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标题: First NZ analysts see 'increased risk of sharp correction' [打印本页]

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2015-11-26 09:43:00 标题: First NZ analysts see 'increased risk of sharp correction'

http://www.interest.co.nz/proper ... ices-may-fall-about

The New Zealand housing market may now be overvalued by as much as 40%, with an increasing risk of a sharp correction in prices, according to finance house First NZ Capital.

First NZ director of economics and strategy Chris Green in a comprehensive NZ House Prices Strategy Update has gone back years through house pricing data and come up with three potential scenarios on the future direction of house prices - with the "medium scenario" suggesting a possible 11% drop in prices over a period of about two-and-a-half years up to June 2018.

Green said that "despite the popular perception that the NZ house prices continuously increase" there have been six episodes of declining real annual house prices since the March 1970 quarter, as the graph below shows.

firstnz3.png

"In modelling NZ house price scenarios, we have used as a guide the historical cycles in quarterly real house prices going back to the March 1970 quarter.

"As a starting point, we assess that given the recent rapid acceleration in NZ house price growth, the elevated starting point for NZ house prices, together with the broad range of metrics suggesting reasonably substantial (30-40%) overvaluation, then the housing market risk assessment is skewed towards the downside. Against this backdrop, we have prepared three house price scenarios; a high, medium and low."

The next two graphs below (Figure 59 and 60) highlight the projected impact of these scenarios.

firstnz6.png

"Under the medium term house price scenario, we attempt to take some account of the currently assessed overvalued characteristics of the NZ housing market," he said.

"As a guide to the likely duration and magnitude of a potential housing market correction, we have looked at past cycles of housing market downturns. From this analysis we have observed that the average and median duration of a downturn has been in the order of 9-11 quarters in length. As such, we have assumed a downturn duration consistent with the middle of this range of 10 quarters from peak to trough.

"Similarly, in terms of the magnitude of the potential decline, we have used as a point of reference the average and median real price movements in previous downturns, which have been in the range of 8-13%. Using this as a broad guide, we have assumed a real medium house price decline of 11% from peak-to-trough – this decline is also very similar to the estimated magnitude of the decrease of an evenly weighted average of the three house price scenarios," Green said.

"From this trough in the house price cycle in the June 2018 quarter, we have then joined on the medium to long-term quarterly house price track used in the high house price scenario, ending up with the same equilibrium annual growth rate by the end of the forecast horizon of 4.5% YoY."

firstnz7.png

Green said that on the basis of First NZ's "five fundamental house price valuation metrics" (see graph below), the average and median estimates of these measures suggests the NZ housing market to be significantly overvalued by around 30-40%.

"While we readily acknowledge that there are fundamental economic factors which have underpinned recent house price growth, our analysis suggests that the recent acceleration in growth rates has moved house prices – particularly in the Auckland region – to levels in which there is an increased risk of potentially a sharp correction."

firstnz2.png

In looking at the duration of real house price cycles since 1970, the latest upturn thus far to the September 2015 quarter was around both the average and median length of 17 and 19 quarters respectively. In terms of the magnitude of the current upturn, the rise in real house prices to date of 38.9% (see graph below) was also around both the average and median increases recorded over the previous six cycles of 41.3% and 37.9% respectively, Green said.

firstnz5.png

"We assess that given the recent rapid acceleration in NZ house price growth, the elevated starting point for NZ house prices, together with the broad range of metrics suggesting reasonably substantial (30-40%) overvaluation, then the housing market risk assessment is skewed towards the downside."

Related Topics

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Green said that one of the anomalies of the recent house price cycle was that rents have remained relatively less volatile, largely ignoring both the rapid rise in house prices over most of 2000’s, and more recent decline over the 2008-09 period, together with the rapid acceleration in house prices experienced over the past year.

"In particular, the house price-to-rents ratio has continued to increase and is currently estimated to be around 82% above its average level. However, we suspect that this housing valuation metric is distorted by the significant government intervention in the NZ housing market.

