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标题: 哈哈哈工党果然不是搞经济的，被经济学家批了吧 [打印本页]

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2017-10-28 20:40:47 标题: 哈哈哈工党果然不是搞经济的，被经济学家批了吧

On Wednesday afternoon the incoming Housing Minister Phil Twyford gave some details on how the KiwiBuild programme of supplying 10,000 affordable homes to the market per annum will work. While there will be attempts to form partnerships with existing large-scale builders to construct dwellings the government would also look to secure dwellings already planned to be built in some subdivisions such as Hobsonville. And they would buy off the plan perhaps 30% - 40% of apartments from future developments planned by developers of large residential complexes. That is a boost in demand, not supply. The KiwiBuild net construction boost is not going to be 10,000 p.a.

政府说，我们来造，各种方式造，增加“供给”，包括买一些off the plan的——但是，这其实是在增加“需求”，根本没有增加供应量啊，因为别人本来就要造的，卖给你政府之后，市场上还是那么多新房，但是你一买，就算你那10万套政绩的一部分啦？太搞笑了。。。。

作者: 鸢芷清 时间: 2017-10-28 20:46:03

对呀
老皮不是一上台
就马上甩锅咯

作者: auckland.clark 时间: 2017-10-28 20:48:32

正常啊，房子换个说法就是政府的业绩了。

作者: 119900 时间: 2017-10-28 20:53:26

就这死样子。。。

作者: ETA_Wai 时间: 2017-10-28 20:54:10

不用搞经济吖，人权最重要，成为世界上第一经济体系又怎么样如果家里的人连住的房子都没有。那样的经济叫做劳力输出

作者: 爱国爱港 时间: 2017-10-28 21:14:20

重点是不少纽西兰人不懂经济，看啊登有点sex appeal就相信她的bull shit

作者: basite 时间: 2017-10-28 21:31:25

哪个国家的经济学家都很明白，可惜就是当不上总理，只能当喷子。

作者: 狂奔的蜗牛!!! 时间: 2017-10-28 22:11:14

现在下结论还是太早了，等三年后再看看吧。

作者: 太极宗师001 时间: 2017-10-28 22:30:08

爱国爱港发表于 2017-10-28 22:14
重点是不少纽西兰人不懂经济，看啊登有点sex appeal就相信她的bull shit

sex appeal？？？

作者: prismhou 时间: 2017-10-28 22:30:43

上台的未必不懂经济，但是她们肯定有认为更重要的事

作者: 爱国爱港 时间: 2017-10-28 22:36:49

太极宗师001 发表于 2017-10-28 23:30
sex appeal？？？

纽西兰搞政治要sex appeal的

作者: 太极宗师001 时间: 2017-10-28 22:38:06

爱国爱港发表于 2017-10-28 23:36
纽西兰搞政治要sex appeal的

我是说我没看到sex appeal，
我只看到horror movie

作者: 爱国爱港 时间: 2017-10-28 22:50:51

太极宗师001 发表于 2017-10-28 23:38
我是说我没看到sex appeal，
我只看到horror movie

随了改变自己去适应新环境，我没有其它建议

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2017-10-29 08:00:04

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2017-10-29 09:31 编辑

There is a rationale for this...

Government purchase in bulk and able to guarantee it will be built rather than obtaining consent and not building by private developers. ( on that basis, number will increase rather than statistical figures).

High chance is government will set up a "government developer" ( eg name: Kiwi CORP) to develop the land and housing projects... haha, another bureaucracy in the making. This development company will likely make loses and heavily subsidised by taxpayers or in Few years time it will be bailout by taxpayers fund ( eg superfund)

Few private companies (small and uncompetitive companies) will go underbelly because of government intervention in this process.
If the Government is creative enough ( and want to avoid loses), they will ask for private investment (by way of shares) to the eg Kiwi Corp, and let Overseas development companies to join as shareholders to develop bigger projects rather than just fletcher buildings, Winston can go and talk to chinese companies in china/ hong kong for similar co-operations. In no time, Auckland will have the bones and structure of Melbourne.....
The influx and increase in supply will dilute sausage/ tofu houses and prices and enough to burn some late followers.... that will satisfy phil T's aim of bringing social justice to local first home buyers. another haha...

In the first 3 years, the labour government has to show it is working to get them into the next term... They will show plans and don't talk about results and delivery, 6 years later, Let National and taxpayers to clean up the mess ( if it doesn't work)

Heha...

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2017-10-29 08:35:18

bungyjumping999 发表于 2017-10-29 09:00
There is a rationale for this...

Government purchase in bulk and able to guarantee it will be built ...

如果开发商够精的话，必须后来涨价，政府为了面子和承诺肯定不会毁约，趁机大捞一笔。拭目以待，政府肯定是最后的冤大头，被狠狠砍一大刀，纳税人来擦屁股。。。哈哈

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2017-10-29 09:01:22

bungyjumping999 发表于 2017-10-29 09:00
There is a rationale for this...

Government purchase in bulk and able to guarantee it will be built ...

