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标题: 高盛报道-纽币未来两年将跌0:63, 对人民币1:4以下- 新西兰经济将下滑 [打印本页]

作者: alicexing 时间: 2014-10-7 14:33:05 标题: 高盛报道-纽币未来两年将跌0:63, 对人民币1:4以下- 新西兰经济将下滑

Goldman Sachs Research (高盛)
FX Views: Justified but Unsustainable: The Outlook for the Kiwi Dollar

Published 11:50 AM Fri Oct 3 2014

1. The Kiwi Dollar has recently witnessed an impressive weakening. Since  early July it has depreciated by around 8% relative to its G10 peers, driven in  part by an 11% weakening of NZD/$ (Exhibit 1). Despite the large depreciation,  the RBNZ argued in a recent report (published on September 25) that it still  sees the level of the exchange rate as “unjustified and unsustainable”,  and that it believes the Kiwi Dollar is "susceptible to a significant  downward adjustment over the coming six to nine months” (see here and here).  But, given the sizeable weakness we have seen over the past two weeks, can that  really still be true? And, if so, just how overvalued is the Kiwi? In this  week’s FX views, we show that, based on structural factors alone, the  Kiwi Dollar remains expensive. We continue to expect a sizeable depreciation of  NZD/$ over the longer run, to 0.63, on the back of declines in New Zealand’s  terms-of-trade, slow relative productivity growth and a protracted US cyclical  outperformance. The recent move in the NZD has, in RBNZ speak, brought the  exchange rate closer to “justified levels” based on business cycle drivers. But  also over the short-to-medium term, we continue to see some downside risks to  the tune of around 4% lower in both NZD/$ and in the G10 trade-weighted exchange  rate.

2. The recent Kiwi weakness was sparked by the confluence of three relatively  well-known factors, which dovetail with the fundamental arguments for a weaker  NZD that we have previously laid  out. First, there have been sizeable declines in commodity prices worldwide.  The ANZ commodity price index, which tracks movements in the prices received for  New Zealand’s main exports, has fallen by over 12% since it peaked in early  January this year (Exhibit 1). The decline in New Zealand export prices has, in  turn, been driven by a marked softening of the China growth outlook, in combination with a destocking  cycle of dairy products in mainland China and, more recently, Russia’s ban on  European dairy exports. Second, while the effect of the RBNZ’s intervention on  the exchange rate in August remains unclear, the intervention period coincided  with notable exchange rate weakness (Exhibit 2). At the same time, the mere  announcement of the RBNZ’s August intervention on September 29 pushed NZD/$ down  a further 2%. The threat of additional intervention should, in our view, deter  any rapid bounce back in the Kiwi Dollar. Last, while New Zealand’s growth  outlook is enviable compared with most of its G10 peers, since July both short-  and long-term interest rate differentials have started to move in the US’s  favour. This has, all else equal, helped subdue the ‘hunt for yield’ that has  otherwise been so supportive for the Kiwi Dollar. Assessing the relative impact  of these various factors is, of course, difficult. But a simple regression-based  framework -- controlling for interest rate differentials, interventions, changes  in risk-appetite and commodity prices – puts NZD/$ two-to-five big figures below  its current value of 0.78 (Exhibit 3). In RBNZ speak, the current level of the  exchange rate no longer looks as obviously ‘unjustified’ relative to where  economic factors that typically explain currency moves over the business cycle  would place it -- especially given the 11% move we have seen so far. However, a  similar percentage overvaluation is found for the trade-weighted exchange rate.  To achieve this trade-weighted decline during a period of broad-based US Dollar  strength points to somewhat larger short-term downside risks for NZD/$ beyond  the two-to-five big figures discussed directly above.

