新西兰天维网社区

标题: 2014年大選的一些看點 [打印本页]

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 10:07:43 标题: 2014年大選的一些看點

本帖最后由宽版于 2014-9-19 14:49 编辑

1. 保守黨的支持率能否超過5%。如果越過這個門檻，國家黨三連任基本有了保障，但霍建強重返國會將受到拖累，因為工黨必須騰出一個席位給保守黨；如果保守黨功虧一簣，優先黨將起到組成政府的決定作用，霍建強再入國會也因此受益。
2. 行動黨能否在Epsom選區勝出影片重大。雖然民調顯示對行動黨有利，商業機機的預測結果是Epsom – ACT 87%，但選舉結果有時會出人意料，不可大意。行動黨黨票的多少還決定能否幫助黨魁進入國會，只要得票率達到1.2%他就有希望。如果保守黨得票率到不了5％，行動黨也因此將受益，Jamie Whyte進入國會更容易。
3. 工黨的得票率很關鍵。雖然康立夫已經表示，即使輸掉大選也不會辭職，但是，如果工黨的得票率太低，恐怕他想繼續擔當黨魁也難做到。工黨得票多少也決定霍建強能否進入國會。
三個毛利選區的結果對國家黨三連任產生影響。Te Tai Hauāuru.，Te Tai Tokerau，Waiariki.
4. 以下選區最有可能出現意外。
1. Port Hills – National and Labour both 50%
2. Palmerston North – Labour 55%
3. Te Tai Hauauru – Labour 60%
4. Waimakariri – National 62%
5. Hutt South – Labour 69%
6. Te Atatu – Labour 69%
7. Tamaki Makaurau – Labour 69%
8. Te Tai Tokerau – Mana 70%（對工黨來說意義不大，唯一看頭是最有可能成為未來毛利裔总理的Daivs有沒有可能站穩腳跟）
9. Ohariu – United Future 75%
10. Christchurch Central – Labour 75%
11. Hamilton East – National 80%
12. Waiariki – Maori 82%
13. Maungakiekie – National 83%
14. Napier – Labour 85%
15. Wairarapa – National 85%
16. Epsom – ACT 87%
過去不到２４小時出爐了三個最新民調(電視一台．英文先驅報，stuff網站)，也是大選前最後的民調結果顯示, 國家黨的平均支持率為47%;工黨25.5%;保守黨3.95%。

個人的預測:
國家黨的得票率不會超過47%。德國富豪拋出的空彈讓國家黨順利度過了最難挨的一周，選前民調中支持率的下滑將刺激支持者出來投票。如果週一下雨，國家黨會占更多一點小便宜。
工黨的得票率最有可能在25%左右。支持者的信心危機持續，失去投票興趣者增多，得票率比上一次下探並不讓人感到奇怪。
綠黨得票率可能接近13%。工黨支持率低迷推高了這個左翼小黨的得票率。
優先黨的得票率上探8%。
彼特斯老謀深算，持續打種族牌見效。由於彼特斯選前將話說絕，他可能無法加入國家黨或工黨政府中，最有可能是仿傚澳洲Clive Palmer的做法，坐中間席位。
保守黨得票率過不了5%。
政治秘書的辭被媒體炒得沸沸揚揚，保守黨可能就差那一點點。平心而論，保守黨如果過了5%，國家黨三連任就容易許多，彼特斯的重要性也隨之減弱。
行動黨得票率低於1%。
右翼選民對國家黨的選情有危機感，自動放棄行動黨，轉投保守黨的效應明顯。
互聯網和麻納黨的得票率超過1%。
選前宣傳炒作成功，得票率有可能接近2%。
毛利黨得票率1%以下。
在工黨和麻納黨的夾擊下，毛利黨得票率低不可避免。
大選最後一周，各政黨拉票的重點開始微妙的變化，左右之間的選票互動可能性很小，最有可能流失的選票是工黨的去到綠黨；國家黨的跑到保守黨和行動黨。國家黨現在緊急呼籲支持者不要分散選票，讓國家黨占據主動地位。.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Projected MPs for 2014 Parliament
Those in bold are not current MPs.
National – 58 seats, 40 electorates, 18 list

Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye
Bay of Plenty – Todd Muller
Botany – Jami-Lee Ross
Clutha-Southland – Todd Barclay
Coromandel – Scott Simpson
East Coast – Anne Tolley
East Coast Bays – Murray McCully
Hamilton East – David Bennett
Hamilton West – Tim Macindoe
Helensville – John Key
Hunua – Andrey Bayly
Ilam – Gerry Brownlee
Invercargill – Sarah Dowie
Kaikoura – Stuart Smith
Maungakiekie – Pesata Sam Lotu-Iiga
Nelson – Nick Smith
New Plymouth – Jonathan Young
Northcote – Jonathan Coleman
Northland – Mike Sabin
North Shore – Maggie Barry
Otaki – Nathan Guy
Pakuranga – Maurice Williamson
Papakua – Judith Collins
Rangitata – Jo Goodhew
Rangitikei – Ian McKelvie
Rodney – Mark Mitchell
Rotorua – Todd McClay
Selwyn – Amy Adams
Tamaki – Simon O’Connor
Taranaki-King Country – Barbara Kuriger
Taupo – Louise Upston
Tauranga – Simon Bridges
Tukituki – Craig Foss
Upper Harbour – Paula Bennett
Waikato – Lindsay Tisch
Waimakariri – Matthew Doocey
Wairarapa – Alastair Scott
Waitaki – Jacqui Dean
Whangarei – Shane Reti
Whanganui – Chester Borrows
List 1 – Bill English
List 2 – David Carter
List 3 – Steven Joyce
List 4 – Hekia Parata
List 5 – Chris Finlayson
List 6 – Tim Groser
List 7 – Michael Woodhouse
List 8 – Nicky Wagner
List 9 – Paul Goldsmith
List 10 – Melissa Lee
List 11 – Kanwal Bakshi
List 12 – Jian Yang
List 13 – Alfred Ngaro
List 14 – Brett Hudson
List 15 – Paul Foster-Bell
List 16 – Jo Hayes
List 17 – Parmjeet Parmar
List 18 – Chris Bishop

Labour – 32 seats, 27 electorates, 5 list

Christchurch Central – Tony Milne
Christchurch East – Poto Williams
Dunedin North – David Clark
Dunedin South – Clare Curran
Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta
Hutt South – Trevor Mallard
Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Meka Whaitiri
Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni
Mana – Kris Faafoi
Mangere – Su’a William Sio
Manukau East – Jenny Salesa
Manurewa – Louisa Wall
Mt Albert – David Shearer
Mt Roskill – Phil Goff
Napier – Stuart Nash
New Lynn – David Cunliffe
Palmerston North – Iain Lees-Galloway
Port Hills – Ruth Dyson
Rimutaka – Chris Hipkins
Rongotai – Annette King
Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare
Te Atatu – Phil Twyford
Te Tai Hauauru – Adrian Rurawhe
Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene
West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor
Wellington Central – Grant Robertson
Wigram – Megan Woods
List 1 – David Parker
List 2 – Jacinda Ardern
List 3 – Clayton Cosgrove
List 4 – Sue Moroney
List 5 – Andrew Little

Greens – 16 seats, 16 list

List 1 – Metiria Turei
List 2 – Russel Norman
List 3 – Kevin Hague
List 4 – Eugenie Sage
List 5 – Gareth Hughes
List 6 – Catherine Delahunty
List 7 – Kennedy Graham
List 8 – Julie Anne Genter
List 9 – Mojo Mathers
List 10 – Jan Logie
List 11 – David Clendon
List 12 – James Shaw
List 13 – Denise Roche
List 14 – Steffan Browning
List 15 – Marama Davidson
List 16 – Barry Coates

NZ First – 10 seats, 10 list

List 1 – Winston Peters
List 2 – Tracey Martin
List 3 – Richard Prosser
List 4 – Fletcher Tabuteau
List 5 – Barbara Stewart
List 6 – Clayton Mitchell
List 7 – Denis O’Rourke
List 8 – Pita Paraone
List 9 – Ron Mark
List 10 – Darroch Ball

Internet Mana – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

Te Tai Tokerau – Hone Harawira
List 1 – Laila Harre

Maori Party – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell
List 1 – Marama Fox

ACT – 1 seat, 1 electorate

Epsom – David Seymour

United Future – 1 seat, 1 electorate

Ohariu – Peter Dunne

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Felix Marwick writes on his predictions:

Party Vote.

National: 45-47%

Labour: 24-26%

Greens: 11-13%

New Zealand First: 7-9%

Conservatives to miss the 5% MMP threshold.

