frzheng 发表于 2014-6-12 09:16
利息涨，房价涨，汇率涨！还让人活吗？汇率涨，出口少，工作机会少了。中国经济最近都这样了，新西兰马上一 ...
Statement issued by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler:
The Reserve Bank today increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.
New Zealand’s economic expansion has considerable momentum, with GDP estimated to have grown by around 4 percent in the year to June. Global financial conditions remain very accommodative and are reflected in low long-term interest rates and narrow risk spreads. Economic growth among New Zealand’s trading partners is gradually improving and global inflation remains low.
Prices for New Zealand’s export commodities remain historically high, but their recent falls will reduce farm incomes over the coming year. A continued acceleration in construction in Canterbury, and more broadly, is supporting growth, together with strong net immigration flows that are adding to housing and household demand. Business and consumer confidence remains buoyant, as do businesses’ reported intentions to invest and to hire.
While house price inflation remains high, the housing market has moderated since late last year when restrictions were applied to high loan-to-value ratio mortgage lending and when mortgage interest rates began rising. Fiscal consolidation continues to moderate demand growth, though by less than previously assumed. The exchange rate has not yet adjusted to weakening commodity prices, but is expected to do so. The Bank does not believe the exchange rate is sustainable at current levels.
Headline inflation remains moderate and tradables inflation is expected to be low for some time. However, above-trend growth has been absorbing spare capacity and adding pressure to non-tradables inflation. These pressures are particularly evident in construction cost increases. Nevertheless, overall wage inflation remains moderate, reflecting recent low headline inflation, increased labour force participation and strong net immigration.
Inflationary pressures are expected to increase. In this environment, it is important that inflation expectations remain contained and that interest rates return to a more neutral level. The speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on future economic and financial data, and its implications for inflationary pressures.
By increasing the OCR as needed to keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target mid-point, the Bank is seeking to ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained.
View the Monetary Policy Statement at
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/monetary_policy_statement/
以下是我的评论：
关于NZD vs USD 汇率
对于汇率的重点在这句“The exchange rate has not yet adjusted to weakening commodity prices, but is expected to do so. The Bank does not believe the exchange rate is sustainable at current levels.”
按我之前的预测，纽币会先涨后降。至于降到多少还是要看接下来的经济数据或央行在之后的言论。会趋向于0.84.
关于OCR接下来的增长
重点在这句“The speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on future economic and financial data, and its implications for inflationary pressures.”
这句话细读之下cover了央行半年之前说预计涨到百分之多少的言论的a*s。 也就是说具体会涨到多少和涨多快都是灵活的，看经济状况，我们之前说的不算数。
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以下是转帖天维新闻 statement的简化中文版 为英文不好或不想看英文的筒子们
天维网6月12日报道，援引NZ Herald消息 周四上午，新西兰央行宣布将官方现金利率（OCR）提高25个基准点，达到3.25%。这是自今年3月以来第三次加息。
根据此前路透社的调查，大多数经济师都预计到了这次加息。经过连续第三次加息后，OCR已经比年初提高了75个基准点，达到3.25%。
央行行长Graeme Wheeler预期，通胀压力将会增加，但最重要的是通胀预期可控，利率则需要回到更加中性的水平。
央行预计，截至今年6月，新西兰GDP全年增长率将达到4%。他承认，在过去两三年，利率在推动经济增长的问题上扮演重要角色。Wheeler解释说，近期经济增长的势头决定了无需再维持低利率，相反要更加考虑通胀压力的问题。
在周四上午的报告中，Wheeler强调了净移民流入和收入增加对经济的冲击。在这两项的影响下，住房需求持续增加。随着供应增加，央行预计房价通胀率会变得温和。截至今年5月，新西兰房价年增长8.2%，是9个月以来增速最慢的一个月。Wheeler表示，这意味着去年10月实施的高LVR先带领已经达到了目的。
央行预计，移民流入的高峰会出现在2014年中期，预计全年净流入移民人数会达到37,000人
frzheng 发表于 2014-6-12 09:16
利息涨，房价涨，汇率涨！还让人活吗？汇率涨，出口少，工作机会少了。中国经济最近都这样了，新西兰马上一 ...
songinator 发表于 2014-6-12 09:19
有涨就有跌。全涨了以后经济下滑，inflation比预期下降，然后接下来的半年OCR都不用再动或有可能下滑。然 ...
songinator 发表于 2014-6-12 09:19
有涨就有跌。全涨了以后经济下滑，inflation比预期下降，然后接下来的半年OCR都不用再动或有可能下滑。然 ...
Squirrel212 发表于 2014-6-12 09:22
赌输了，今天还要买morning tea 到公司。 我老板又说对了。
x-ray 发表于 2014-6-12 09:48
SELL SELL SELL
onetreehill1 发表于 2014-6-12 10:40
这次应该是NZ央行今年最后一次加息了。
利息涨，房价涨，汇率涨，除非行长不想再干下去了，所以这次是今 ...
十月的天空 发表于 2014-6-12 10:45
请问下次议息是啥时候。
LYYX 发表于 2014-6-12 10:43
不管怎么升,依然处于较低位（26/07/2007--23/07/2008 OCR--8.25%),他再升几次（明年四月4%？），我们就麻木 ...
onetreehill1 发表于 2014-6-12 10:43
不过就算央行再想在今年内加息也挡不住房价的继续上涨，行长也说了，今年净移民将到高峰，买房需求在不断增 ...
songinator 发表于 2014-6-12 10:55
我说过 就是这个夏天的事了
Venox10111 发表于 2014-6-12 11:14
2014年 CV + 30% 卖
heroyu1180 发表于 2014-6-12 12:39
新西兰可能有次贷危机吗？
heroyu1180 发表于 2014-6-12 12:58
可能新西兰的经济实体太小，不足以产生危机，但感觉新西兰经济要见顶了！
heroyu1180 发表于 2014-6-12 12:58
可能新西兰的经济实体太小，不足以产生危机，但感觉新西兰经济要见顶了！
mwe23 发表于 2014-6-12 13:09
不知道你们有人是故意误导大家，还是不懂常识！利息越高，房价越低！利息升高是因为房价高的结果，不是因！
mwe23 发表于 2014-6-12 13:09
不知道你们有人是故意误导大家，还是不懂常识！利息越高，房价越低！利息升高是因为房价高的结果，不是因！
肉肉妈 发表于 2014-6-12 13:22
利息越高，房价越低，这个是对的。比如说，08年利息很高，房价就比现在低。哈哈。
songinator 发表于 2014-6-12 13:24
没有可比性
肉肉妈 发表于 2014-6-12 13:27
别一板一眼了，笑一笑好不好。
Jack1010 发表于 2014-6-12 13:34
我觉得加息只是刚刚开始，后面有的好加加了，大家不信等着看。
songinator 发表于 2014-6-12 13:28
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