确实，有的房子本来可能会黄了，有了政府购买，建成可能大大提高

但也只是提高啊，本来说造10个，黄了3个。现在造10个政府购买，都完工啦，就只能算多了3个，但政府说我买了10个啊，所以提高了十个供应

另外政府购买，就压制了其他人的购买，这可是10个的完全增加啊。因为政府是买了给中低收入的，不满足条件的只能去其他地方买更贵的了。。。。

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2017-10-29 09:37:02

bungyjumping999 发表于 2017-10-29 09:00
There is a rationale for this...

Government purchase in bulk and able to guarantee it will be built ...

如果政府自己搞开发，肯定烂摊子收场。商业开发商起码还有声誉要维持，政府自己盖的肯定以后会有很多问题，肯定漏水，什么钢材不合格，水泥不合格，几年后都会浮现。。。不过，等这些问题浮出表面的时候，台上站着的，可能是国家党。。。哈哈

作者: clam 时间: 2017-10-29 11:24:59

NewLynnHse 发表于 2017-10-29 10:37
如果政府自己搞开发，肯定烂摊子收场。商业开发商起码还有声誉要维持，政府自己盖的肯定以后会有很多问题 ...

10k new houses per year, can't imagine what sort of quality you can get ..

作者: Turtle2017 时间: 2017-10-29 11:29:42

有新闻连接吗?

作者: auckland.clark 时间: 2017-10-29 11:42:03

love_3_month 发表于 2017-10-29 10:01
确实，有的房子本来可能会黄了，有了政府购买，建成可能大大提高

但也只是提高啊，本来说造10个，黄了3 ...

政府变成大买家了。

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2017-10-29 12:25:06

Turtle2017 发表于 2017-10-29 12:29
有新闻连接吗?

不是新闻

http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-co ... October-26-2017.pdf

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2017-10-29 13:42:50

NewLynnHse 发表于 2017-10-29 13:25
不是新闻

http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WO-October-26-2017.pdf

我挺喜欢他的文章的，思路清晰的很。。。。如果没有时间追各种经济新闻，看他的点评可以省很多时间

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2017-10-29 13:53:13

love_3_month 发表于 2017-10-29 14:42
我挺喜欢他的文章的，思路清晰的很。。。。如果没有时间追各种经济新闻，看他的点评可以省很多时间 ...

其实这些都不重要，新西兰的经济是世界局势支配的，只要没有全世界的经济危机，就很难崩盘。。。哈哈

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2017-10-29 14:23:42

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2017-10-29 15:26 编辑

Another possibility is unlocking further land and creating some suburbs similar to Hobsonville but further off and away ( enough for few thousand of houses a year). The development will be undertaken by government nominee ( eg name kiwi corp type of company) where the labour government has full control and subsidising the costs of construction and able to sell at the range of $550k hence satisfying their election promises.

Few things they need to do:
1) reform resource management Act.
2) deregulate building products and increase the competitiveness of building products, that will send Fletcher buildings and similar companies share prices going south.
3) forming government-owned development company ( Statutory based similar to housing NZ type) to do development and construction.
4) Winton to negotiate with Chinese companies based in China/Hongkong to undertake bigger projects underwritten by government's kiwi corp. Incentives include joint ventures and shareholdings in Kiwi Corp.

If they make it, it will bring about " Change", if not the change the new government talked about is more or less superficial.

haha...

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2017-10-29 14:35:27

bungyjumping999 发表于 2017-10-29 15:23
Another possibility is unlocking further land and creating some suburbs similar to Hobsonville but f ...

haha.....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new ... p;objectid=11937945

South Auckland satellite city gives Government room to expand

The Government is interested in a plan to build a new satellite city in South Auckland capable of eventually housing 500,000 people.

Housing Minister Phil Twyford told the Herald today he is very interested in work being done by Infrastructure New Zealand for a satellite city centred round the small settlement of Paerata where Wesley College is situated, just north of Pukekohe.

Infrastructure New Zealand chief executive Stephen Selwood said the city could eventually extend northwest to Karaka and across the Pahurehure Inlet to Weymouth.

A discussion document from Infrastructure New Zealand says land around the rail line at Paerata could initially add 30,000 homes on unzoned land priced for $450,000.

.............

Why Paerata?

Close to industrial land at Drury

Close to employment centres at Manukau and Auckland Airport

Close to Waikato and Bay of Plenty growth areas

Water, power and aggregate supplies comes from the south

Located on a rail line

Tens of thousands of homes within 30 minutes of downtown Auckland

Houses could be built for $450,000

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2017-10-29 16:11:21

NewLynnHse 发表于 2017-10-29 15:35
haha.....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11937945

整个西区或者南区有没有50万户人啊。。。造一个卫星城是不错，配套设施比如学校医院购物娱乐场所不知道要多久。火车倒是好解决，然后起点站就满员了。。。。

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2017-10-29 16:20:18

love_3_month 发表于 2017-10-29 17:11
整个西区或者南区有没有50万户人啊。。。造一个卫星城是不错，配套设施比如学校医院购物娱乐场所不知道要 ...

他们的承诺的缺点都慢慢出来了。。。哈哈

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