阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 18:16
Jonno Ingerson在NZIPF Annual Cobference总结是奥克兰房价会放慢但还是会升。
他说这次boom以历史数据走 ...
It’s official. Core Logic have declared that the Auckland market has turned.
By Miriam Bell
“I’m going to call this....Auckland has already turned,” Core Logic director of research Jonno Ingerson says the NZ Property Investor Federation conference on the weekend.
One of the measures he looks at is bank valuation activity against sales activity as they “almost perfectly match.”
He says bank valuations have decreased in Auckland – to the point that it is slower than elsewhere in the country.
Ingerson said that while Auckland has turned surrounding regions, particularly Whangarei, Hamilton and Tauranga had already taken off and some buyers may have missed the boat already.
Another factor is that the number of property listings has slowed when they should be picking up on a seasonal basis.
“Listings should be screaming up at this time of the year as we come into Christmas,” he said. “The number of new listings is starting to back off and that’s anti-seasonal.”
“That’s very unusual.”
Ingerson also told delegates to be very careful using median sale price as a measure of what is going on. He prefers a stratified median price index which gives a better picture of what is happening in the market.
As for reasons behind the fall, Ingerson, suggested there were a variety of reasons for the turnaround.
“The Auckland market is slowing, probably driven by China’s slowdown along with the Government’s tax changes and the looming LVR changes,” he said
However, the city’s supply shortage means there is no quick fix to the price pressures in the market.
For these reasons, Aucklanders will continue to move out into other areas like Hamilton and Tauranga – as current evidence shows they are doing in growing numbers.
Ingerson said sales activity in the regions will continue to strengthen but it is important to remember that different factors affect different markets.
While Auckland’s values are not likely to show strong increases for some time, that does not mean that values in other markets will catch those of Auckland, he said.
“The gap between Auckland and the rest of the main centres does not always close. Again, there are different factors, such as the local economy, at play in all these markets.
“So, while values are definitely picking up in other centres, like Hamilton and Tauranga, I wouldn’t expect that prices in other centres will ever catch those in Auckland.”
Ingerson added it is important not to overlook the fact there is still a colossal amount of Chinese money set to flow into the New Zealand market.
http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/5524/the-auckland-market-has-turned?utm_source=LL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%5BThe+Landlord%5D+It%27s+official+-+The+Auckland+housing+market+has+turned
Scofield 发表于 2015-10-19 15:08
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 18:16
Jonno Ingerson在NZIPF Annual Cobference总结是奥克兰房价会放慢但还是会升。
他说这次boom以历史数据走 ...
Lease 发表于 2015-10-19 18:24
阿海， 过去几年空军已经被打得溃不成军， 都已经掉到18层地狱了。 你就饶过人家吧， 这次我们多头认输一 ...
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 17:35
Jonno展示97年到现在的房价和净移民数量两个图很有意思
2000到2003年净移民非常厉害，接着2004到2006年 ...
keepower 发表于 2015-10-19 18:42
饭点过了空军就要来围剿你了:D
ttl0403 发表于 2015-10-19 17:19
你一说房价要降，投资客就都慌了！哈哈，笑而不语
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 18:45
空军最好别倒，总需要人当我们房东的租客嘛哈哈!
Lease 发表于 2015-10-19 18:24
阿海， 过去几年空军已经被打得溃不成军， 都已经掉到18层地狱了。 你就饶过人家吧， 这次我们多头认输一 ...
Lease 发表于 2015-10-19 18:24
阿海， 过去几年空军已经被打得溃不成军， 都已经掉到18层地狱了。 你就饶过人家吧， 这次我们多头认输一 ...
tong1jie 发表于 2015-10-19 20:13
Lease您这话的意思是真的要降了？求您把话说明白，您说什么我都信，别说的含含糊糊让我坐立不安啊 ...
儿科医生 发表于 2015-10-19 21:16
多头们，这次恐怕你们要失望了， 地下钱庄已被卡死，国内有几千亿的热钱被卡住，没人敢动 ...
Lease 发表于 2015-10-19 20:48
既然你那么相信我，那我就说得更加明白一点：近来空军气势较盛，我就干脆让他们彻底high一回。等他们真的 ...
微苦蓝山 发表于 2015-10-19 19:07
空军就是无房者？这是什么华丽丽的逻辑？
dennistan 发表于 2015-10-19 21:13
发帖不要付费更不要负责. 可以断章取义，可以本末倒置，可以黑白颠倒，可以随心所欲.这几天才开始看下论 ...
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 20:54
人民币要变成国际货币之一，必须取消任何限制货币国内和国外流通的规定。
所以迟早人民币潮会飞向全球各地 ...
dennistan 发表于 2015-10-19 21:13
发帖不要付费更不要负责. 可以断章取义，可以本末倒置，可以黑白颠倒，可以随心所欲.这几天才开始看下论 ...
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 18:16
Jonno Ingerson在NZIPF Annual Cobference总结是奥克兰房价会放慢但还是会升。
他说这次boom以历史数据走 ...
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 18:35
Jonno展示97年到现在的房价和净移民数量两个图很有意思
2000到2003年净移民非常厉害，接着2004到2006年 ...
阿海 发表于 2015-10-19 17:16
Jonno Ingerson在NZIPF Annual Cobference总结是奥克兰房价会放慢但还是会升。
他说这次boom以历史数据走 ...
我真不是孙红雷 发表于 2015-10-20 00:30
星期三早上10点45出9月净移民数，敬请期待，预期+5470
ThinkOutLoud 发表于 2015-10-20 09:45
"...他说这次boom以历史数据走势来说还有几年走没结束。..."
他说还有几年结束?
阿海 发表于 2015-10-20 20:44
大部分都认为到2017，之后回落一点，然后不怎升几年，然后又起飞
儿科医生 发表于 2015-10-20 21:48
一切的假设都是基于国内热钱出的来的前提！不然哪里来的疯狂购买力？
阿海 发表于 2015-10-20 21:44
大部分都认为到2017，之后回落一点，然后不怎升几年，然后又起飞
阿海 发表于 2015-10-20 20:44
大部分都认为到2017，之后回落一点，然后不怎升几年，然后又起飞
儿科医生 发表于 2015-10-20 21:48
一切的假设都是基于国内热钱出的来的前提！不然哪里来的疯狂购买力？
Lease 发表于 2015-10-19 20:48
既然你那么相信我，那我就说得更加明白一点：近来空军气势较盛，我就干脆让他们彻底high一回。等他们真的 ...
tong1jie 发表于 2015-11-8 10:58
请教一个问题，现在两套房A和B
A房贷款多，B房贷款少
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