Internet Mana to poll under 2%

ACT and United Future to both be under 1%

Electorates:

National to win Palmerston North.

Labour to win Napier, Christchurch Central, Tamaki Makaurau, and possibly Waimakariri

Internet Mana to hold Te Tai Tokerau (just)

Maori Party to hold Waiariki and Te Tai Hauauru.

Possible surprises results/seats to watch: Port Hills, Hutt South.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2014 election polls

This table shows the last five polls from the five public pollsters. The average is shown, as is the weighted average (which takes into account recency and size).

作者: John.G 时间: 2014-9-19 10:14:49

为什么周一下雨国家党会占便宜呢？

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 10:32:25

John.G 发表于 2014-9-19 09:14
为什么周一下雨国家党会占便宜呢？

根據以往的經驗，氣候變化最容易左右的是低收入階層的選民，這些人投票意願本身就不強，再加上這次工黨支持率低迷，更會受到影響。
綠黨的支持者投票意願最強，這些人多數是以環保理念支撐對綠黨的信任。
左翼上台要抽富人的血，這些有錢人害怕綠黨大幅加稅，一定會出來投票。
中產階層最關心的是未來三年的生活，左翼聯盟承諾太多，未來國家開支增大，最後羊毛出在羊身上，必將引起這些人的擔心。

作者: 就爱聊 时间: 2014-9-19 12:13:15

宽版发表于 2014-9-19 09:32
根據以往的經驗，氣候變化最容易左右的是低收入階層的選民，這些人投票意願本身就不強，再加上這次工黨支 ...

你是说周六下雨？

作者: 微苦蓝山 时间: 2014-9-19 12:20:52

本帖最后由微苦蓝山于 2014-9-19 11:21 编辑

看我的帖子，我和你的判斷基本一樣。。。

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 12:45:46

微苦蓝山发表于 2014-9-19 11:20
看我的帖子，我和你的判斷基本一樣。。。

幸会幸會...

作者: 现在登录1 时间: 2014-9-19 14:19:42

周六下雨？

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 14:57:08

Projected MPs for 2014 Parliament
Those in bold are not current MPs.
National – 58 seats, 40 electorates, 18 list

Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye
Bay of Plenty – Todd Muller
Botany – Jami-Lee Ross
Clutha-Southland – Todd Barclay
Coromandel – Scott Simpson
East Coast – Anne Tolley
East Coast Bays – Murray McCully
Hamilton East – David Bennett
Hamilton West – Tim Macindoe
Helensville – John Key
Hunua – Andrey Bayly
Ilam – Gerry Brownlee
Invercargill – Sarah Dowie
Kaikoura – Stuart Smith
Maungakiekie – Pesata Sam Lotu-Iiga
Nelson – Nick Smith
New Plymouth – Jonathan Young
Northcote – Jonathan Coleman
Northland – Mike Sabin
North Shore – Maggie Barry
Otaki – Nathan Guy
Pakuranga – Maurice Williamson
Papakua – Judith Collins
Rangitata – Jo Goodhew
Rangitikei – Ian McKelvie
Rodney – Mark Mitchell
Rotorua – Todd McClay
Selwyn – Amy Adams
Tamaki – Simon O’Connor
Taranaki-King Country – Barbara Kuriger
Taupo – Louise Upston
Tauranga – Simon Bridges
Tukituki – Craig Foss
Upper Harbour – Paula Bennett
Waikato – Lindsay Tisch
Waimakariri – Matthew Doocey
Wairarapa – Alastair Scott
Waitaki – Jacqui Dean
Whangarei – Shane Reti
Whanganui – Chester Borrows
List 1 – Bill English
List 2 – David Carter
List 3 – Steven Joyce
List 4 – Hekia Parata
List 5 – Chris Finlayson
List 6 – Tim Groser
List 7 – Michael Woodhouse
List 8 – Nicky Wagner
List 9 – Paul Goldsmith
List 10 – Melissa Lee
List 11 – Kanwal Bakshi
List 12 – Jian Yang
List 13 – Alfred Ngaro
List 14 – Brett Hudson
List 15 – Paul Foster-Bell
List 16 – Jo Hayes
List 17 – Parmjeet Parmar
List 18 – Chris Bishop

