标题: ZT：Bernard Hickey: Predictions need a pinch of salt [打印本页] 作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2014-1-26 07:35:23 标题: ZT：Bernard Hickey: Predictions need a pinch of salt
Pre-empting a rates hike and fixing your mortgage may not be a sure-fire plan
It's the surest of sure things, says every economist - interest rates will rise more than 2 per cent over the next two years, so now is the time to fix your mortgage to avoid the pain.
But borrowers with longer memories will recall we've been here many times over the past five years, and every time the prediction has been quashed by an unexpected event that meant interest rates didn't rise much, or at all.
Every December quarter since 2009, the Reserve Bank has said it would increase the official cash rate over the next two years. That forecast increase has varied between 0.8 and almost 3 per cent, but an increase has always been expected.
The biggest scare was in December 2009, when the Reserve Bank forecast the cash rate would rise more than 2.5 per cent to at least 5 per cent, suggesting variable rates of well over 8 per cent. Many economists recommended fixing mortgages for two years or more, and many borrowers took their advice. Some thought they were very clever and fixed them for five years at more than 8.5 per cent, fearing a return to 2007/08 level rates of more than 10 per cent.