3. Going forward, we view the short-run risks to the Kiwi Dollar as tilted to  the downside. This is based on two offsetting factors: First, while the New  Zealand growth outlook has recently moderated from high levels (our CAI has  fallen to 2.9%yoy from a peak of 4.9%yoy in February), we expect dairy prices to  eventually recoup some of their losses from current levels. As we have argued elsewhere,  we expect the China dairy inventory drawdown to slow and the decline in Chinese  dairy production to draw in the direction of higher dairy prices. Admittedly,  the most recent Fonterra auction saw prices fall a further 7%, so there is  limited evidence of stabilisation at this stage. But international prices are  now well below where we would judge marginal production costs would put them.  While milk prices are difficult to forecast precisely, our model suggests a 10%  recovery in milk prices would be worth up to a 3% appreciation in NZD/$. Second,  in contrast after 100bp of tightening, the RBNZ curve has recently repriced  lower: the relative weakening of the growth and inflation outlook has pushed  down market expectations of RBNZ hikes by about 35-40bp over the next year,  driving forecasts of the next rate hike close to the expected date of the Fed  lift-off. Combining this with the RBNZ’s surprising eagerness to talk down the  exchange rate, the environment does not look overly conducive to a rapid  bounce-back in the Kiwi Dollar on the back of rising commodity prices. Add to  that our expectation of continued broad-based USD strength, coupled with  uncertainty about the growth outlook for China and New Zealand, the distribution  of risks are tilted to the downside.

4. While the above framework demonstrates that the current level of the NZD  may be closer to “justifiable”, the “unsustainable” label – i.e., the exchange  rate is overvalued relative to where it would be expected to settle when  shorter-term business cycle factors have dissipated – appears reasonable.  Indeed, our longer-term end-2017 forecast of 0.63 for NZD/$ is a reflection of  this view. Exhibits 4 and 5 show that, relative to our preferred GSDEER metric  and based on purchasing power calculations and the Peterson Institutes’  FEER estimates, the Kiwi Dollar appears substantially overvalued (by on  average 16%). Our longer-term end-2017 forecast sees a gradual normalization of  the terms-of-trade as the driving force behind a correction of this  overvaluation. But we also believe that a weaker relative productivity trend and  higher inflation should contribute to this expected decline. The speed with  which we approach our longer-term forecast will, in particular, depend on how  far milk prices recover in the short run. It is worth noting that Prime Minister  Key recently mentioned in a speech that ‘the desirable level’ for NZD/$ is close  to 0.65 – not far from our end-2017 forecast and equal to our GSDEER fair value  estimate.

5. The 19% additional depreciation we envisage over the longer term in NZD/$  is, clearly, large – even by historical standards. But, as Exhibit 6 shows, it  is far from unprecedented. This time around, however, the drivers behind our  expected decline are different. Previous incidents of large historical  depreciation have – with the exception of the Great Financial Crisis – been  episodes where New Zealand yields have fallen in tandem with US yields and  terms-of-trade have softened only moderately. All of the large declines in  Exhibit 6 were associated with periods of global recession or crisis as well as  negative domestic growth. In contrast, over the longer run we expect a  pronounced weakening of the terms-of-trade and a normalisation of the interest  rate premium offered by New Zealand assets based on relatively stronger US  growth to drive Kiwi weaker. The additional 19% downside we expect in NZD/$  should be seen in the context of a 16% appreciation of the USD against the G10  through to end-2017.

Alexandre Kohlhas, George Cole, Philip Borkin, Robin Brooks, Fiona Lake  and Michael Cahill

作者: 寻金 时间: 2014-10-7 15:35:26

唉。国家党太能折腾了。一个弹丸之地，又在天涯海角，要和中国挨着保准你新西兰富的流油，但。。太远喽。就离澳洲近，澳洲现在都自身难保了，你还想用房地产把新西兰经济折腾起来。步子大看你扯不扯到蛋。

作者: alicexing 时间: 2014-10-7 15:45:07

不要看新西兰当地什么报道,都是华人自己写的文章.
看看英文报道,Financial Times, Wall Street, Goldman Sachs Research, 这些才是最专业,最权威的人士分析的. 他们都是站在高度看全世界的一个客观分析, 新西兰当地人毕竟眼光狭窄,当地移民尤其华裔只觉得奥克兰怎么好,房子永远涨(因为买房的人都觉得自己房子会涨), 汇率永远不会贬.井底之蛙!

