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标题: Current Auckland Property Demand & Supply [打印本页]

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-6-19 11:12:26 标题: Current Auckland Property Demand & Supply

This is true fundamental.

Surging migration means demand for housing in Auckland will outstrip supply by a considerable margin Posted in Property June 18, 2014 - 03:21pm, Greg Ninness

Auckland could be about to face one of its worst housing shortages in more than 10 years due to the current surge in migration.

Population and building consent figures suggest construction of new homes in the Auckland region has not kept pace with its burgeoning population since 2005, but as the region’s population growth accelerates, the housing shortage could be about to take a turn for the worse.

The accompanying table shows the Auckland Region’s population growth from 2004 to 2013, as estimated by Statistics NZ.
It shows that from 2005 to 2013, Auckland’s overall population growth has been reasonably consistent, at about 20,000 to 25,000 new residents a year.

But that could be about to blow out to about 42,000 new residents a year if current migration trends continue, increasing the pressure on the region’s already tight housing supply.

Census data suggests that the average household size in Auckland has been between 3 and 3.1 residents per dwelling over the last decade

Assuming an average household occupancy of 3.1, there would need to be 8065 new dwellings added to its housing stock for every 25,000 new residents.

The last time the supply of new dwellings exceeded the region’s population growth was 2004 - 2005, but that was driven by the shoebox apartment building boom in the CBD.

Building consent figures suggest that the supply of new homes has been falling woefully short of what has been needed since 2006, when the region’s population grew by an estimated 24,100, which using average occupancy of 3.1 people per household, would have required an additional 7,774 homes.

But only 7,250 new dwellings were consented during that period, leaving a shortfall of 524 homes.

That shortfall got bigger every year and peaked at 4,380 homes in the year to June 2011, before dropping back in 2012 (shortfall 2771 homes) and 2013 (shortfall 1,689 homes) as building activity rose to meet demand.

Those shortfalls are significant because until the supply of homes starts to exceed demand again, they are cumulative.

Equivalent of Hawke's Bay population added to Auckland in 7 years

From June 2006 to June 2013 the region’s population is estimated to have increased by 156,400, roughly equivalent to the entire population of Hawke's Bay, including the cities of Napier and Hastings.

To accommodate all those extra people, 50,451 new homes should have been built, but between June 2006 and June 2013 only 32,352 new dwellings were consented in Auckland, leaving an accumulated shortfall of 18,189 homes.

The figures for the 12 months to June this year are not yet available, but if the trends until April this year continue until the end of this month, Auckland’s housing shortfall could have ballooned out 24,943 homes, largely due to a surge in migration numbers.

It is often assumed that overseas migration is the main contributor to Auckland’s explosive population growth but that’s not the case.

Statistics NZ estimates that from 2011 to 2013, the region’s population gains from net external migration (the difference the number of people arriving from overseas to live in the region and those departing to live overseas) accounted for about a quarter of its growth. The rest was due to internal migration (people moving to Auckland from other parts of the country) and the region’s natural increase in its population (the extent to which births exceed deaths). But in the 12 months to June this year, growth from migration is likely to be much higher.

That’s because in the year to April, the latest period for which figures are available, the national net migration gain was 34,366, compared with just 4776 in the previous 12 months, caused by a 13.3% rise in the number of immigrants coming to this country, and a 21.8% decrease in the number of people leaving to live elsewhere.

Auckland is by far the biggest destination for migrants coming to this country, and Statistics NZ estimated that two thirds of the net population gain from migration in the year to June 2013 occurred in Auckland.

If that figure holds true for the current year, Auckland could be looking at a net increase in its population from migration of 25,500 in the year to June, a near five fold increase on the figure for the previous 12 months.

And if internal migration and the natural increase in the region’s population continue at previous level, the region’s total population could have increased by about 42,000 by the end of this month, compared with a year earlier, equivalent to the population of Wanganui.

