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标题: 哇，TA说利率两年内不会涨而且还有可能再跌 [打印本页]

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2016-1-8 11:24:59 标题: 哇，TA说利率两年内不会涨而且还有可能再跌

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/bu ... t-2-point-5-percent

BNZ Bank's chief economist Tony Alexander expects the Official Cash Rate to stay the same for at least two years, he says.
In his latest market report, Mr Alexander said he expected the Reserve Bank to keep the rate at 2.5 percent until 2018.

But the bank would be cautious because of excess production worldwide, especially in China, Mr Alexander said.
"A few too many factories, one could say, over there, and there also appears to be a wee bit too much oil sloshing around the world, excess production of coal, iron ore etc, so global inflation is also being kept low because of that."
However, it would open the door to another rate cut if the Chinese market were to deteriorate further, Mr Alexander said.

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2016-1-8 11:27:49

空军们得再等等了

作者: monday410 时间: 2016-1-8 11:32:45

好消息？？

作者: 119900 时间: 2016-1-8 11:50:45

坐等看结果。。。

作者: Lease 时间: 2016-1-8 11:52:36

没错，今天Herald也有相似的观点。

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/busine ... p;objectid=11570646。

Oil prices have hit a new 11-year low, adding weight to calls for more cuts in the Reserve Bank's official cash rate and casting doubt on the future direction of commodities markets.

While most commercial banks expect the official cash rate to form a base at 2.5 per cent, both ASB Bank and Westpac expect to see two more cuts, which would see the rate at 2 per cent.

Oil is one of the key inputs for the CPI.

"And the environment that we are in, the outlook for inflation is benign, and that's one of the reasons why we see the Reserve Bank cutting the official cash rate to 2 per cent," said Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface. "Weaker oil prices - depending on what's a happening with the New Zealand dollar - tends to put downward pressure on inflation," she said.

ASB & Westpac都认为OCR还要降，再加上现在BNZ的首席经济师也这样认为。 5大银行里有3家都持同样的观点。

作者: 后文车妖 时间: 2016-1-8 12:03:07

OCR降代表房贷利率会降？以前这么说没什么大问题，现在这么讲开什么玩笑。信不信很快房贷利率就涨上来了。OCR调整以后也不会看通胀数据了。

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2016-1-8 12:12:14

后文车妖发表于 2016-1-8 12:03
OCR降代表房贷利率会降？以前这么说没什么大问题，现在这么讲开什么玩笑。信不信很快房贷利率就涨上来了。O ...

就象你说的，投资者利率会单独出来，那就有好戏看了

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2016-1-8 12:28:06

CUT不CUT，不如强制石油公司降油价， 33美元什么概念。1.4-1.5/L，这些新西兰的石油公司在搞什么？？？

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2016-1-8 12:37:11

后文车妖发表于 2016-1-8 12:03
OCR降代表房贷利率会降？以前这么说没什么大问题，现在这么讲开什么玩笑。信不信很快房贷利率就涨上来了。O ...

那我就不知道了，我的头脑比较简单，只知道到目前为止房贷利率和OCR是有直接的关系的。以后会怎样我没什么兴趣去预测。

作者: johnz79 时间: 2016-1-8 12:38:08

剑客浪心发表于 2016-1-8 12:28
CUT不CUT，不如强制石油公司降油价， 33美元什么概念。1.4-1.5/L，这些新西兰的石油公司在搞什么？？？ ...

别忘记政府加税了，不然现在油价应该在1刀的水平

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2016-1-8 12:41:34

如何投诉石油公司垄断油价，在国际石油价格大幅度下跌的情况下，联合抵制竞争，实行价格操纵

http://www.comcom.govt.nz/the-co ... ine-complaint-form/

大家快去投诉啊，我已经投诉了。

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2016-1-8 13:30:19

johnz79 发表于 2016-1-8 12:38
别忘记政府加税了，不然现在油价应该在1刀的水平

问题现在1.8 多。。。。。。好嚣张

作者: 后文车妖 时间: 2016-1-8 14:40:49

剑客浪心发表于 2016-1-8 12:28
CUT不CUT，不如强制石油公司降油价， 33美元什么概念。1.4-1.5/L，这些新西兰的石油公司在搞什么？？？ ...

