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标题: ZT:A successful building plan will result in a 10,000home oversupply in Auckland [打印本页]

作者: NewLynnHse 时间: 2013-11-27 07:52:02 标题: ZT:A successful building plan will result in a 10,000home oversupply in Auckland

平衡一下

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11163240

Auckland's housing shortage is smaller than officials think and if the Housing Accord reaches its target over the next three years there could be an oversupply of 10,000 homes, says the Institute of Economic Research.

The institute argued this year that the Auckland Council's estimate of a shortage of 20,000 to 30,000 homes is too high, because it is not convinced the average number of people per household will continue to fall at the rate it has in the past and because the upsurge in net immigration represents fewer people leaving the country rather than an upsurge in immigration - a pattern that tends to support population levels in the provinces rather than swell the number of Aucklanders.

Since then the Census recorded slower population growth in Auckland than previously estimated, NZIER says in its latest quarterly predictions. At 1.2 per cent a year between 2006 and 2013 it was 0.4 percentage points weaker than expected.

NZIER estimates the shortage of housing at around 5000 homes.

"If the Housing Accord is successful in delivering 39,000 homes and sections, we estimate it will result in an oversupply of 10,000 homes. A significant increase in the housing supply, alongside the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool highly geared credit growth, is a significant risk for house prices in Auckland," NZIER principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub said.

A sharp pick-up in building activity, not only in Canterbury but in Auckland, is a key factor underpinning NZIER's forecast of 3 per cent economic growth next year - the strongest since 2007.

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作者: 蓝山小野猫商铺 时间: 2013-11-27 08:08:00

平衡的沙发。。。

作者: 0409JYI 时间: 2013-11-27 10:07:06

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作者: GoldenRetriever 时间: 2013-11-27 16:34:42

很快大家就会发现其实不缺房

作者: 我要买车 时间: 2013-11-27 17:15:26

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作者: onetreehill1 时间: 2013-11-27 17:19:31

0409JYI 发表于 2013-11-27 11:07
也表示怀疑，如果真的很缺，租金应该上涨的多吧。

租金是在涨啊，我的今年放租的房租金就比去年要高很多了

作者: ybbest 时间: 2013-11-27 19:19:41

本帖最后由 ybbest 于 2013-11-27 20:20 编辑

GoldenRetriever 发表于 2013-11-27 17:34
很快大家就会发现其实不缺房

我觉得自住房还是短缺的，因为很多plaster的漏水放很不好卖，买房的人也不愿意买。所以有plaster的人要么自己留着自主要么出租。所以在auckland真正的买卖的房源应该是所有的房子刨除plaster的漏水房。而租房市场，这些plaster的漏水放是可以租的，有很多townhouse只是有漏水的风险，并没有漏水，房子的居住条件很好，租金的回报也很好。

作者: winny 时间: 2013-11-27 21:12:03

作者: mimisa 时间: 2013-11-27 22:07:30

onetreehill1 发表于 2013-11-27 17:19
租金是在涨啊，我的今年放租的房租金就比去年要高很多了

租金高低只和房贷多少有关，和租房需求无关。真要算就算空置率

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