Housing that many people comfortably would require around 13,548 new homes to be built and although residential building activity in Auckland has been steadily increasing, the current rate of construction is nowhere near enough to meet such a big surge in demand.

Shortfall of 25k homes since 2005
If the rate of residential building consents issued up until April continues, it’s likely that only around 6,794 dwelling consents will have been issued in the year to June, leaving a shortfall for the year of 6,754 dwellings and taking the accumulated shortfall since 2005 to about 25,000 homes.

That ongoing shortfall between supply and demand is probably the main reason that house prices in Auckland have so far largely resisted the onslaught the residential mortgage Loan to Valuation restrictions the Reserve Bank introduced last year, and more recently the impact of rising mortgage interest rates, while prices in most other major centres except Christchurch, have been flat or falling.

The figures will give anyone renting or looking to buy a home in Auckland little to cheer about because the surge in demand is likely to, at the every least, support currently high property prices and rental levels and has the potential to push them higher.
But property developers, landlords and people who already own a home will be laughing because the increased demand and limited supply could lift the value of existing homes and increase their owners’ equity, and landlords will be buoyed by the prospect of improved rental yields and equity levels.

However finding additional properties to add to their portfolios at prices that could provide an adequate return could become more difficult, because in the current market cycle, property prices have tended to rise faster than rents.

Housing Supply & Demand
Auckland Region
Year to June	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014*
Estimated population	1,326m	1,349m	1,373m	1,396m	1,417m	1,439m	1,462m	1,486m	1,508m	1,529m	1,571m
Annual increase	28,400	22,900	24,100	23,100	20,700	21,800	23,300	24,100	21,600	21,800	42,000
New dwellings required**	9,161	7,387	7,774	7,451	6,677	7,032	7,516	7,774	6,968	7,032	13,548
New dwelling consents	12,937	9,435	7,250	6,781	5,769	3,212	3,656	3,394	4,197	5,343	6,794
surplus /deficit	3,776	2,048	-524	-670	-908	-3,820	-3,860	-4,380	-2,771	-1,689	-6,754

Net migration to Auckland	12,150	6,814	7,753	8,319	6,134	8,611	8,805	6,220	5,079	5,286	25,500
Dwellings required for migrants**	3,919	2,198	2,501	2,684	1,979	2,778	2,840	2,006	1,638	1,705	8,225

*Year to June 2014 figures are indicative forecasts by interest.co.nz, based on migration and building consent data to April.
** Assumes one new dwelling required for every 3.1 extra people.
Source of data: Statistics NZ.

作者: onetreehill1 时间: 2014-6-19 11:22:06

沙发，对于有房阶或者要卖房的人是好消息，对于要买房的人是坏消息。一句话：买房要抓紧买，卖房可以再等等

作者: drdeer 时间: 2014-6-19 11:24:29

这是好消息，人口达到一定密度，各种公共设施可以上一个台阶

啥时候奥克兰市区到近郊的铁路转到地下，就成为发达大都市了

作者: LYYX 时间: 2014-6-19 11:51:19

数据说明问题：后悔已来不及了，那就立即买房！该下手时就下手---不然是否又要损失$289/day(北岸）？

作者: songinator 时间: 2014-6-19 11:53:47

drdeer 发表于 2014-6-19 10:24
这是好消息，人口达到一定密度，各种公共设施可以上一个台阶

啥时候奥克兰市区到近郊的铁路转到地下，就 ...

真的什么时候奥克兰有地铁了就是发达城市了

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-6-19 11:59:04

LYYX 发表于 2014-6-19 10:51
数据说明问题：后悔已来不及了，那就立即买房！该下手时就下手---不然是否又要损失$289/day(北岸）？

所以投资房产要看大方向，比如，现在是不是牛市，如果是，那么支持这牛市的基本因素是否依然存在，比如，demand>supply, 经济指标指示经济在持续向好，人口增长依然强劲，如果这些因素都在，那么买进就是正确的选择。纠结于短期的市场状况和预测未来短短几个月房价是升是跌意义不大。

作者: songinator 时间: 2014-6-19 12:01:30

Lease 发表于 2014-6-19 10:59
所以投资房产要看大方向，比如，现在是不是牛市，如果是，那么支持这牛市的基本因素是否依然存在，比如， ...