作者: crazymouse 时间: 2014-10-7 15:46:33

本帖最后由 crazymouse 于 2014-10-7 14:48 编辑

2017 年。。。。。工党上去。。。。然后nzd大跌看来最近的汇率比较稳定了。。。。。

作者: brucewqh 时间: 2014-10-7 15:58:33

如果汇率跌倒对人民币4以下，那么房子价格肯定也会相应跌的，加上汇率的下跌，房价下跌的幅度可能会更大，不知道这样说，是否合理？

作者: walker123 时间: 2014-10-7 16:08:08

brucewqh 发表于 2014-10-7 14:58
如果汇率跌倒对人民币4以下，那么房子价格肯定也会相应跌的，加上汇率的下跌，房价下跌的幅度可能会更大， ...

合理

作者: alicexing 时间: 2014-10-7 16:09:33

对,到时候是双杀, 汇率房价齐跌, 到时新西兰受中国和澳洲经济影响,经济都不好了,还有什么移民有钱投资买房, 现在的新移民等到呆了2年后,新西兰都找不到工作,移民也会回去的.
澳洲财长已经承认澳洲房产bubble了,

作者: alicexing 时间: 2014-10-7 16:09:56

对,到时候是双杀, 汇率房价齐跌, 到时新西兰受中国和澳洲经济影响,经济都不好了,还有什么移民有钱投资买房, 现在的新移民等到呆了2年后,新西兰都找不到工作,移民也会回去的.
澳洲财长已经承认澳洲房产bubble了,

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-10-7 16:18:20

呵呵，高盛就这么灵光啊。如果它这么厉害也就不会在2007-08年在证券及主要市场投资大幅亏损，也不会有2012年它的资深执行董事格雷格.史密斯揭露高盛靠蒙骗客户赚钱。

雷曼兄弟在倒闭之前那也是华尔街叱咤风云的一员，结果呢？

我无意争辩，我们可以两年之内看看，高盛的预言是否成真。

作者: 楼主 时间: 2014-10-7 16:18:47

强帖留名，两年后再看，求崩盘抄底Queen Street。

作者: acstar 时间: 2014-10-7 16:31:30

原文链接？

作者: alicexing 时间: 2014-10-7 16:42:02

本帖最后由 alicexing 于 2014-10-7 15:49 编辑

原文链接是一个在华尔街做投资的朋友发来的.
这些文章只有在内部公司系统才能看到包括financial times等, 只给公司顶级客户参考的.
只有进入专门大客户资料库的资格的才能看. 需要每年付费的

作者: 大师致富 时间: 2014-10-7 16:44:19

想什么呢？

作者: alicexing 时间: 2014-10-7 16:55:23

回复9楼: 高盛是在2008年金融危机中损失最小的美国投行. 他在大部分人还未察觉之前已减少了相关头寸. 不得不赞这种先见之明的能力.

像高盛,大摩这些知名公司聚集了全世界最精英的投资分析银行家,至少知识和信息来源比在新西兰这个孤岛上的人要多, 做这一行的新西兰精英都跑到美国, 英国 ,香港工作了.

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2014-10-7 16:56:04

brucewqh 发表于 2014-10-7 14:58
如果汇率跌倒对人民币4以下，那么房子价格肯定也会相应跌的，加上汇率的下跌，房价下跌的幅度可能会更大， ...

why 不明白逻辑

汇率低，进口贵，有的进口部件成本上升

海外资金进来，抬高物价，包括房子

作者: crazymouse 时间: 2014-10-7 17:24:18

貌似就是2017 美国要达到颠覆新西兰如果没有强力制造业全球农业国的大趋势 2017年经济开始下行 2017年低是个低谷
换句话说在2017年前疯狂吧还有三年时间你们在等什么。。。

作者: xpd2000 时间: 2014-10-7 18:00:07

crazymouse 发表于 2014-10-7 16:24
貌似就是2017 美国要达到颠覆新西兰如果没有强力制造业全球农业国的大趋势 2017年经济开始下行 2017年低是 ...

