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标题: Does any one work at Rakon ? what is wrong with this company !!! [打印本页]

作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-13 13:23:24     标题: Does any one work at Rakon ? what is wrong with this company !!!

Rakon used to be the darling of NZ high tech industry, i.e.  went public in 2006, at the peak, Rakon shares was $5.80 in 2007. Today, the share price is $0.27 !!!!

what is fundenmentally wrong with this company !! Does anyone work at Rakon, or know anyone work at Rakon ?
作者: iris    时间: 2013-2-13 13:33:51

the share price droped >20% today, I saw that, curious too, whats wrong?
作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-13 13:55:28

iris 发表于 2013-2-13 13:33
the share price droped >20% today, I saw that, curious too, whats wrong?

For today, it because Rakon's new forcast for FY2013 is down to EBITA 5 to 7 million, and they also said some rather disturbing thing, like bank is concerns, and their company's asset total value of 180m is under investigation.... some rather odd things to say
作者: 呵呵    时间: 2013-2-13 13:56:39

oh mate, i hope you did not put your hard-earned money in that dog. have a read their latest announcement. To paraphrase:

1. We are definitely price takers and our customers just told us the new price for our products. Its lower than before.
2. We either screwed up our currency hedging (once again) and/or have no idea how to manage our company so have halved our expected profits in 6 months.
3. We have been guessing (read overestimating) the value of our assets for the past few years and someone of importance wants to know what the actual value is.
4. The Company is compliant with its bank covenants. Which is double speak for:- The bank is worried about its money, and has been in touch. Things are not looking good. On paper at least we still comply, but.................
作者: iris    时间: 2013-2-13 14:10:06

yeah when the phrase"bank covenants"appear, share price will jump
i feel sorry for those bought the share yesterday...
作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-13 14:27:30

呵呵 发表于 2013-2-13 13:56
oh mate, i hope you did not put your hard-earned money in that dog. have a read their latest announc ...

I was so close,, so so close to buy in at 37c two days ago, luckily i didnt...
作者: Grassheaven    时间: 2013-2-13 14:41:03

i think its about time to buy
作者: Lease    时间: 2013-2-13 17:26:22

呵呵 发表于 2013-2-13 13:56
oh mate, i hope you did not put your hard-earned money in that dog. have a read their latest announc ...

I think they have revised the wording of announcement as I go to NZX website and can't see the four points you paraphrased.

Tech sector is an extremely high risk one. Today's pop star can be easily out of date tomorrow. This was particularly the case at dot.com crash twelve years ago.

For RAK, not only it is at a high risk sector, but it has manipulated its book as well. If the assets on balance sheet are guessed only, how can they passed by auditor?
作者: 阿海    时间: 2013-2-13 18:15:49

the company has grown far bigger than the capability of the senior management.

enough said.
作者: guncritx    时间: 2013-2-14 07:48:03

They need a better ceo or md who knows how to drive such a huge company
作者: jan4victory    时间: 2013-2-14 08:25:52

No Chinese allowed in this Thread?
作者: NewLynnHse    时间: 2013-2-14 08:54:21

jan4victory 发表于 2013-2-14 07:25
No Chinese allowed in this Thread?

hahaha.....
作者: 呵呵    时间: 2013-2-14 11:22:06

ysun062 发表于 2013-2-13 14:27
I was so close,, so so close to buy in at 37c two days ago, luckily i didnt...

ok mate. lucky you!

i hope none of us put our kiwisaver into AMP? they have put loads of dollars into this dog, for a long time, lol...
作者: Lease    时间: 2013-2-14 12:57:27

本帖最后由 Lease 于 2013-2-14 16:30 编辑

Although it's hindsight, Rakon case can be negative examplefor investors to learn.

I have briefly gone through its 2012 financial report, and noted followings:

P8, The preparation of financial statements in accordance with NZ IFRS requiresmanagement to make judgements, estimates and assumptions that affect theapplication of policies and reported amounts of assets and liabilities, incomeand expenses. Actual results may differ from these estimates.

My comment: that means NZ accounting standards allow company to guess its numbers.

P14, Critical accounting estimates and assumptions

The Group makes estimates and assumptions concerning the future. The resultingaccounting estimates will, by definition, rarely equal the related actualresults. The estimates and assumptions that have a significant risk of causinga material adjustment to the carrying amounts of assets and liabilities withinthe next financial year are outlined below.