顶。。。。

作者: onetreehill1 时间: 2014-6-19 12:03:18

买进就是正确的选择。纠结于短期的市场状况和预测未来短短几个月房价是升是跌意义不大。+++++1

作者: 寻金 时间: 2014-6-19 16:12:07

28,400
22,900
24,100
23,100
20,700
21,800
23,300
24,100
21,600
21,800
42,000

这数据你信？奥克兰是刚被发现的新大陆？呵呵。继续拿着别卖，市面上现有的房都收囊中。买了就赚。一年后各各都是亿万富翁。之前不还有数据好多区都停涨了。赶紧买啊。哈哈

作者: cath 时间: 2014-6-19 16:16:08

市区公寓即将大量建成会有什么影响呢？

作者: songinator 时间: 2014-6-19 16:23:38

寻金发表于 2014-6-19 15:12
28,400
22,900
24,100

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_ ... ulation-change.aspx

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-6-19 16:53:37

寻金发表于 2014-6-19 15:12
28,400
22,900
24,100

这有什么不信的？奥克兰每年人口增加约2万5千人，现在人口1百50万，再过20年达到约2百万。与统计局的预测和统计相差无几啊。

作者: songinator 时间: 2014-6-19 16:54:30

Lease 发表于 2014-6-19 15:53
这有什么不信的？奥克兰每年人口增加约2万5千人，现在人口1百50万，再过20年达到约2百万。与统计局的 ...

他还活在梦想中

作者: Venox10111 时间: 2014-6-19 16:55:02

Lease 发表于 2014-6-19 15:53
这有什么不信的？奥克兰每年人口增加约2万5千人，现在人口1百50万，再过20年达到约2百万。与统计局的 ...

是啊，这又不是中国统计局，呵呵。。。

作者: 寻金 时间: 2014-6-19 18:07:57

Lease 发表于 2014-6-19 15:53
这有什么不信的？奥克兰每年人口增加约2万5千人，现在人口1百50万，再过20年达到约2百万。与统计局的 ...

我是说最后一组数据。呵呵。是的有些人就是活在梦里。呵呵。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-6-19 18:12:21

寻金发表于 2014-6-19 17:07
我是说最后一组数据。呵呵。是的有些人就是活在梦里。呵呵。

最后一组数据是Dwellings required for migrants，有什么问题呢?

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-6-19 20:08:59

Lease 发表于 2014-6-19 17:12
最后一组数据是Dwellings required for migrants，有什么问题呢?

TA是说从21800跳到42000，可能是觉得太夸张。

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-8-21 13:40:05

寻金发表于 2014-6-19 17:07
我是说最后一组数据。呵呵。是的有些人就是活在梦里。呵呵。

今年到7月份为止已经4W1了，看来到年底要超过4W2不是很难哦

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/7 ... uk-biggest-migratio

Net migration hit an 11 year high in July and looks set to surge to new record highs later this year as New Zealanders come home from Australia and more students arrive on working visas.

Economists said the stronger-than-expected figures suggested net migration was headed for 50,000, which would be well above the scenarios used by the Reserve Bank and Treasury in warning of higher interest rates.

Statistics New Zealand reported seasonally adjusted net migration of 4,540 in July, which was the highest monthly figure since the 4,700 that arrived in February 2003.

This took annual net migration to 41,000, which was the highest net gain since the 41,200 seen in the year to August 2003. It was up from net migration of 10,600 in the previous year to July 2013.
.....

