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标题: 新西兰总理约翰·基近日警告奥克兰的房产投机者：奥克兰房价可能会腰斩 [打印本页]

作者: 魔鬼的颤音 时间: 2015-8-26 11:23:55 标题: 新西兰总理约翰·基近日警告奥克兰的房产投机者：奥克兰房价可能会腰斩

本帖最后由魔鬼的颤音于 2015-8-26 10:26 编辑

天维网8月26日报道援引Stuff消息新西兰总理约翰·基近日警告奥克兰的房产投机者：奥克兰房价可能会暴跌。试图冷却火热的房地产市场。

　　央行在周一表示，只拥有几套房产并且高额借贷的散户投资者是过去一年里把奥克兰房价推高24%的主要力量。这些投资者不仅将首次购房者挤出了市场，更是将一些搬家的购房者排挤出局。

　　虽然同时推高房价的还有大量的住房短缺，常年的建造不足，创纪录的移民人口增长和较低的银行利率。但是周一央行副行长Grant Spencer表示，央行已经把目标瞄准了投资者。

　　央行的分析认为，六月份投资者完成了奥克兰41%的房产销售。相比2013年，增加了8%。Grant Spencer表示，这一趋势增大了奥克兰房地产市场的投资风险。除此之外，经济下行时不仅金融体系将要面临更大的压力，其他相关产业也将被房市拖累。

　　虽然总理淡化了价格上涨带来的银行业风险，但是他仍将面临极大的压力。周一在国会上，总理告诉记者“大量的房屋供应正在满足市场的需求，虽然奥克兰有一些泡沫，但是这些泡沫将会消散。”，“有一件事情央行应该说，但是没强调的就是，利率不可能永远这么低，　　当投资者不能获得预期的资本增值的时候，他们将会更加小心的应对。”

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总理首次跳出来对房地产市场唱反调，是迫于政治压力还是准备对地产动手？各路看多的大神、看空的腰斩哥，以及土豪们如何看待此消息的分量？

作者: todayis5 时间: 2015-8-26 11:25:53

沙发

沙发沙发

作者: fangyangde 时间: 2015-8-26 11:37:28

更是将一些搬家的购房者排挤出局。想换房，把房子卖了以后，才发现，同样的价钱已经再也买不到这样的房子了。

作者: pc1 时间: 2015-8-26 11:45:32

总理也成了腰斩哥了

作者: 魔鬼的颤音 时间: 2015-8-26 11:49:09

pc1 发表于 2015-8-26 10:45
总理也成了腰斩哥了

毕竟总理可以引导舆论，他放出腰斩、暴跌是有引起市场动荡、恐慌的可能。

作者: xiaomobrave 时间: 2015-8-26 11:54:50

美国有炒房的吗？美国是怎么对付炒房一族的？

作者: 119900 时间: 2015-8-26 11:57:08

说啥没用。。。
看实际情况吧。。。

作者: 我行我素我酷 时间: 2015-8-26 11:58:42

xiaomobrave 发表于 2015-8-26 10:54
美国有炒房的吗？美国是怎么对付炒房一族的？

美国比较少，美国有盈利税，交易费，地税，都相当高。。美国税务部门权力相当大，全球查你。。。短期抄的，吵不动

作者: 4143920 时间: 2015-8-26 11:59:52

投资者占房地产市场近一半哪个国家敢这么干

作者: 4143920 时间: 2015-8-26 12:00:55

xiaomobrave 发表于 2015-8-26 10:54
美国有炒房的吗？美国是怎么对付炒房一族的？

市场力量让他腰斩所以08年次贷危机了

作者: skysadness 时间: 2015-8-26 12:01:55

wow !!politician words!!! They will do what they said!!! right?

作者: lionel 时间: 2015-8-26 12:02:44

除非把利息调起来

作者: icyfantasy 时间: 2015-8-26 12:03:55

目测John Key最近要买房了。。。

作者: 博无斋主 时间: 2015-8-26 12:07:45

新西兰泡沫大吗？靠政府打压不会太有效。这是个资本自由的国家。利息是双刃剑单纯为了打压房价不会提高很多。

作者: mulder82 时间: 2015-8-26 12:10:07

原文：http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ ... -nasty-surprise-key

现在政府不知道怎么调利率，实体经济不好，所以利率低，可惜带动了本来就燥热的房市。

那些说房市一直涨的我们就等着瞧，一厢情愿罢了，这样的上涨速度能持续多久，呵呵。

昨天去看了Barfoot南区的拍卖，58 David Ave卖了$812K, 旁边地完全一样的房64 David Ave去年年底也是Barfoot卖的，$635K，半年多一点儿涨了将近20万。继续疯？笑话。

作者: 魔鬼的颤音 时间: 2015-8-26 12:12:58

我行我素我酷发表于 2015-8-26 10:58
美国比较少，美国有盈利税，交易费，地税，都相当高。。美国税务部门权力相当大，全球查你。。。短期抄的 ...