3年够炒好多回了
大家快快冲进去炒吧

作者: phlip0813 时间: 2014-10-7 19:00:17

提示: 作者被禁止或删除内容自动屏蔽

作者: 平静 时间: 2014-10-7 20:29:51

留名看看，不论经济怎么样，相信有个自住房总比没有房子好

作者: future123 时间: 2014-10-7 20:55:19

love_3_month 发表于 2014-10-7 15:56
why 不明白逻辑

汇率低，进口贵，有的进口部件成本上升

想得简单了

作者: 流落他乡 时间: 2014-10-7 21:04:47

高盛,呵呵呵...
要不楼主找找以前高盛的各种预测看看.

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2014-10-7 21:16:50

future123 发表于 2014-10-7 19:55
想得简单了

难道汇率和房价始终是同向波动的么，不懂啊，怎么个理论呢

作者: 肉肉妈 时间: 2014-10-7 21:31:33

怎么把这个给透出来了，anyway，m明年年中有风险，当心吧，想风险小有三大要点：校区，校区和校区。

哈哈

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-10-7 22:38:07

哎呀呀，摩拳擦掌等崩盘

作者: walker123 时间: 2014-10-7 22:47:16

高盛玩儿的高级黑。

作者: walker123 时间: 2014-10-7 22:49:11

love_3_month 发表于 2014-10-7 20:16
难道汇率和房价始终是同向波动的么，不懂啊，怎么个理论呢

没什么理论，50%靠手气 50%靠运气。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2014-10-8 00:05:56

平静发表于 2014-10-7 19:29
留名看看，不论经济怎么样，相信有个自住房总比没有房子好

自住房的投资价值中很大一部分就是抗通胀。

作者: xpd2000 时间: 2014-10-8 07:48:35

完全没考虑中国因素啊，敢跌到4？买房的钱立刻把纽币淹没。。。。

作者: quad5 时间: 2014-10-8 09:12:02

Lease 发表于 2014-10-7 15:18
呵呵，高盛就这么灵光啊。如果它这么厉害也就不会在2007-08年在证券及主要市场投资大幅亏损，也不会有20 ...

wait n see.

作者: acstar 时间: 2014-10-8 09:17:17

房价汇率并没有想象的绝对相关性，但房价在涨的时候汇率降往往会继续推高房价，因为可以两头赚钱；相反的，房价快到头和或者已经在跌了，汇率也跌往往就会助推房价跌，因为不想两头受罪。所以关键还是房价自己到啥阶段了的问题，觉得高盛比羊们还是聪明点的。

作者: 经济学人 时间: 2014-10-8 09:37:07

新西兰迟早步澳洲的后尘

作者: 吃菜的小猪 时间: 2014-10-8 09:42:58

奥克兰的房价跌我觉得不大可能，只是会在一定阶段不涨就是了，上次经济危机的时候也没见房价实实在在的过跌，只是放出来的盘少了，成交量少了，我觉得再来这么一次还是会这样的，所以要是自住的话还是越早买越好，那种纯投资炒房的只要现在入市，到了2017年你们所谓的崩盘，他还是会赚钱的。这么多年我就没见过谁买卖房子到头来还赔钱的，除非就是经济实力不行还非的买房，到了经济危机高房贷利率扛不住还不起钱才卖，这样他也不想也不会标价比自己买的价格低。

作者: txty 时间: 2014-10-8 09:57:15

alicexing 发表于 2014-10-7 15:42
原文链接是一个在华尔街做投资的朋友发来的.
这些文章只有在内部公司系统才能看到包括financial times等, ...