(a) Estimated impairment of goodwill

The Group tests annually whether goodwill has suffered any impairment, inaccordance with the accounting policy stated in note 2.9. The recoverableamounts of cash-generating units have been determined based on value-in-usecalculations. These calculations require the use of estimates. Refer note 22.

(b) Income taxes

The Group is subject to income taxes in numerous jurisdictions. Significantjudgement is required in determining the worldwide provision for income taxes.There are many transactions and calculations for which the ultimate taxdetermination is uncertain during the ordinary course of business. The Grouprecognises liabilities for anticipated tax audit issues based on estimates ofwhether additional taxes will be due. Where the final tax outcome of thesematters is different from the amounts that were initially recorded, suchdifferences will impact the income tax and deferred tax provisions in theperiod in which such determination is made.

(c) Provisions for inventory obsolescence

The Group makes estimates and assumptions regarding the value of inventoryobsolescence, these are based on the existing available information. Refer note16.

My comment: the Company indeed has guessed its assets and liabilities. Especially for Goodwill, see below.

P38, 22. Impairment tests for goodwill

The recoverable amount of a CGU is determined based on value in usecalculations.

These calculations use post-tax cash flow projections based on financial budgetsand models approved by the directors covering a four year period due to productlife cycles and their pricing trends. Projections for this four year period arebased on industry forecasts of continued significant growth in sales ofwireless devices including smart phones and significant increases in theutilisation intensity of these devices. This growth is expected to translateinto investment by operators into new network infrastructure to handle theincrease in data traffic. Rakon‘s projection is to both benefit from theindustry trend and secure an increasing share of the market for both devicesand infrastructure reflecting the quality of its product range, technologyadvantages, manufacturing competitiveness and diversity. The actual rate of growthmay differ from the projections used.

My comment: Directors are too optimistic on company's products, result in overestimated goodwill(assets).

Lesson to learn: If the financial reports contain too many assumptions andestimations, investors had better avoid such companies.


作者: 花天堂    时间: 2013-2-14 13:20:00

after doing a bit of research into what they do.... no think its good to buy in.
作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-14 15:47:34

花天堂 发表于 2013-2-14 13:20
after doing a bit of research into what they do.... no think its good to buy in.

i am very attempted to buy in, there might be a dead cat bounce
作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-14 15:48:44

呵呵 发表于 2013-2-14 11:22
ok mate. lucky you!

i hope none of us put our kiwisaver into AMP? they have put loads of dolla ...

yea,, was a lucky escape, cant afford to risk hard earn money
作者: 花天堂    时间: 2013-2-14 15:52:59

ysun062 发表于 2013-2-14 15:47
i am very attempted to buy in, there might be a dead cat bounce

dude they're facing competition from Asia and all.
作者: iris    时间: 2013-2-14 16:02:13

why everybody use english?I only do becasue im at work
作者: YelenaBelova    时间: 2013-2-14 16:02:40

提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-14 16:38:24

iris 发表于 2013-2-14 16:02
why everybody use english?I only do becasue im at work

I uses english on forum, because i cant type fast in chinese, and its easier to do at work
作者: ysun062    时间: 2013-2-14 16:38:51

YelenaBelova 发表于 2013-2-14 16:02
都是英文, 让我这个华人怎么和你们交流..............

just give your view in chinese, we can all read chinese !
作者: haxiao    时间: 2013-2-14 17:16:56

Lease 发表于 2013-2-14 12:57
Although it's hindsight, Rakon case can be negative examplefor investors to learn.

I have briefly ...

most public listed companies having their FR stating it, and by saying test, it is far more than just "guessing" or "self-optimistic judging" there are certain rules to prevent the company from manipulating the figure.."
作者: Lease    时间: 2013-2-14 17:20:49

haxiao 发表于 2013-2-14 17:16
most public listed companies having their FR stating it, and by saying test, it is far more than j ...

After reading its financial report, I think it may be inappropriate to call the management is dishonest. But they are definitely incompetent, as their forecast and estimations are far from the real results.
作者: 静海以南    时间: 2013-2-14 18:27:30

Rakon is the case study for 2012 PAS/PCE
should be good business but they just can't manage well, family business, keen competition, high NZD etc etc...
作者: Lease    时间: 2013-2-14 22:36:59

在这之前从来没听说过Rakon这家公司,看到这贴后才上了公司网站了解一下。我觉这公司的业务需要持续的投入研发成本,不然其产品就很容易过时。所以我觉这不是什么好的business,。在我看来,好的business是那些产品基本上不需要怎么改变,但消费者对产品有持续的需求,并且消费者对其产品的忠诚度很高。比如,麦当劳。




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