"In particular, estimates suggest that around 60% of all rentals in the NZ are subsidised by the Government, one house in every 16 in Auckland is a Housing NZ property and around NZ$2bn is spent on accommodation subsidies. This intervention is likely to dampen rents and therefore result in some unquantified degree of additional overvaluation in the house price-to-rent ratio metric."

Green said that relative to house price upturns, the duration of downturns is somewhat shorter, with the average and median downward cycles of 11 and 9 quarters respectively.

firstnz4.png

"Moreover, the past housing market downturns have seen prices fall by an average of 13.3%, while recording a median real decline of 8.4%. However, it should be noted that together with a reasonably small sample set of downward cycles, the range of declines is relatively wide, with the smallest cycle decline being a modest 3.9%, while in contrast the largest real house price cycle has been a substantial 39.2%."

Green said that on the basis of the past six cycles, the ratio of the total size of the downturn relative to the magnitude of the preceeding upturn averages around -0.5 over the past six cycles, while the median ratio is around -0.3.

"On the basis of this rule-of-thumb reversion estimate, this suggests that major house price upturns tend to be followed by downturns which historically have retraced around 30-50% of the rise. Using these ratios as a simple guide and assuming that the increase in real house prices of 39% until the September 2015 quarter represents a peak in the current cycle, then this implies a potential real decline using the average and median estimates of around 12-19%."

*An early version of this article had 'First' and 'NZ' transposed in the headline. Apologies for the error.

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作者: 吥噜 时间: 2015-11-26 10:45:27

本帖最后由吥噜于 2015-11-26 09:47 编辑

哈哈，First NZ Capital 写的文章，看到名字我就笑了，知名的股票中介，人家玩金融股票的当然希望大家的钱都别买房了快拿去它那里投资了，这种带有明显vested interest的文章没有什么意义，就好像房产中介写论文说股票债券被高估50%未来会大跌，大家说看这样的文章有意义吗？

作者: mwe23 时间: 2015-11-26 10:54:48

吥噜发表于 2015-11-26 10:45
哈哈，First NZ Capital 写的文章，看到名字我就笑了，知名的股票中介，人家玩金融股票的当然希望大家的钱 ...

你以为每个analyst都是self-interested？

作者: 微苦蓝山 时间: 2015-11-26 11:14:52

楼主图样。。。。。。。。。。。
你贴100篇都没有用的。。。。大神们自有分解。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

作者: talkaboutvision 时间: 2015-11-26 11:27:39

mwe23 发表于 2015-11-26 10:54
你以为每个analyst都是self-interested？

屁股决定声音，放之四海而皆准

作者: skinguru 时间: 2015-11-26 12:01:13

吥噜发表于 2015-11-26 10:45
哈哈，First NZ Capital 写的文章，看到名字我就笑了，知名的股票中介，人家玩金融股票的当然希望大家的钱 ...

谁是股票中介？ First NZ Capital? Really?

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2015-11-26 14:19:53

建议楼上去搜索一下

作者: skinguru 时间: 2015-11-26 20:00:14

吥噜发表于 2015-11-26 14:19
建议楼上去搜索一下

建议你再了解一下他们的investment portfolio里面都包括什么

作者: subpop 时间: 2015-11-26 21:02:04

吥噜发表于 2015-11-26 09:45
哈哈，First NZ Capital 写的文章，看到名字我就笑了，知名的股票中介，人家玩金融股票的当然希望大家的钱 ...

要这么说的话，bnz老唱涨的tony也不可信，是不是怕银行坏账太多，要不就是贷款放不出去。世界太乱了，到底该听谁的啊。

作者: 小号马甲 时间: 2015-11-26 22:26:42

吥噜发表于 2015-11-26 10:45
哈哈，First NZ Capital 写的文章，看到名字我就笑了，知名的股票中介，人家玩金融股票的当然希望大家的钱 ...

