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标题: 这是最近难得一见的好文章 [打印本页]
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 17:35:20 标题: 这是最近难得一见的好文章
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作者: 阿海 时间: 2015-6-22 17:39:01
国际化都市都这样啊，房地产吸引很多国际投资者，所以奥克兰房价这几年升那么厉害
作者: smartchina 时间: 2015-6-22 17:40:07
除了移民，奥克兰的地位还不如都柏林
作者: Quad 时间: 2015-6-22 17:40:35
9 Comments
by bw | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 14:43
up6
"I am now thinking of Auckland as becoming a genuine international city" I've lived and worked in many genuine international cities, Jonno. London and New York amongst them, and I can tell you, an International City, Auckland isn't. ( And, yes, Jonno. I've lived there as well!) Neither is it going to become one. A Speculative City prone to the Boom and Busts of foreign capital? Quite probably. But International? No.....
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by dtcarter | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 14:46
up1
yeah, only 40% of aucklanders were born overseas. No way a city with a majority born in the same country could be international eh?
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by xingmowang | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 14:44
up2
With a population of 2 million, AKL is a city. High house price does not make you international though.
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by Chris_J | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 14:47
up2
Australia realises that foreign investment is a risk to the financial security of both itself and its citizens.
NZ does not.
Will all Aucklanders need to either be foreigners or rent from a foreigner before anyone thinks this is a problem. In fact we are rapidly approaching this situation, yet the real questions are still not being asked.
If Chinese are happy to buy Auckland out at 1% rental returns, how can NZers ever compete when we have to pay our foreign owned banks 5 times that??
A little foreign investment was good, a lot is bad...
What does it say about our government protecting our rights when the right of a foreigner to become your landlord is more important than the right to own your own home??
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by Simon | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 14:53
up3
You're getting close to breaching the Fair Trading Act s9 misleading decpetive conduct in the course of trade.
If this sort of post is in anyway linked to your qv business, and stimulating buyer interest in auckland is deemed related to sales of your (very poor) e-valuer and reports, then the contents of this post could be considered trade linked. And is clearly misleading based at least on your comparison and commentry around sydney and Auckland.
Why not use the same scales and colour schemes for your maps? You have both at 1mill +, but for some reason have sydney as an intense red for this, and then several other shades of red for slightly lower values 900k, 800k etc, making it appear Sydney has much more intense, higher pricing, whereas Auckland at 800+ gets a brown shade or orange...
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by Keyser Söze | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 15:01
up7
Auckland is no Sydney. Or Melbourne.
It's CBD is soulless. It's houses are leaky and poorly built. Public transport is a joke and commute times insane. It's beaches simply don't compare. Wages are about 40% less than in Sydney.
Auckland is an okay city. Sydney is truely world class.
New Zealand is a world class country, but Auckland itself is a constant disappointment.
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by Machiavelli | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 15:10
up0
Spot on I'd say Mr Ingerson.
But let us be reminded that just because Auckland commands a premium over regional NZ it doesn't mean it's a one way ticket as more and more people seem to be assuming, not least of all the REA's I have talked to lately.
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by iconoclast | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 15:32
up0
Yes, Australia imposes stamp duty on houses and businesses. It's a State Tax
NSW has an income from Stamp Duty of $5 billion per year, which enables it to pour massive amounts of investment into infrastructure for the benefit of the population as a whole and aslso to non-financially compensate existing locals in some small way for the pressures new-comers create - a piggy-bank account that NZ spurns - which the Chinese arrivals have been contributing heavily to
Just imagine, Auckland could right now, have in place, a world class double-tracked railway and subway all paid for, courtesy of migrants, instead of having to beg Wellington
Interestingly, South Australia State has just announced the abolition of Stamp Duty on businesses and commercial premises as a means of attracting investment and jobs away from the other states - another piggy-bank inducement not available to the non-auckland regions of New Zealand
Read more
http://www.businessspectator.com ... x/will-sa-spark-...
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by iconoclast | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 16:39
up0
Australian Parliamentary home ownership inquiry begins this Friday
What these housing markets experienced was artificial demand generated by their banking and financial systems, having lent colossal sums of private debt to speculators to bid up housing prices which led to the entry of ever-more buyers.
It is during this period these institutions claim a dwelling shortage is the cause of record high housing prices
In a blunt submission to the upcoming parliamentary inquiry into home ownership, it is claimed there is an oversupply of housing, just as there was in the United States just before the market collapse that precipitated the global financial crisis
read more
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-po ... stralian-housing...
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作者: Quad 时间: 2015-6-22 17:41:23
by Keyser Söze | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 15:01
up7
Auckland is no Sydney. Or Melbourne.
It's CBD is soulless. It's houses are leaky and poorly built. Public transport is a joke and commute times insane. It's beaches simply don't compare. Wages are about 40% less than in Sydney.
