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标题: ZT: Mortgage pain time [打印本页]

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-3-13 08:22:28 标题: ZT: Mortgage pain time

本帖最后由 NewLynnHse 于 2014-3-13 17:56 编辑

Mortgage pain time: Official interest rate rises to 2.75 per cent

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9822918/Mortgage-pain-time-Official-interest-rate-rises-to-2-75-per-cent

he increase this morning kicks off what is likely to be an extended run of rate rises over the next two years, with economists expecting the next increase in April.

Floating-mortgage rates are now about 5.75 per cent, but could rise to about 8 per cent in the next couple of years, or more, if the Reserve Bank moves the official rate as much as expected.

Some economists say borrowers could face rises of as much as 150 basis points this year alone, with more to follow in 2015.

If the official rate rises 1 percentage point by the end of this year, that will add another $20 a week for a family for each $100,000 they borrowed, the economists say.

.......

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-3-13 08:23:12

OCR up to 2.75pc

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/busine ... p;objectid=11218306

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler lifted the official cash rate a quarter-point to 2.75 per cent in the first move of a tightening cycle, and signalled potential for a steeper track for future hikes as he tries to prevent inflation accelerating.

"While headline inflation has been moderate, inflationary pressures are increasing and are expected to continue doing so over the next two years," Wheeler said in a statement. "The speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures."

The Reserve Bank sees a faster pace of inflation than in its December forecast, with the consumers price index rising to 2 per cent as soon as the June quarter, a level the bank had previously expected in mid-2015. While a strong currency will keep a lid on imported inflation, the bank expects non-tradable inflation to increase to about 4 per cent.

The monetary policy statement said the bank expects "the OCR will need to rise by about 2 percentage points over the next two years for inflation to settle around the target," depending on the economic outlook.

"By increasing the OCR as needed to keep future average inflation near the 2 per cent target mid-point, the bank is seeking to ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained," Wheeler said. He's tasked with keeping CPI between a range of 1 and 3 per cent, with a target to keep inflation near the mid-point.
..........

作者: li.ht 时间: 2014-3-13 13:57:13

yeah! at last lol

作者: aniceguy 时间: 2014-3-13 15:26:44

真心觉得RBNZ有点过急了，现在的CPI才1.6，远不到它的目标区间中值2.0，而且纽币已经很高了，经济除了房地产相关行业都乏善可陈，唯一的顾虑奥克兰房价涨太多，但现在已经明显慢下来了。
所以真不觉得新西兰有这个资格，在发达国家中作领先进入升息通道的领头羊。
我觉得今年它未必能加够一个点，亲们，你们怎么看？

作者: crazyhair 时间: 2014-3-13 15:28:47

mortgate涨，房租会不会跟着涨？

作者: songinator 时间: 2014-3-13 15:29:42

aniceguy 发表于 2014-3-13 15:26
真心觉得RBNZ有点过急了，现在的CPI才1.6，远不到它的目标区间中值2.0，而且纽币已经很高了，经济除了房地产 ...

之前说了很久要涨涨一次让大家消停了至少让那些喊涨的人消停了然后继续观察CPI 就跟美国削减QE一样
结果过一段一看啊呀房价降了（涨的少了） CPI被房价拉高的部分下来了比如到1或者到1以内就又该降了至少不涨了
因为食品价格实在下降的只是因为房子把cpi拉高了而已

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-3-13 15:34:18

songinator 发表于 2014-3-13 16:29
之前说了很久要涨涨一次让大家消停了至少让那些喊涨的人消停了然后继续观察CPI 就跟美国削减QE一样
...

你做梦去吧。

作者: aniceguy 时间: 2014-3-13 15:34:31

songinator 发表于 2014-3-13 16:29
之前说了很久要涨涨一次让大家消停了至少让那些喊涨的人消停了然后继续观察CPI 就跟美国削减QE一样
...

对啊，对啊，很有道理

作者: ideyate 时间: 2014-3-13 15:36:17

Lease 发表于 2014-3-13 16:34
你做梦去吧。

Lease觉得房价还要涨？

作者: aniceguy 时间: 2014-3-13 15:36:28

crazyhair 发表于 2014-3-13 16:28
mortgate涨，房租会不会跟着涨？

房租是年年涨的，只是经济好的时候，涨得快一点而已。利率高，对租金应该是个利好吧，只是不很明显吧

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-3-13 15:38:20

ideyate 发表于 2014-3-13 16:36
Lease觉得房价还要涨？

是滴。。。。。。

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2014-3-13 15:47:22

for $400k loan, will be paying $80 more a month. about $20 a week :)

landlord is recommended to increase rent for about $20 a week.

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-3-13 15:53:28

bungyjumping999 发表于 2014-3-13 16:47
for $400k loan, will be paying $80 more a month. about $20 a week :)

landlord is recommended to ...

For mature investors, it was prepared for rate hike ages ago. Today's rise is just a piece of cake.