我想来觉得股票就是虚拟数字。不算财富的。房子烧了，还有地在吧。你还能摸着个东西是吧。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2015-11-26 22:49:22

subpop 发表于 2015-11-26 20:02
要这么说的话，bnz老唱涨的tony也不可信，是不是怕银行坏账太多，要不就是贷款放不出去。世界太乱了，到 ...

Tony 我曾见过其人，是一次偶然参加了bnz的经济座谈会，他这个人也观察全球形势，不只局限在新西兰，当时记得他唱好农业经济说未来中国崛起中的中产的巨大需求将带动整个新西兰的农业产业，但由于他拿银行发的工资，其观点里就肯定带有服务主子的性质，他唱涨房价肯定有相当大的原因是因为银行的最赚钱业务里民宅类贷款是最大头最挣钱风险也最低的项目，如房价能永远持续上涨，即使不多盖一个新房，只是现有房源来回转手，银行也能有源源不断增加的贷款额度和不断增加的利息收入。所以tony的话就更得客观看待，虽然他的技术是没问题的。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2015-11-26 22:53:54

小号马甲发表于 2015-11-26 21:26
我想来觉得股票就是虚拟数字。不算财富的。房子烧了，还有地在吧。你还能摸着个东西是吧。 ...

对咱小老百姓来说就是这样的，房子比股票更适合中产和小富阶级，但到了金字塔的顶层，最有钱的阶层是没有多少会投资房产的，大部分都是掌握金融资产。

作者: subpop 时间: 2015-11-26 22:54:34

股票不算财富，bill gates 和jack ma表示不服。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2015-11-26 23:00:13

skinguru 发表于 2015-11-26 19:00
建议你再了解一下他们的investment portfolio里面都包括什么

当然也可以包括有房产投资一项，但问题是从它的角度去看，即使只是投资房产，它也是希望有闲钱投资的人通过把钱交给它去管理投资的，而不是希望看到大家去自己直接投资房产，所以唱跌房产的目的一定是希望制造一种房产投资回报小甚至会亏本的舆论和共识，然后在这种氛围下它可以更没有阻力的去开展新业务。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2015-11-26 23:04:48

本帖最后由吥噜于 2015-11-26 22:09 编辑

subpop 发表于 2015-11-26 21:54
股票不算财富，bill gates 和jack ma表示不服。

股票当然是财富，而且绝大多数最有钱的人90%以上的资产都是在持有股票里，只是股票不太适合中产和小老百姓，因为这个阶层的人大多只是一心想着赚快钱，当碰上股票时这种心态就很危险，对普通阶层来说是拿钱买股票去碰运气赚钱，而顶层阶层是拿股票赚钱换钱大多不是靠运气的。

作者: 小号马甲 时间: 2015-11-27 21:40:32

吥噜发表于 2015-11-26 23:04
股票当然是财富，而且绝大多数最有钱的人90%以上的资产都是在持有股票里，只是股票不太适合中产和小老百 ...

他把自己和比尔盖茨和马云划等号了

作者: subpop 时间: 2015-11-27 21:50:16

小号马甲发表于 2015-11-27 20:40
他把自己和比尔盖茨和马云划等号了

谢谢夸奖，另外我觉得你没炒过股票哦，或者你的智商只能够炒炒房？

作者: 小号马甲 时间: 2015-11-27 21:52:32

subpop 发表于 2015-11-27 21:50
谢谢夸奖，另外我觉得你没炒过股票哦，或者你的智商只能够炒炒房？

你的智商太高，只能炒股，不能炒房对吧。我不用炒股，我打上小学就天天看大盘了，那东西没什么好学的。

作者: subpop 时间: 2015-11-27 22:00:24

小号马甲发表于 2015-11-27 20:52
你的智商太高，只能炒股，不能炒房对吧。我不用炒股，我打上小学就天天看大盘了，那东西没什么好学的。 ...

新疆大盘鸡吗？

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