Auckland is an okay city. Sydney is truely world class.
New Zealand is a world class country, but Auckland itself is a constant disappointment.
作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-22 17:43:40
本帖最后由 Venox10111 于 2015-6-22 16:45 编辑
Corelogic, 数据党啊。。。。。chart 做的真不错
居然还做了环线图。。。。牛
作者: iris 时间: 2015-6-22 17:44:03
Quad 发表于 2015-6-22 16:41 
by Keyser Söze | Mon, 22/06/2015 - 15:01
up7
Auckland is no Sydney. Or Melbourne.
from the wording , it is obviously very subjective, author had strong self interest and lack of objective judgement, such comments has zero value...
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 17:45:17
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作者: Quad 时间: 2015-6-22 17:46:52
phlip0813 发表于 2015-6-22 16:45
您引用他们的回复 是想表示？？
同意啊
作者: Quad 时间: 2015-6-22 17:47:15
Venox10111 发表于 2015-6-22 16:43
Corelogic, 数据党啊。。。。。chart 做的真不错
居然还做了环线图。。。。牛
...
还以为是你提供的数据呢
作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-22 17:47:30
phlip0813 发表于 2015-6-22 16:45
您引用他们的回复 是想表示？？
Corelogic 已经用他们的数据模型做了一个很明显的暗示，可惜很多人还是不清楚啊。。。
作者: Quad 时间: 2015-6-22 17:47:36
Venox10111 发表于 2015-6-22 16:43
Corelogic, 数据党啊。。。。。chart 做的真不错
居然还做了环线图。。。。牛
...
还以为是你提供的数据呢
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 17:48:22
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作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-22 17:51:43
本帖最后由 Venox10111 于 2015-6-22 17:20 编辑
Quad 发表于 2015-6-22 16:47
还以为是你提供的数据呢
黑羊数据来说，奥克兰细节方面可以做的更多（当然，CoreLogic 可以做的更多，但未必会放出来）
国际对比方面，那肯定是 CoreLogic 了（全球房地产数据垄断者啊）
而且这个数据模型分区清晰，环线明确，就算仅仅是奥克兰的，黑羊也暂时没这个水平做
作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-22 17:53:41
phlip0813 发表于 2015-6-22 16:48
是该听能在interest.co.nz受邀发表文章的corelogic大牛 还是要听在评论里面瞎BB的无名小号儿 大家都会有 ...
确实是难得的精品文章，并且可以看看 corelogic 的数据模型，不错
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 17:56:55
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作者: 呼啸寒风 时间: 2015-6-22 18:00:09
奥克兰真的和悉尼墨尔本没的比。。。。
作者: love_3_month 时间: 2015-6-22 18:00:14
Quad 发表于 2015-6-22 16:46
同意啊
这种看法的缺陷就是太主观了。。。完全是个人喜好。。。
作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-22 18:05:11
本帖最后由 Venox10111 于 2015-6-22 17:06 编辑
phlip0813 发表于 2015-6-22 16:56
让人眼前一亮啊 大牛就是大牛 话不多说 直接上干货 这文章看着真爽
While we were in China we met with a company who specialise in marketing to high net worth Chinese. They had carried out a survey asking respondents their most popular places to buy real estate. Topping the list was Los Angeles at 18%, but I was stunned to see New Zealand equal 9th on the list at 1.8% alongside Melbourne, Singapore ,and the UK, with Sydney slightly higher at 2.2%.
如果所料不错，应该是居外网，我以前工作的公司也和他们有合作。。。
这篇文章挺值得比较仔细的去看。
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 18:06:46
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作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-22 18:14:29
本帖最后由 Venox10111 于 2015-6-22 17:17 编辑
phlip0813 发表于 2015-6-22 17:06
确实没法比 悉尼墨尔本和北京上海能比吗 但是作为国际都市 他们并不需要互相比 只要把区域内的其他城市比 ...
如果以本地眼光来看，奥克兰早就太贵了（我在2011年就做过类似图表，发现基本上中区已经很难找到 40－50的房子了）
http://bbs.skykiwi.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1607996&page=1&extra=#pid26220921
而到了2012年，发觉压根就很难找到房子了。。。（不涨没天理）
http://bbs.skykiwi.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1886659
当然，在这个期间，我在自己经济条件许可的情况下坚持买进。
这篇文章说的就是，kiwi 们，不能用本地眼光看国际问题！奥克兰从数据分析来看，是价值洼地。。。。
然后。。。。。被喷了（而且被喷的比黑羊更惨啊）
You're getting close to breaching the Fair Trading Act s9 misleading decpetive conduct in the course of trade.
If this sort of post is in anyway linked to your qv business, and stimulating buyer interest in auckland is deemed related to sales of your (very poor) e-valuer and reports, then the contents of this post could be considered trade linked. And is clearly misleading based at least on your comparison and commentry around sydney and Auckland.