新西兰和美国并不具备可比性。美国金融业发达，房地产只是众多投资的一种，入手债券、股市、期货等金融衍生品的人比例很大。

作者: pc1 时间: 2015-8-26 12:13:37

坐等高手大神们发表高见来反驳腰斩哥总理的言论

作者: GreatCursER 时间: 2015-8-26 12:16:19

总理看来是要下手买房了

作者: Stella1000 时间: 2015-8-26 12:18:52

本帖最后由 Stella1000 于 2015-8-26 11:21 编辑

近期的各方信息和舆论导向对房市都不利好。。。。
不可全信，也不可不信！！

不盲目跟风！别找死！也别作死！
房市在将来的冒个阶段肯定会有调整，但谁也说不准它会怎样调整，到底有多大的调整。

我看大家还是有些应付挑战的心理准备为好！！
小心驶得万年船！！！

作者: 魔鬼的颤音 时间: 2015-8-26 12:37:24

Stella1000 发表于 2015-8-26 11:18
近期的各方信息和舆论导向对房市都不利好。。。。
不可全信，也不可不信！！

在新西兰，手上资金不投到房地产上，也没别的投资选择

作者: smallice 时间: 2015-8-26 12:54:30

不知是不是真会跌，不过总理成功预测NZD/USD 在0.65为合理区间曾经美林高管的头衔还是不能小视的

作者: xpd2000 时间: 2015-8-26 13:04:40

做个秀罢了

作者: 狂奔的蜗牛!!! 时间: 2015-8-26 13:13:26

总理说话然并卵，央行说话最管用。
要问房价何时降，且看利率何时涨。

作者: aniceguy 时间: 2015-8-26 13:18:07

涨息？

English says Government has room to loosen fiscal policy if hard landing in China increases risk of recession; also says RBNZ has much more room to cut given OCR is at 3%

作者: 狂奔的蜗牛!!! 时间: 2015-8-26 13:19:44

所以说房价不会降了，利息这么低。现在应该警惕的是通货膨胀了。

作者: icyfantasy 时间: 2015-8-26 13:20:57

狂奔的蜗牛!!! 发表于 2015-8-26 12:13
总理说话然并卵，央行说话最管用。
要问房价何时降，且看利率何时涨。

好诗。。。

nzherald上没看到这个新闻啊？？？短期内降房价也只能通过利率调控了，只是不知道什么时候会升。。。
而且对于最近汇钱进来的海外买家来说如果房价跌了汇率涨了貌似还是不亏的节奏。。。

作者: guo31668 时间: 2015-8-26 13:51:30

有没总理说要斩腰的原新闻啊，想学学英文斩腰怎么说。

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2015-8-26 13:53:28

guo31668 发表于 2015-8-26 12:51
有没总理说要斩腰的原新闻啊，想学学英文斩腰怎么说。

用中文说的哇

作者: guo31668 时间: 2015-8-26 13:57:31

love_3_month 发表于 2015-8-26 12:53
用中文说的哇

总理都会说中文啦，真是符合中国大众审美，很好。

作者: bondbunny 时间: 2015-8-26 14:06:01

有些朋友不要只看个中文标题就发宏论，报道内容里总理有讲"腰斩"吗?

作者: 4143920 时间: 2015-8-26 14:07:29

guo31668 发表于 2015-8-26 12:51
有没总理说要斩腰的原新闻啊，想学学英文斩腰怎么说。

kidneys cut

腰子斩

作者: 蓝山小野猫商铺 时间: 2015-8-26 14:45:02

总理让腰斩来的更猛烈些吧。。。

作者: masterq 时间: 2015-8-26 15:01:22

政客的說話你都信？其實裝雞總理的意思是鼓勵投脂者買房～

作者: wnin001 时间: 2015-8-26 15:10:03

这个是原文吧，慢慢看 enjoy

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ ... -nasty-surprise-key

作者: wnin001 时间: 2015-8-26 15:11:32

Auckland property investors could face a "nasty surprise"- Key
JAMES WEIR AND HAMISH RUTHERFORD
Last updated 17:49, August 24 2015

Prime Minister John Key is warning investors chasing gains in the Auckland housing market they could face a "nasty surprise" as he appeared to tip a cooling of booming price increases.

The Reserve Bank said on Monday that small property investors, buying two to four properties with a large amount of debt, are a key factor driving the hot Auckland housing market, up 24 per cent in just a year.

And the investors have been pushing out not just first home buyers, but also "movers" according to the Reserve Bank.

The property market was also being boosted by a massive housing shortage, years of under-building, a record migration boom and low mortgage interest rates.

But in a speech on the property market on Monday, Reserve Bank deputy governor Grant Spencer also took aim at investors.

Property investors bought 41 per cent of Auckland homes in June, up 8 percentage points since late 2013. Some of that increase was at the expense of first home buyers in early 2014, but more recently it has been at the expense of "movers" already in the market he said.

