We expect the next NZ monetary policy change to
be a tightening but that time is on the RB’s side
and they won’t move until near the middle of next
year. This morning’s December quarter GDP
growth of 0.4% was weaker than the markets
were expecting and followed 0.8% growth in the
September quarter which was revised down from
1.1%.
But the NZ economy grew by 3% over all of 2016
and the underlying rate looks to be about that. So
while some people still think they might ease
again we don’t think the case is made for that.
Thus borrowers should budget for floating rates
rising perhaps 2% from about the middle of 2018
through to the end of 2019. Run a 3% rise
scenario just in case inflation finally surprises on
the upside overseas and here.
Were I borrowing at the moment I would still look
to take a mixture of floating and three year fixed
rates. Fixed rates could continue to creep up
without any change in the official cash rate, as
has been the case since they started rising in
November last year.
If I Were An Investor ...I’d see a BNZ Private
Banker 作者: markrey 时间: 2017-3-17 10:30:37