所谓内部报告既然能发到这里，就证明是不值一钱的

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-10-8 11:05:11

love_3_month 发表于 2014-10-7 20:16
难道汇率和房价始终是同向波动的么，不懂啊，怎么个理论呢

这种东西没什么理论不理论的。08年美国爆发金融风暴，美元被打到低点同时美国的房价也一落千丈。与美元有联系汇率的的港币这几年也一直处于低位，但同一时期香港楼价却创下历史新高。

同样前几年澳币高企都贵过了美元，现在只有0.88，但澳洲房价又大幅上涨。

所以这种投行的分析书生味太浓，没有什么实际价值。

作者: matm 时间: 2014-10-8 11:33:19

Lease 发表于 2014-10-8 10:05
这种东西没什么理论不理论的。08年美国爆发金融风暴，美元被打到低点同时美国的房价也一落千丈。与美元有 ...

不是太书生，是故意黑人自己从中获利，高升可是连自己客户都坑的主

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-10-8 11:46:38

matm 发表于 2014-10-8 10:33
不是太书生，是故意黑人自己从中获利，高升可是连自己客户都坑的主

+++++++++1

作者: KaiWenZHAO 时间: 2014-10-8 23:13:40

啊呀你们这么厉害，那到底会不会继续跌？？？

作者: feelingo 时间: 2014-10-9 16:15:52

屁咧，今天涨那么多。

作者: 我行我素我酷 时间: 2014-10-9 16:28:47

本帖最后由我行我素我酷于 2014-10-9 15:35 编辑

alicexing 发表于 2014-10-7 14:45
不要看新西兰当地什么报道,都是华人自己写的文章.
看看英文报道,Financial Times, Wall Street, Goldman S ...

你错了，哥们，这些人才是大忽悠呢，你如果经常看高盛的预测，笑掉大牙，不准的太多了，有名的反向指标。。。
2012年高盛表示，黄金当前的价格周期可能在明年出现逆转，因实质利率会在经济成长改善的情况下走高，抵销美国联邦储备理事会(FED)可能进一步放宽政策的影响。高盛将3个月、6个月、12个月金价预估分别调降至每盎司1825美元、1805美元、1800美元。高盛预估2014年金价将在每盎司1750美元，这意味着金价的涨势可能放缓。而在2012年5月份高盛发布12个月价格预估时，预计金价将达1940美元。2013年1月21日高盛表示，重申给予黄金每盎司1825美元的3个月目标位，建议投资者可以押注看涨黄金，并预期随着美国经济反弹，下半年金价会走低。

高盛坚定看空金价始于今年4月17日。高盛奥尼尔表示，黄金长线已经见顶，金价也许会从周一低点暂时反弹，但如果进一步遭到抛售，他不会感到意外。高盛的分析师则表示，最新公布的黄金交易所交易基金的持仓量表明，多头在加速平仓，这表明黄金市场的抛盘已经蔓延至期货市场之外，黄金可能继续走低。

　　在“旗手”高盛唱空之后，各大投行紧紧跟随，纷纷发出唱空黄金的言论。而在6月份，高盛连续两次发出唱空黄金的声音。

　　6月11日高盛的分析报告认为，金价3个月内将回升至每盎司1530美元，但一年后的目标价则是1390美元。仅隔不到两周，6月24日高盛再次下调了今年与明年金价预测。该行预计今年年底时金价将在每盎司1300美元，较其此前预测低9.4%。高盛还将2014年底的金价预测下调了17.3%，至每盎司1050美元。高盛表示，由于金价下跌会导致黄金生产商减少产量，因为金价的长期支撑位在每盎司1200美元附近。　　有业内人士指出，高盛在6月内关于黄金市场的预测，有如“捣浆糊”。其认为未来3个月金价将回升到1530美元，但在仅仅不到半个月的6月24日，又认为明年金价将下跌至1050美元。尽管时间看似不同，但在这不到半个月的时间内，其对金价预期的修正未免差距太大。更有专家直指高盛唱空金价是一场阴谋。

作者: mandy138 时间: 2014-10-9 19:04:36

自住房就不怕跌了？现在一百万买的，首付20万，要付80万借贷产生的利息，房价真大跌，到50万，看着自己还要还那么多的利息，我相信也不会那么踏实吧！

作者: aruther 时间: 2014-10-10 10:43:56

这种报告都是大学毕业生也有可能是实习生熬夜写出来的。。。没什么大用的

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