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 18:38:21
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作者: diershi 时间: 2015-6-22 21:44:13
国际大都市？？？你想多了吧...................
作者: winny 时间: 2015-6-22 22:18:33
作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2015-6-22 22:28:12
看了这个，我突然觉得自己很娇气
作者: GreatCursER 时间: 2015-6-22 22:28:24
国际大都市？
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-22 22:47:48
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作者: STW7000 时间: 2015-6-22 23:22:12
完全同意 问题时如果美国走强 新西兰会怎么做
作者: phlip0813 时间: 2015-6-23 13:58:57
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作者: 呼啸寒风 时间: 2015-6-23 14:52:27
STW7000 发表于 2015-6-22 22:22
完全同意 问题时如果美国走强 新西兰会怎么做
奶粉卖不出价钱，美国再好再烂，新西兰都是死虾子一只~~~~~~
作者: smallice 时间: 2015-6-23 15:43:20
如果真想控制房价 我觉得只有一个方法 就是控制家庭拥有房产数量，
作者: love_3_month 时间: 2015-6-23 15:49:38
smallice 发表于 2015-6-23 14:43
如果真想控制房价 我觉得只有一个方法 就是控制家庭拥有房产数量，
如果没有或者减少投资者的存在，市场会不活跃，价格会走低。但是也正因为不活跃，新房建造会少，市场供不应求依然存在，长期来看对经济的破坏一样存在。
作者: smallice 时间: 2015-6-23 15:54:23
love_3_month 发表于 2015-6-23 14:49
如果没有或者减少投资者的存在，市场会不活跃，价格会走低。但是也正因为不活跃，新房建造会少，市场供不 ...
如果价格调整一下 也未尝不是一件好事 毕竟也很多人是没有房子想买自住房的，之前国内不就是有限购么
如果市场不够活跃了 再取消就好了
作者: love_3_month 时间: 2015-6-23 16:11:44
smallice 发表于 2015-6-23 14:54
如果价格调整一下 也未尝不是一件好事 毕竟也很多人是没有房子想买自住房的，之前国内不就是有限购么
如 ...
比起有人买不起房，但还可以租房的情况来看，如果市场上连租房都租不到，整体房子不够，那才是社会危机。
目前说几年后缺6万套，如果政策使用失当，影响这几年的新房建造数目，增量少于预期，缺口更大，更麻烦。
作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-23 16:15:59
love_3_month 发表于 2015-6-23 15:11
比起有人买不起房，但还可以租房的情况来看，如果市场上连租房都租不到，整体房子不够，那才是社会危机。 ...
同意，现在确实租房也属于比较困难的，所以 buy to rent 还是一个很好的选择。
作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2015-6-23 16:18:38
Venox10111 发表于 2015-6-23 15:15
同意，现在确实租房也属于比较困难的，所以 buy to rent 还是一个很好的选择。
...
rent to buy or buy to rent or...?
作者: Venox10111 时间: 2015-6-23 16:22:25
NewLynnHse 发表于 2015-6-23 15:18
rent to buy or buy to rent or...?
buy and put on the market for rent la.
作者: smallice 时间: 2015-6-23 16:26:00
love_3_month 发表于 2015-6-23 15:11
比起有人买不起房，但还可以租房的情况来看，如果市场上连租房都租不到，整体房子不够，那才是社会危机。 ...
说到底还是供需关系的不平衡造成的， 如果政府能多放些地 同时限制有房人都购多套房的数量 这样供应量就会变大，价格就会调整 让一些需要自住需求的人有自己的房子 我觉得有很多租房子的还是希望有自己的房子 只是房价太高，没办法只能租房子
作者: love_3_month 时间: 2015-6-23 16:53:41
smallice 发表于 2015-6-23 15:26
说到底还是供需关系的不平衡造成的， 如果政府能多放些地 同时限制有房人都购多套房的数量 这样供应量就 ...
可是还要联系是否有开发商觉得有利可图才去大规模的造房子，以及是否有这么多建筑工人去造房子啊。现在市场红火，所以钱和人都不缺。市场冷了，钱走了，builder也干别的去了，放再多地也不能保证能造出更多的房子来。
现在已经有文章说建筑质量下滑，常通不过检查。所以怎么弄我觉得真的没有那么简单，搞不好就适得其反了。
作者: enningtang 时间: 2015-6-23 17:41:09
如果真的要拿奥克兰当作国际大都市来评论，关注2个数据就好了，流动人口和工资收入与房屋租金承受力。这2个点都是确保房市能保持上涨的关键，能给房市投资不断输血，是房市硬需求的基础。这就是中国为什么二三线城市经常出现鬼城现象而一线大城市房价还是继续涨。这2点出问题，房市必垮。奥克兰现在有没有满足这2点呢？
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