标题: ZT: Shamubeel Eaqub says any downturn in Auckland housing market will be shortli [打印本页] 作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2016-1-18 10:15:24 标题: ZT: Shamubeel Eaqub says any downturn in Auckland housing market will be shortli
Shamubeel Eaqub says there could be a modest correction in Auckland house prices but a potentially major downturn in Christchurch and Chinese investors won't be coming back
conomist Shamubeel Eaqub thinks Christchurch will have a major effect on the housing market this year but not in a good way.
"I think Canterbury will be one out of the box this year in terms of the negative side of things," he said
"It will move into oversupply this year in quite a big way."
And that will have what he called "a significant impact on prices" in the region.
"I think you'll be getting [housing] price-to-income ratios similar to where they were prior to the earthquakes.
"That's quite a big number, but it will happen over time rather than as a short, sharp correction.
"We'll see that continue for the next 12-24 months."
He also sees the economic benefits that have flowed from the rebuilding of Christchurch starting to tail off in a big way, putting further pressure on the economy.
Up in Auckland he believes prices could drop by around 5% this year but any correction would be short lived because it would encourage more first home buyers back into the market and the supply of homes will remain tight.
"That underlying supply and demand imbalance is not going to go away any time soon," he said.