Labour – 32 seats, 27 electorates, 5 list

Christchurch Central – Tony Milne
Christchurch East – Poto Williams
Dunedin North – David Clark
Dunedin South – Clare Curran
Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta
Hutt South – Trevor Mallard
Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Meka Whaitiri
Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni
Mana – Kris Faafoi
Mangere – Su’a William Sio
Manukau East – Jenny Salesa
Manurewa – Louisa Wall
Mt Albert – David Shearer
Mt Roskill – Phil Goff
Napier – Stuart Nash
New Lynn – David Cunliffe
Palmerston North – Iain Lees-Galloway
Port Hills – Ruth Dyson
Rimutaka – Chris Hipkins
Rongotai – Annette King
Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare
Te Atatu – Phil Twyford
Te Tai Hauauru – Adrian Rurawhe
Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene
West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor
Wellington Central – Grant Robertson
Wigram – Megan Woods
List 1 – David Parker
List 2 – Jacinda Ardern
List 3 – Clayton Cosgrove
List 4 – Sue Moroney
List 5 – Andrew Little

Greens – 16 seats, 16 list

List 1 – Metiria Turei
List 2 – Russel Norman
List 3 – Kevin Hague
List 4 – Eugenie Sage
List 5 – Gareth Hughes
List 6 – Catherine Delahunty
List 7 – Kennedy Graham
List 8 – Julie Anne Genter
List 9 – Mojo Mathers
List 10 – Jan Logie
List 11 – David Clendon
List 12 – James Shaw
List 13 – Denise Roche
List 14 – Steffan Browning
List 15 – Marama Davidson
List 16 – Barry Coates

NZ First – 10 seats, 10 list

List 1 – Winston Peters
List 2 – Tracey Martin
List 3 – Richard Prosser
List 4 – Fletcher Tabuteau
List 5 – Barbara Stewart
List 6 – Clayton Mitchell
List 7 – Denis O’Rourke
List 8 – Pita Paraone
List 9 – Ron Mark
List 10 – Darroch Ball

Internet Mana – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

Te Tai Tokerau – Hone Harawira
List 1 – Laila Harre

Maori Party – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell
List 1 – Marama Fox

ACT – 1 seat, 1 electorate

Epsom – David Seymour

United Future – 1 seat, 1 electorate

Ohariu – Peter Dunne

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 14:58:25

Felix Marwick writes on his predictions:

Party Vote.

National: 45-47%

Labour: 24-26%

Greens: 11-13%

New Zealand First: 7-9%

Conservatives to miss the 5% MMP threshold.

Internet Mana to poll under 2%

ACT and United Future to both be under 1%

Electorates:

National to win Palmerston North.

Labour to win Napier, Christchurch Central, Tamaki Makaurau, and possibly Waimakariri

Internet Mana to hold Te Tai Tokerau (just)

Maori Party to hold Waiariki and Te Tai Hauauru.

Possible surprises results/seats to watch: Port Hills, Hutt South.

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 15:40:29

Three final polls
In the past 12 hours or so three final polls have been released and they all point to the election going down to the wire.

National was 45% in last night’s Colmar Brunton, 48.2% in this morning’s Herald digipoll and in the Stuff Ipsos poll 47.7%.

The comparable figures in these polls last election were CB 50%, HD 50.9% and the last Fairfax poll I can find before the election was 54%.  Remember National’s actual result was 47.3%.  To add to this the momentum is in the wrong way and National is clearly declining.  I would not be surprised if National ends up in the very low 40s.

Labour’s results appear to be stable being 25%, 25.9% and 26.1% respectively.  Results last time were 26%, 28% and 28% which were all close to Labour’s final result but on a low turnout.

The Greens are 12%, 11.4% and 12%.  New Zealand First is comfortably above 5% in all polls and the Conservatives are below 5% in all polls.  Internet Mana is struggling.  Dotcom’s money may have been a curse rather than a benefit.

The Herald commentary by Audrey Young really outdid itself for its obsequious nature.  A marginal change in the voting trend well within the margin of error for National during the period polled has caused Audrey to claim that Key has received a last minute bump in the poll.  You have to read down to the end to realise that National was actually down and Labour up although again within the margin of error.

My prediction is that Labour will get up to about 30%, the Greens will hold 12%, National will be equal pegging, the Conservatives will not make the threshold and it will be all up to Winston who is the next Prime Minister.  This election is going to be decided vote by vote.