"This trend is increasing the risk inherent in the Auckland market. The increasing investor presence is likely to amplify the housing cycle, and worsen the potential damage from a downturn, both to the financial system and the broader economy," Reserve Bank deputy governor Grant Spencer said.

While Key played down the risk rising prices posed to the banking sector, he expected pressure to ease in New Zealand's largest city.

"There's a lot of supply now coming into the market. There's a bit of frothiness in Auckland that I think you might see dissipate a bit actually," Key told reporters at Parliament on Monday.

"One of the things the Reserve Bank didn't say but should have said [is] interest rates won't stay low forever, so when people go and buy houses, purely on the expectation that they're going to get a capital gain, they've got to be careful they don't come in for a nasty surprise," Key said.

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Key said the banking sector appeared to be at little risk from a downturn, with the Reserve Bank's own 2014 stress tests showing the banks could cope if unemployment shot to 13 per cent and Auckland houses prices dropped 40 per cent.

"The banks are stress testing, the Reserve Bank's stress tested. Yes, there's some more risk if houses prices go up but it is at the margins."

Key believed most of the investors in the property market would be locals.

"While some will be offshore, in the residential market I think the bulk of them are New Zealand residents."

However the Reserve Bank said investors who rely heavily on bank lending to invest will be hit by the new loan to value ratio lending limits on Auckland property investors due to come into force in November.

"That is particularly so when we consider that over half of investor lending is currently being written at high LVRs (loan to value ratios) of over 70 per cent," Spencer said.

But the Property Investors' Federation says it is wrong to blame rental property owners for Auckland's rising house prices.

"The NZPIF disagrees that rental property activity is the prime cause of Auckland house price rises. Rental properties make up around 40 per cent of all houses in Auckland, so you would expect that the proportion of sales would be around this level," Federation executive officer Andrew King said.

"This is a supply and demand problem," he said.

Over the past year, net migration has increased by nearly 60,000, with many of migrants settling in Auckland. It is obvious that there is a supply problem.

Hitting investors to try and kerb demand is unlikely to yield the result the Reserve Bank wants.

"We actually need more rental properties in Auckland as there are signs of overcrowding due to shortages," King said.

Spencer said getting on the housing ladder had become a lot harder, especially for first home buyers, as investors took a great share of the housing market in Auckland.

Another factor in rising prices is the shortage of up to 20,000 homes, when Auckland is only building about 8,300 a year. With the present migration boom that may not be enough for the housing shortage to get worse.

The sharp price rise in the past year stretched the price-to-income ratio for the Auckland region to 9, double the ratio for the rest of New Zealand, and places Auckland among the world's most expensive cities, he said.

Auckland property market

What is driving prices up so fast?

A shortage of homes:  between 15,000 and 20,000 homes

Not enough new homes being built: about 8300 homes a year being built

A migration boom: a net migration gain of 60,000 in the past year, with about half of those headed for Auckland

New residents could account for about 10,000 out of 30,000 home sales in the past year

Money is cheap: Low and falling interest rates mean people can borrow more

Investors are eating a bigger share of the pie: Property investors bought 41 per cent of Auckland homes in June, up 8 percentage points since late 2013

Investors are borrowing heavily: New mortgage lending jumped 28 per cent  in the June year as more homes were bought at higher average prices

But investors' borrowing jumped 40 per cent

Source: Reserve Bank

作者: soss 时间: 2015-8-26 15:17:10

总理说纽币合理汇率在0.65的时候也没人信。

作者: wnin001 时间: 2015-8-26 15:23:15

政府没有认为泡沫的存在，单纯的供需不平衡。 "This is a supply and demand problem," he said.
房价暴涨的原因：
A shortage of homes
Not enough new homes being built
A migration boom
Money is cheap
Investors are eating a bigger share of the pie/Investors are borrowing heavily
最后一点是关键，也是这篇报道的重点：投资客太多，贷款太重，你们要注意啦，小心"nasty surprise" （中文的翻译是“腰斩”吗？ :) )

作者: markrey 时间: 2015-8-26 15:24:10

看市场何去何从～～～如大浪淘沙～～～

作者: grey_goth 时间: 2015-8-26 15:35:28

哦。

作者: 魔鬼的颤音 时间: 2015-8-26 17:39:16

soss 发表于 2015-8-26 14:17
总理说纽币合理汇率在0.65的时候也没人信。

没错

作者: shagwell 时间: 2015-8-26 17:52:15

聪明的赶紧趁机找中介卖房了，不是最高，也差不多了。
总理的意思无非是警示一下，让房市早点冷却下来。省的再上去，硬着陆，接不起

作者: chendalim 时间: 2015-8-26 18:43:04

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作者: 魔鬼的颤音 时间: 2015-8-27 10:29:50

chendalim 发表于 2015-8-26 17:43
市场已经开始大刀砍了，同志们要顶住

毫无压力

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