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-21 14:00:07

NewLynnHse 发表于 2014-8-21 12:40
今年到7月份为止已经4W1了，看来到年底要超过4W2不是很难哦

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/71576/ne ...

小老鼠把我这个老帖翻出来啦，呵呵。

所以，各位其实都不用再争到底现在该不该买房。这强烈的需求摆在这儿了。

作者: 寻金 时间: 2014-8-21 23:34:21

NewLynnHse 发表于 2014-8-21 12:40
今年到7月份为止已经4W1了，看来到年底要超过4W2不是很难哦

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/71576/ne ...

u believe wat u believe.照着这个样子发展的话，马上就很多人睡大街了。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-22 09:26:16

寻金发表于 2014-8-21 22:34
u believe wat u believe.照着这个样子发展的话，马上就很多人睡大街了。

这不是你信不信的问题，这是个不争的事实。如果你连事实都不信的话，那么我也只能无语了。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2014-8-22 11:52:53

凡事不要说太绝，留点余地。论坛里整天一群人嚷嚷什么房价必升或房价必跌的还互相谁也不服谁的，有意思吗？房价或升或跌都不重要，关键是结合自己的实际情况理智分析，不要贪，也不要怕。顺便提醒大家一下，现在已经快九月了，美联署开始退出QE进入加息通道最早今年八月最晚也不会超过明年年初了，最近中国也主动挑起针对欧美日在华企业的反垄断调查，至于到时真会发生什么事，谁也不知道啊，但我只知道这次的交锋不会是小摩擦。投资的自己看着办吧。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-22 12:42:20

吥噜发表于 2014-8-22 10:52
凡事不要说太绝，留点余地。论坛里整天一群人嚷嚷什么房价必升或房价必跌的还互相谁也不服谁的，有意思吗？ ...

当然，是不能说的太绝。说不定明天就是世界末日，投不投资都没所谓了，呵呵。

美联储退出QE才知道啊，美国马上进入加息通道才知道啊。为什么加息啊？说明美国经济复苏才加息啦，这又不是什么坏事。

中国与这些外资的摩擦这些年来就没停止过，只是用不同的形式而已，能有什么大风浪？

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2014-8-22 13:14:16

有人是先有观点再找证据，证据反了就直接忽略，哈哈，很厉害

作者: 寻金 时间: 2014-8-22 18:36:14

Lease 发表于 2014-8-22 11:42
当然，是不能说的太绝。说不定明天就是世界末日，投不投资都没所谓了，呵呵。

美联储退出QE才知道 ...

lol.看来你不太懂金融的东西。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-22 18:55:48

寻金发表于 2014-8-22 17:36
lol.看来你不太懂金融的东西。

洗耳恭听。。。。

作者: vijay 时间: 2014-8-22 23:01:47

房子一般说，长期看涨，要早买。

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2014-8-23 00:22:44

Lease 发表于 2014-8-22 11:42
当然，是不能说的太绝。说不定明天就是世界末日，投不投资都没所谓了，呵呵。

美联储退出QE才知道 ...

呵呵，美联署加息是因为美联署说的＂美国经济好转预期＂，美联署说的这个话你也敢信？那前美某总统说过的我打伊拉克是因为它有大杀器你也就信了？美元开始加息那一天就一定是某几个国家要准备陆续倒下去的时候了，走下坡路的美欧要联合引发一场新金融经济危机趁机洗劫全球这已是不争的事实，至于这些准备被宰割的国家和中国如何着手应对我想我都没必要多说了吧，连美联署加息究竟要干啥你都不弄不清楚人家的目的，其他的我再说怕你也消化不了。世界末日不至于，因为最后总有人收拾残局重建新规矩的，但这个斗争转变的过程是曲折的，新西兰的房市或多或少肯定受其局势的发展冲击，因为离摊牌的关键时刻已经临近，所以投资才需慎重，当然你看不见海啸要来不怪你，只是出于人道主义精神该提醒你的义务也是要尽的。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-23 00:31:19

吥噜发表于 2014-8-22 23:22
呵呵，美联署加息是因为美联署说的＂美国经济好转预期＂，美联署说的这个话你也敢信？那前美某总统说过的 ...

