。。
主要怕这个风气起了，屎盆子不都扣本地华人移民头上，跟那个chinese sounding name似的

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 22:32:12

ericwu218 发表于 2019-7-4 21:29
主要人家根本不认为是他们自己的问题呀，一堆人说什么哎呀中国又来了要买了整个新西兰，一会儿又说哎呀我 ...

那些是脑残的少数人，连农夫都比他们又脑子，知道这公司不卖就死定了。。。哈哈！！！

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-4 22:39:53

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-4 22:02 编辑

If Chinese is going to prepare for a trade war, this is going to be a strategy they need to prepare for. A take over on a local significant company and stir up their supports from the rest of the farmers. Give them good prices better than Fonterra.

Rather than negotiating the price from Fonterra, the Chinese target directly on NZ farmers. Farmers are the discontented group due to falling farm prices, it doesn't take much to stir them up and to shift them to Westland.

Will the NZ government block the Sale under the Overseas Investment Act? haha... a sensitive question and is a provocateur.

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-4 22:42:07

bungyjumping999 发表于 2019-7-4 21:39
If Chinese is going to prepare for a trade war, this is going to be a strategy they need to prepare ...

ultimately Fonterra only have themselves to blame, monopoly and complacent, the farmers had no other choices, but now they have...haha

作者: 图帝@-@ 时间: 2019-7-4 22:55:23

樓上的欺負我不會蠅文!

作者: sky-horse 时间: 2019-7-4 23:48:00

图帝@-@ 发表于 2019-7-4 21:55
樓上的欺負我不會蠅文!

你不是挺懂吗?

作者: sky-horse 时间: 2019-7-4 23:50:59

TMD A2 Milk 涨到天了，能让天朝的军舰在澳洲整箱整箱的抱，确实挺厉害的，短短3年时间翻了20倍有余。

作者: 匿名 时间: 2019-7-5 02:16:47

Fonterra 就是傻子，不懂营销就请专业的人来嘛，你看看人家A2，产品单一但是在收益，股价上都不是一个服的玩家。

作者: 鼠星人 时间: 2019-7-5 08:11:43

图帝@-@ 发表于 2019-7-4 21:55
樓上的欺負我不會蠅文!

严肃点啊图帝，我们在讨论一个很严重的问题。坛子里的帖子会人间蒸发的。。。我亲眼看到的。。。哈哈，可能是太敏感的话题吧？

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-5 10:30:40

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-5 09:33 编辑

匿名者发表于 2019-7-5 01:16
Fonterra 就是傻子，不懂营销就请专业的人来嘛，你看看人家A2，产品单一但是在收益，股价上都不是一个服的 ...

This is due to the so-called scientific research "breakthrough" and many Chinese users buy into it - ie "can make your child more intelligent by drinking this type of milk".
China is a big market and they trust the NZ brand, the company blossom.

作者: 呼啸寒风 时间: 2019-7-5 10:57:20

新西兰这些岛民脑子能管好跨国公司才是见了鬼，co-op这种结构根本已经过时，如果不是超市市场只有foodstuffs和progressive两家垄断，foodstuffs的co-op也早就垮了，现在只要人口多，外资进来打破竞争，物价就能降下来，新西兰该倒闭的落后公司实在太多

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-5 11:43:31

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-5 11:04 编辑

Fonterra is relevant in international Marketing. If NZ milk is to compete with Nestle and some international brands, it needs a nationalistic company supported by the NZ government to do its branding and reach out to international level, hence the birth of Fonterra to compete internationally.

The idea is farmers produce the raw milk, Fonterra will support by getting the milk from farmers, set the price, do the marketing research, find the international markets and be innovative etc.

It is a monopoly concerted efforts to compete internationally and is a creative way to save NZ farmers from market volatility. Fonterra is relevant and to be applauded for their efforts over the years.