And my pick of individual seats to watch with some predictions:

Te Tai Tokerau – Hone or Kelvin?
Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare to win.
Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni to win comfortably.
Maungakiekie – Carol Beaumont may have the edge over Peseta Sam Lotu Iiga
Papakura – Jerome Mike to upset Judith Collins
Rotorua – Tamati Coffey to upset
Napier – Stuart Nash to win
Te Tai Hauauru – will Labour’s Rurawhe win?
Waiariki – I suspect Flavell will hold on.
Christchurch Central – Labour’s Tony Milne to win easily.

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 15:51:28

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 16:50:34

揭开工黨和綠黨伪善的真面目
https://www.facebook.com/trevor.mallard1/posts/621974061248514
https://www.facebook.com/hollywalker82/posts/10152802834857259

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 17:13:11

有本事不上list，就别怕被趕出国会.

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 17:38:59

1.Mallard有本事不上list，就别怕被趕出国会.
2.康立夫和Genter就别大言不慚地指责别人反民主
3.新西蘭选舉从没見過候選人说别投票给我,这個先例开了,这场选舉就热鬧了.

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 18:15:38

从海侖起, 两大党一直都羞羞答答, 这次一脱到底,够干脆.
In 1999 Helen Clark told Labour voters to vote for the Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel. And last election the Greens told their supporters to vote for the Labour candidates in Auckland Central and Ohariu.

哈哈哈哈, 下一次就直接说明得了, 咖啡都免了。

作者: sky-horse 时间: 2014-9-19 19:05:14

本帖最后由 sky-horse 于 2014-9-19 18:12 编辑

如果能按你的预测也算我们华人的成功了。也是最佳局面了。

你这样的预测股计误差就那样一两票对前三个大党来说，但最大的变数就是保守党一旦过5%生死线，将从国家党手中拿走3票，工党2票，绿党1票，大概这样子。那就逼得国家党不得不与保守党联合执政了。

所以华人是绝对不能投保守党的，这才是真正的华人死穴，投了保守党就把华人的命脉交给保守党或老皮党了。

作者: 就爱聊 时间: 2014-9-19 19:30:57

今年的“废票”是不是会多很多？因为有个保守党的4.1%加进来，有Mana的1.2%，再加其他，有6%多了。那每个进去的党每个党能多分1-2个席位了喽，对小党可有意义了。

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-19 21:18:33

就爱聊发表于 2014-9-19 18:30
今年的“废票”是不是会多很多？因为有个保守党的4.1%加进来，有Mana的1.2%，再加其他，有6%多了。那每个进 ...

很有可能。

作者: wgtn_emma 时间: 2014-9-19 23:16:03

如果週一下雨????????????????????????????????哪週一？

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-20 09:26:30

哈哈哈哈,应該是周六.
雨正在下.

作者: John.G 时间: 2014-9-20 09:29:10

宽版发表于 2014-9-20 08:26
哈哈哈哈,应該是周六.
雨正在下.

这大风大雨的还真的不想出去

作者: 恩赐13 时间: 2014-9-20 14:35:39

赶紧去投票咯!

作者: lala80 时间: 2014-9-20 18:12:51

能问个让人白眼儿的问题吗？啥时选举结果能揭晓？

作者: sky-horse 时间: 2014-9-20 18:15:01

lala80 发表于 2014-9-20 17:12
能问个让人白眼儿的问题吗？啥时选举结果能揭晓？

今晚，一般计票到11点后就已经知道大概结果了。

作者: lala80 时间: 2014-9-20 19:55:09

sky-horse 发表于 2014-9-20 17:15
今晚，一般计票到11点后就已经知道大概结果了。

3Q阿！！！！

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-20 22:52:16

John.G 发表于 2014-9-20 08:29
这大风大雨的还真的不想出去

今天一早在投票站工作時，身旁一位kiwi工作人員向我表示，這麼大雨，國家黨鐵定贏了。

作者: 宽版 时间: 2014-9-21 08:12:36

就爱聊发表于 2014-9-19 18:30
今年的“废票”是不是会多很多？因为有个保守党的4.1%加进来，有Mana的1.2%，再加其他，有6%多了。那每个进 ...

你预測对了。

作者: herox5 时间: 2014-9-21 18:53:37

宽版发表于 2014-9-19 09:32
根據以往的經驗，氣候變化最容易左右的是低收入階層的選民，這些人投票意願本身就不強，再加上這次工黨支 ...

李菊福

欢迎光临新西兰天维网社区 (http://bbs.skykiwi.com/)