I do wish property price goes down so it'll provide me entry opportunities, but I don't think my dream can come to pass.

作者: vvcb 时间: 2014-3-13 16:04:48

bungyjumping999 发表于 2014-3-13 15:47
for $400k loan, will be paying $80 more a month. about $20 a week :)

landlord is recommended to ...

当利息涨到6的时候，你每周要多付50刀，涨到7的时候，每周要多付100刀，这些钱你都让房客出？我看你还是想办法多赚点钱早点把贷款还清再说吧。

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2014-3-13 16:10:49

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2014-3-13 16:14 编辑

vvcb 发表于 2014-3-13 16:04
当利息涨到6的时候，你每周要多付50刀，涨到7的时候，每周要多付100刀，这些钱你都让房客出？我看你还是想 ...

perhaps you should get into property fast... not me.

my loan is well paid off when glenfield and sunnynook property was at $300k

作者: aafu 时间: 2014-3-13 16:35:56

当用利息对房价宣战时，每次先死掉的是新西兰的经济。最好再多涨几点，看热钱不把新西兰淹死。进来的钱投哪？看包括中国在内新兴经济体的遭遇就知道了。指望由此打压房市，央行真是读书读傻了。央行这帮脑袋进水的家伙是在向世界证明谁是世界上更傻的人，也就难怪即使给这个国家一座金山，很快它也会变成穷光蛋。真的一点不能怪别人。

作者: 一晃就10年 时间: 2014-3-13 17:56:51

本帖最后由一晃就10年于 2014-3-13 17:58 编辑

LS的说法不对，加息抑制房价不是新西兰央行想的注意，全世界央行都这么干，而且现在也不是新西兰一个国家加息，很多发达国家都开始加息了，想当年降息的时候新西兰也是跟着别人屁股后头干的，所以不存在热钱只流到新西兰的情况。

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-3-13 18:29:18

一晃就10年发表于 2014-3-13 18:56
LS的说法不对，加息抑制房价不是新西兰央行想的注意，全世界央行都这么干，而且现在也不是新西兰一个国家加 ...

NZ is the first developed nation to rise official interest rate.

作者: 一晃就10年 时间: 2014-3-13 18:49:40

南非，印度，土耳其等新兴国家都已经加了，热钱更容易往这些国家流吧。

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2014-3-13 18:54:11

一晃就10年发表于 2014-3-13 18:49
南非，印度，土耳其等新兴国家都已经加了，热钱更容易往这些国家流吧。

these countries increase interest rate is to prevent their money flowing overseas....

Overseas investors / own local people are leaving those countries and take away their money with them.. To prevent capital outflow, they increase interest rate to attract them to stay back.

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-3-13 19:20:19

楼上正解，再楼上的请注意，我说的是：NZ is the first DEVELOPED nation to rise official interest rate.

南非，印度，土耳其都不是developed nation.

作者: 一晃就10年 时间: 2014-3-13 19:44:40

没人说他们是developed nation，说的是新兴国家啊，热钱会往这些国家流，所以不会造成新西兰热钱过剩被淹死的局面。

作者: bungyjumping999 时间: 2014-3-13 19:48:10

本帖最后由 bungyjumping999 于 2014-3-13 19:51 编辑

一晃就10年发表于 2014-3-13 19:44
没人说他们是developed nation，说的是新兴国家啊，热钱会往这些国家流，所以不会造成新西兰热钱过剩被淹死 ...

money is flowing out from those countries, not flowing in.

Increase interest won't help money flowing in. Question of security, people are scared to put money in those countries, doesn't matter how high their interest is.

Where do people want to park their money as safer heaven?

作者: Lease 时间: 2014-3-13 19:48:46

一晃就10年发表于 2014-3-13 20:44
没人说他们是developed nation，说的是新兴国家啊，热钱会往这些国家流，所以不会造成新西兰热钱过剩被淹死 ...

楼上那个写英语的已经把为什么这些国家加息的原因写得很清楚了。若你不懂英语就让他写中文给你解释。

作者: 一晃就10年 时间: 2014-3-13 19:55:26

放心吧，钱会自己选择的，会找新的金砖4国，但绝不会是新西兰，经济结构太小而且单一，真进来1000亿用来干嘛？

作者: 一晃就10年 时间: 2014-3-13 19:55:50

没人说他们是developed nation，说的是新兴国家啊，热钱会往这些国家流，所以不会造成新西兰热钱过剩被淹死的局面。

作者: winny 时间: 2014-3-13 20:54:32

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-3-14 08:36:22

Lease 发表于 2014-3-13 16:53
For mature investors, it was prepared for rate hike ages ago. Today's rise is just a piece of cake ...

很难想象真的有加这么点利息就扛不住的人

作者: xp_theman 时间: 2014-3-14 09:19:53

NewLynnHse 发表于 2014-3-14 09:36
很难想象真的有加这么点利息就扛不住的人

Not us. But think about those young kiwi couple who borrow 800k to buy a nice new house.
It is going to be more and more stressful

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