There comes a time, this organisation is facing domestic fractions from farmers.
Their very own Farmers are facing tough financial strength in maintaining their own farms, lacking innovation, lacking labours, their children are not willing to take on the businesses and many are considering selling their farms due to ageing etc, debt levels, and declining farm prices are all adding pressure on them.

NZ was lucky in the 2008 financial crisis, the milk price was like white gold. When the gold dust settles, this is the reality, Fonterra has to face.

How would the impact on Chinese taking over the competitor business (Westland) affecting the farmers' psychology is yet to be seen.

How would the government see this take over and will they block it? This continues to be a provocateur question to the government.

作者: seakiwi 时间: 2019-7-5 12:16:20

auckland.clark 发表于 2019-7-4 16:38
还会跌的吧

可以入手的时候吆喝一声

谢谢

作者: auckland.clark 时间: 2019-7-5 12:35:48

seakiwi 发表于 2019-7-5 11:16
可以入手的时候吆喝一声

谢谢

抱歉，我没有关注这个。

作者: 豆腐教徒 时间: 2019-7-5 12:40:30

auckland.clark 发表于 2019-7-5 11:35
抱歉，我没有关注这个。

昨晚这个帖子里发生很玄的事，有人回我的帖子，回帖突然人间蒸发，销声匿迹的那种，回了好像没有回。而且是两次。。。哈哈

作者: auckland.clark 时间: 2019-7-5 12:45:30

豆腐教徒发表于 2019-7-5 11:40
昨晚这个帖子里发生很玄的事，有人回我的帖子，回帖突然人间蒸发，销声匿迹的那种，回了好像没有回。而且 ...

老鼠，这个帖子你回岔了吧？

作者: 豆腐教徒 时间: 2019-7-5 12:48:24

auckland.clark 发表于 2019-7-5 11:45
老鼠，这个帖子你回岔了吧？

就是这个，讨论的是fonterra。是不是太敏感？还是第一次出现帖子人间蒸发的。。。哈哈

作者: auckland.clark 时间: 2019-7-5 12:50:42

sky-horse 发表于 2019-7-4 22:50
TMD A2 Milk 涨到天了，能让天朝的军舰在澳洲整箱整箱的抱，确实挺厉害的，短短3年时间翻了20倍有余。 ...

依靠单一市场的股票，适合赌，不适合投资。

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2019-7-5 12:59:08

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2019-7-5 12:00 编辑

NZ shares are allocated to the farmers ONLY based on their milk supply

The one traded in NZX is Fonterra Shareholders fund (FSF). haha....

作者: Lease 时间: 2019-7-5 13:24:25

auckland.clark 发表于 2019-7-5 11:50
依靠单一市场的股票，适合赌，不适合投资。

A2 Milk其实并非只靠中国市场，它首先在澳洲发家，后来进军中国做的不错，现在在美国也发展的可以。

A2 产品的卖点是它的独特性：牛奶里只含A2，更容易消化。并且它是全世界纯粹只生产A2产品的公司。

作者: bluekiwisky 时间: 2019-7-5 13:57:19

没钱，LZ给放上来

作者: 匿名 时间: 2019-7-5 14:42:49

看过中国股市下跌的都表示这根本不算什么

作者: 匿名 时间: 2019-7-5 14:46:45

bluekiwisky 发表于 2019-7-5 12:57
没钱，LZ给放上来

See at Nos.13

作者: 匿名 时间: 2019-7-5 14:51:45

没什么.反正不吃奶粉

作者: sky-horse 时间: 2019-7-6 15:02:36

auckland.clark 发表于 2019-7-5 11:50
依靠单一市场的股票，适合赌，不适合投资。

豪哥果然是股市弄潮儿，华尔街精英。。。。。。说得非常好

作者: lessly-joo 时间: 2019-7-6 19:59:05

请教各位，在ASB买了股票，但未见分红入账户，何解？

作者: Kazama 时间: 2019-7-6 21:56:02

恒天然应该考虑回去过去三头鼎立的时候, 检哨营运成本, 放开不营利的资产才有机会生存...

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