我只能说你太会意淫了。没那么复杂。这个世界几乎所有的事情，只要你读懂了人性，你就知道怎样去应对，当然包括投资。

作者: love_3_month 时间: 2014-8-23 11:04:46

吥噜发表于 2014-8-22 23:22
呵呵，美联署加息是因为美联署说的＂美国经济好转预期＂，美联署说的这个话你也敢信？那前美某总统说过的 ...

是的，绝对是共济会的阴谋！

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-23 11:45:45

love_3_month 发表于 2014-8-23 10:04
是的，绝对是共济会的阴谋！

可惜他不是共济会的成员，呵呵。

作者: leonfish 时间: 2014-8-23 13:49:17

love_3_month 发表于 2014-8-23 10:04
是的，绝对是共济会的阴谋！

呵呵，是蜥蜴人的阴谋.....

作者: 吥噜 时间: 2014-8-24 01:07:52

Lease 发表于 2014-8-23 10:45
可惜他不是共济会的成员，呵呵。

你又不是我，你怎么知道我不是成员？呵呵

作者: 寻金 时间: 2014-8-24 07:38:27

Lease 发表于 2014-8-22 17:55
洗耳恭听。。。。

没啥说的。你分析的涨，我分析的跌都各有自己的理由。这和外汇股票买卖一样。明年成交价格出来就知道了。我另外一个分析帖子都说了，欢迎被打脸。

当然我不是神。john key是玩金融的，国家党是向钱看的东西。大选完了钱没赚够继续把泡吹大点不是不可能。数据？呵呵就跟美国忽悠全世界一样，不忽悠你赚谁的钱。一小撮有钱人在玩转全世界。说多了你也不懂，或者也不信。

我想如果我问你们因为 “人口移民” “增加” 断定房子要涨。现在国内一线城市房价跌是啥问题啊？难道人口减少了还是外来人口(移民)都回乡了？需求不旺盛了？跌这么多怎么有钱人还不抄底啊？李嘉诚怎么还在出货啊？傻子房价怎么可能跌呢！

你肯定能给我n个和人口没关的问题让我洗耳恭听。当然我也只有闲的蛋疼的时候才会上来回复。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-24 09:19:06

寻金发表于 2014-8-24 06:38
没啥说的。你分析的涨，我分析的跌都各有自己的理由。这和外汇股票买卖一样。明年成交价格出来就知道了。 ...

行啦，你这炒外汇的，就老老实实炒你的外汇吧，别来班门弄斧的分析房地产。你们外汇持有一个月叫长线，我们房地产持有十年叫长线，这是两种total different 的投资产品，玩法完全不同。就算明年房价下跌（只是顺你的话，我并不认为明年房价会跌），房地产长线投资仍然收益不菲。

作者: onetreehill1 时间: 2014-8-24 10:44:10

Lease 发表于 2014-8-24 08:19
行啦，你这炒外汇的，就老老实实炒你的外汇吧，别来班门弄斧的分析房地产。你们外汇持有一个月叫长线，我 ...

一个玩篮球的人去告诉人家怎么玩足球，这不是闹笑话吗？外汇和房产完全不搭边界的2个东西，就算房产也有很多种玩法

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-8-24 12:34:21

onetreehill1 发表于 2014-8-24 09:44
一个玩篮球的人去告诉人家怎么玩足球，这不是闹笑话吗？外汇和房产完全不搭边界的2个东西，就算房产也有很 ...

就是，记得前段时间另外一个炒外汇的也到这论坛上来，说什么炒房子不容易变现，把自己的资金都压死在房子上了。哇擦，谁投资房产用自己的钱啊？这种连基本房产投资常识都没有的人居然还敢来分析房地产。

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