石油公司哪里有什么利润，现在惨兮兮的。

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2016-1-8 15:04:31

后文车妖发表于 2016-1-8 14:40
石油公司哪里有什么利润，现在惨兮兮的。

2014年石油价格110USD跌到33USD。跌幅70%。

新西兰油价跌了多少，虽然汇率跌了一些。尤其是最近三个月，根本就是不跌！

作者: 取暖基本靠抖 时间: 2016-1-8 21:50:15

后文车妖发表于 2016-1-8 14:40
石油公司哪里有什么利润，现在惨兮兮的。

啊？那以前原油价格高的时候油公司都在赔钱？

作者: 火凤燎原 时间: 2016-1-9 00:58:42

银行的钱不单单只是从央行手里借的，还有一部分来自海外，美联储加息银行贷款成本增加利息还是往上涨。中东现在这么乱谁知道什么时候开打，一打美联储再加息，全世界的资金基本上都会流入美国。我觉得银行利息会涨，OCR如果不变那只能说利息涨的没有那么快而已。

作者: 小马虎 时间: 2016-1-9 17:22:31

说实在的，现在国际上没什么好的消息，不是打仗，就是股市暴跌，油价下跌，isis恐怖组织之类的，感觉经济不好，利息走入上升通道吗？

作者: occc 时间: 2016-1-9 17:58:00

小马虎发表于 2016-1-9 17:22
说实在的，现在国际上没什么好的消息，不是打仗，就是股市暴跌，油价下跌，isis恐怖组织之类的，感觉经济不 ...

美国消息不错啊，昨晚非农数据远超预期

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2016-1-9 20:19:41

小马虎发表于 2016-1-9 17:22
说实在的，现在国际上没什么好的消息，不是打仗，就是股市暴跌，油价下跌，isis恐怖组织之类的，感觉经济不 ...

哈哈，什么时候没有恐怖组织？有美国在的一天就会有恐怖组织，因为那是美国自导自演的。

作者: 狂奔的蜗牛!!! 时间: 2016-1-9 22:28:15

剑客浪心发表于 2016-1-8 15:04
2014年石油价格110USD跌到33USD。跌幅70%。

新西兰油价跌了多少，虽然汇率跌了一些。尤其是最近三个月 ...

Fuel Pricing
Breaking down the cost of fuelling up
Want to know why your tank of fuel costs what it does? Here’s the lowdown.

The cost of fuel at the pump is made up of four parts.

1. What we pay
We buy crude oil as well as refined petrol and diesel. The amount we pay is made up of:

the cost of petrol and diesel on the international market
the cost to ship fuel to New Zealand
Like the rest of the world, we buy fuel in United States dollars (USD). So the price we actually pay for each barrel of oil also depends on how strong the New Zealand dollar (NZD) is against the USD.

2. Government taxes & levies
A good chunk of the cost of each litre of fuel you buy is made up of Government taxes and levies. This includes GST, excise tax, ACC and emissions trading levies for petrol, and monitoring and emissions trading levies for diesel. At the moment, 67.13 cents per litre is collected by the government in fixed excise (excluding GST). In addition, a GST of 15% is collected on the overall price of fuel.

3. Operating costs
Our operating costs include staff wages, the stuff we use to bring fuel to you like shipping, storage tanks and trucks, electricity, credit card fees and all the other things we need to run our business.

4. Our net profit
After we’ve paid for fuel, taxes and levies and accounted for our operating costs, we earn a net profit of about 4-6 cents per litre across our network. You don’t just have to take our word for it – we’re a publicly listed company so it’s easy to find out how much money we are making by visiting our Investor Centre.

作者: paulwood 时间: 2016-1-11 13:07:35

当经济学家都认为房贷利率会降时，房贷利率就该涨了。

作者: Paper_Man 时间: 2016-1-11 13:26:05

paulwood 发表于 2016-1-11 12:07
当经济学家都认为房贷利率会降时，房贷利率就该涨了。

还真是这样，哈哈

作者: 兔宝宝快快长大 时间: 2016-1-12 23:39:36

paulwood 发表于 2016-1-11 12:07
当经济学家都认为房贷利率会降时，房贷利率就该涨了。

还真是涨了呢。。。。

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